'Special Report' All-Star Panel on the 2022 midterm landscape

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Fox polls reveal the latest on November's midterm matchups

'Special Report' panel weigh in on the competitive races in Wisconsin, Georgia and others ahead of the 2022 November midterm elections.

This is a rush transcript of "Special Report with Bret Baier" on September 15, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

BAIER: President Biden and Florida Governor DeSantis talking about the aftermath of hurricane Ian in Florida. Meantime, we are less than six weeks to the midterms, and political ads in Florida, there are a number of close races down there, are continuing, much to the chagrin of the former governor Jeb Bush, who was asked about it. He said, quote, "I think campaigns should shift to helping what will be hundreds of thousands of Floridians that will need a lot of assistance," said former program governor Jeb Bush. He obviously saw Florida through a number of big hurricanes.

Let's bring in our panel, Guy Benson, political editor at Townhall.com, host of "The Guy Benson Show" on FOX News Radio, syndicated radio host Hugh Hewitt, and Jeff Mason, White House correspondent for Reuters. Jeff, when one of these big disasters happens, usually politics is put on the back burner, at least for some time. We are closing in on the midterms, though, and it is always hanging above us.

JEFF MASON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, "REUTERS": We are. What is interesting is the politics at the presidential level, which is not -- this is not a presidential year. But there is a possibility that Biden and DeSantis could potentially be rivals in the 2024 election. Today they both seemed to set that aside, and President Biden's remarks at FEMA, he talked about having spoken to the governor four or five times. He said the governor complemented him and the federal government response. And he also said this is not about politics. So it was interesting to see him setting that aside, and apparently the governor setting that aside, as well.

But in the state, yes, those ads are still playing, and there's a lot riding on them.

BAIER: Let's focus in on the midterms. Here's Senator Mitch McConnell about Senate chances.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY): In every election, every year, this year, past years, it's great to have terrific candidates. We are in a bunch of close races. I think we have a 50/50 shot of getting the Senate back. It's going to be really, really close either way, in my view.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Even privately, according to the Associated Press, he has had some more comments. "The comments reflect a greater degree of optimism from the GOP leader after he drew criticism last month from fellow Republicans when he downplayed the party's chance in the fall election, saying it would be more likely for the party to gain control of the House than the Senate." Hugh, there are some new polls out today, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin in our latest poll up four, tight race in Georgia. Your sense of things, you think Senator McConnell is seeing something behind the scenes?

HUGH HEWITT, SYNDICATED RADIO HOST: As a Republican, I am real happy, Bret, not only with the FOX polls. Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold by five points 12 years ago. He beat him again by three-and-a-half points. Russ Feingold was a mainstream Democrat. Mandela Barnes is way out there on the left, and that is beginning to tell. And Ron Johnson is a heck of a retail politician, so I think that one is in the bag.

Dr. Oz is surging, Herschel is surging, pretty much Adam Laxalt in Nevada has got it in the bag. Blake Masters is behind but closing, and the Joe O'Dea and Tiffany Smiley in Colorado and Washington state respectively, it's a good map for the Republicans. If you offered the objective observer, which one do you want? Do you want the Republican chances in a 50/50 Senate or do you want the Democratic chances, I think four out of five people would take the Republican chances walking away.

BAIER: Let me put up that Wisconsin Senate poll again. Ron Johnson 48 percent, Mandela Barnes 44. Guy, you were just in Wisconsin. She shift has changed?

GUY BENSON, POLITICAL EDITOR, TOWNHALL.COM: I was up in the Northwoods area last week talking to a lot of very plugged-in people in Wisconsin politics, and they told me that they have never felt more bullish and more confident about Senator Johnson, his position. This was really before a whole slew of polls rally confirmed what they were telling me, that Johnson is maybe not ahead to the point that it's in the bag, with respect to Hugh, but getting there, perhaps. And Barnes, his record, there is a lot to go after there, and the Republicans are doing so.

It's the governor's race in that state that they say is a total coin flip at this point and could go either way. In Wisconsin, it always seems like a big turnout battle, with both sides trying to mobilize their bases, and not that many persuadables.

BAIER: You look at these states, Jeff, and you look at Georgia and Arizona and Pennsylvania, and then you look back to 2020, and there we were, Georgia and Arizona and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are very tight races. In the Georgia Senate race, Raphael Warnock in our poll has a five- point lead. In the Georgia governor's race, Brian Kemp, the Republican, has a seven-point lead on Stacey Abrams, which is a fascinating dichotomy in that state.

MASON: It is. And it's also apropos of what you were just saying, Guy. Having a poll lead in June or July or August is pretty irrelevant. What matters is the final stretch. And races tighten, and that is what we are seeing right now, at least in some of the polling that you guys had out today. It's tightening in favor of Republicans. That's not the day before the election. A lot can still change in the next six weeks, but that trend is favorable certainly for the Republicans right now.

BAIER: Hugh, besides the average tightening that happens as we get closer to election, what else do you think is shifting here? Obviously, the abortion issue and the Dobbs decision had an effect. We saw it in polls for Democrats for a couple of weeks. But in the past two, three weeks, it does seem to have shifted, and maybe crime and immigration has jumped up on the list.

HEWITT: And gasoline, Bret. In California gas is back over $6 a gallon. Adam Laxalt told me on the air this morning gas is over $6 in Las Vegas, it's about $5.85 across the state. There's some states where it's close to $3.50, but the president keeps going out and saying in some places it's below $3 a gallon. That just doesn't line up with the reality of the average voter. Add that in with the cost of food, as we've talked about on this show before, and inflation becomes the number one issue, and where it's not, it's crime. And those are issue sets on which Republicans don't merely win, they dominate. So the flow is very good for the Republicans. Six weeks is a long time, but the flow is very good.

BAIER: I found it interests that Chuck Schumer today said this is it, we are not voting anymore, we are not coming back, because everybody is going home and it's going to be campaign full-court press until Election Day.

BENSON: Exactly. They want to get their incumbents back home to campaign for the next six weeks. And to Hugh's point and to your previous question, I think what we might be seeing now is the fundamentals of this cycle, which have always favored Republicans, perhaps reasserting themselves. Things receded a bit over the summer, but if you look at the presidential approval, right track-wrong track, economic indicators, these things should all favor the Republicans, and maybe we are starting to see the numbers reflect that a bit more again.

BAIER: By the way, let's just take this shot outside. This sunset is spectacular. Not to take the camera away from you, Jeff, but it is a beautiful sunset in Washington. Occasionally we get those here. Last thing, is it baked in the cake? You said a lot can happen, but we are starting to get into the nitty-gritty.

MASON: Yes, well, I think a lot can happen. We have seen that in every single election cycle I've ever covered. But the homestretch is the home stretch, and if you are trending up, that's good for you.

BAIER: All right, panel, as always, thank you.

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