Predicting the 2012 presidential election

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Predicting the 2012 presidential election

Las Vegas odds-maker and Colorado professor put odds on a Romney win

This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," October 19, 2012. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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BILL O'REILLY: In the "Impact" segment tonight, it is not legal to bet on the presidential race here in the USA. A lot of people do it, of course. But in Great Britain, the odds are two to one that President Obama is going to win. Most people believe the vote is going to be very close but not everybody.

Joining us from Denver, Kenneth Bickers he's a political science professor at the University of Colorado. And from Las Vegas, Wayne Allyn Root, odds maker who currently -- who correctly I say predicted the 2004 election. Mr. Root who is going to win on November 6th and how do you know?

WAYNE ALLYN ROOT, LAS VEGAS ODDSMAKER: Well, I'll tell you what, I'm a gut instinct guy, Bill. And I've been saying since I put out my commentary in May that Romney would win by a landslide. And by the way let me point out in December I made my New Year's prediction and I said Mitt Romney would win the Republican nomination in a cake walk and at the time he was doing badly to pretty much every single person running and I said he would go on to win the election.

It was in May that I made the determination that I felt a landslide was coming and I doubled down here on Fox News and other places around the country about two weeks ago and said it will in fact be an electoral landslide five to seven points popular vote and 100 to 120 electoral vote victory for Mitt Romney.

O'REILLY: All right, but you know the polls don't say that. So what is it? What do you have a little magic ball? Do you have Ms. Clio in the basement? I mean, what is -- you've got to give me one thing that is making you so confident.

ROOT: Well, I think it's Reagan/Carter all over again. That's what I've said from day one --

O'REILLY: All right, so you're basically going on feeling. You're going on feeling.

ROOTS: Well feeling -- feeling and the people I know. You know, my friends are all small business men and women. I happen to be Jewish. I know lots of moderates and liberal Democratic Jewish voters. I know a lot of my old neighborhood in New York Catholic voters and back four years ago they were all willing to give Obama a chance.

And four years later back in this spring when I came out with this prediction, every single person I knew who owned a small business said I can't take another four years of Obama.

O'REILLY: All right.

ROOT: I'm voting Romney. And I just felt it was -- it added up to a very big victory. There has been a giant sea change in this country.

O'REILLY: All right, now Dr. Bickers, as you have a little bit more of analytical, you being a professor at the University of Colorado, a little more analytical approach. Who do you think is going to win and why?

KENNETH BICKERS, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO: Well, we agree that Governor Romney is going to win. We think it's going to be around 330 Electoral College votes he'll win. It's not based on any gut instinct and it's certainly not based on talking to other people in Boulder.

The only gamble I have made is that they will still talk to me if I'm associated with this kind of a prediction model. This is based on looking back at elections all the way back to 1980. And what my colleague and I have done is to model the Electoral College contests as 51 separate contests, the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.

So based on -- on the past voting behavior in those states, and where unemployment stands and real income per capita stands in each of those states, what is the voting pattern and what we see going back over time is that when conditions are as they are across as many states as they are, that the in party, the incumbent, in this case President Obama doesn't win these kinds of elections in those states.

O'REILLY: But there is a lot of emotion tied into Mr. Obama because of his skin color, because of his presentation. And by the way, Colorado is a very, very important state. Do you predict that Mitt Romney is going to carry your state?

BICKERS: We do. We show that Governor Romney will carry Colorado. We show that he is going to carry most of the battleground states -- not all of them but most of the battleground states. And -- and what you see in the polls right now is trend lines that are opening up more of the states for Mr. Romney, closing down some of the states that previously were in the Obama category. Florida, North Carolina, for example.

(CROSSTALK)

O'REILLY: I tend to agree -- I tend to agree with you, Doctor and -- and by design, by from -- with Mr. Root as well because of two things. Number one, I think that Mitt Romney is going to have a very strong performance on Monday night because of the Libya thing that we just -- you know that we're covering here on -- which there is no explanation for the Obama administration's behavior with four dead Americans.

There just isn't any explanation. People don't like that. And then that synergizes with the much more important issue for them, their wallet. And it's basically you are creating what Jimmy Carter had. You got a bad economy. You've got the Iranians holding Americans and you've got the perception of a weak administration.

ROOT: Right, can I -- can I jump in Bill.

O'REILLY: And that's -- that's the last break I think to help Mitt Romney. Ok, 30 seconds, Mr. Root, go.

ROOT: I have been saying from the beginning there is a couple of factors -- economy by far above everything else. Number two is I think there is going to be the Chick-Fil-A election. Remember what happened over the gay marriage issue? The millions of Christians that lined up to help Chick-Fil-A those same people will be lined up on Election Day, 20 million of Evangelicals who didn't vote in the last election are going to be there and they are going to be there strong for Mitt Romney.

And follow the money. Last time Obama outraised McCain and outspent him 10 to one in the last two weeks. I'll bet you any dollar right now Mitt Romney outspends in the last two weeks Obama by a big margin.

O'REILLY: All right, gentlemen. Very, very interesting. We appreciate it.

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