This is a rush transcript from "Hannity," November 2, 2021. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS HOST: And welcome to HANNITY and this is a FOX News alert on this election night. The polls are now officially closed in New York, New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Virginia where all eyes are on the race between Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Now, coming up we have a full packed hour county by county analysis Bill Hammer at the big board as well as the vote totals as they continue to stream in.

Keep looking at the board on your screen, this will be the most important thing to watch all night. And keep in mind, just last year, Joe Biden, he won the Commonwealth of Virginia by 10 points. Now, Joe is underwater in Virginia by nearly 10 points. That is a 20-point swing.

And tonight, what could be a clear referendum on the deeply unpopular Joe Biden and his administration the race is now shaping up to be extremely close. As we speak, Democrats all across the country are panicking, according to exit polls, the economy was the top issue for Virginia voters and the economy is now in a state of chaos.

We have historic levels of inflation. We have slow economic growth. We have labor shortages, supply chain issues, and at the very core of all of this is rising gas prices, as the president again begging OPEC and Russia to produce more oil -- he could ask Texas and Oklahoma -- anyway, all in the name of climate change. And according to the exit polls, climate change -- well, that ranked near the bottom for voters in Virginia in terms of their concerns.

And meanwhile, education was the second most important issue for Virginia voters. Now, this is Terry McAuliffe's campaign consisted of two things, Donald Trump and all of those racist parents who want to have a say in their kids education, how dare they?

But tonight, Democrats might be in for a rude awakening. Calling everyone a racist blaming Donald Trump for everything -- well, it might not be the winnable strategy they thought it would be. Spending trillions of dollars on socialist policies, driving up taxes, inflation, gas prices may not be so popular. Cutting domestic oil gas production in the name of climate change, while simultaneously firing American energy workers, giving Vladimir Putin a waiver, all Virginia has not had a competitive governor's race in 12 years. This race will go down to the wire, that we can tell you.

All right. We start tonight with full analysis out of Virginia. Now, we start with Bill Hemmer. He's got the most important job of the night. He is at the big board and why you have the most important job for this reason.

BILL HEMMER, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: What's that?

HANNITY: Is Glenn Youngkin's campaign, are they meeting expectations in the areas where they need to do well? And are they exceeding expectations in areas that you would expect the Democrat to do better?

HEMMER: Well, I think you're right on both counts right now, Sean. You're at 64 percent of the vote in right now, in the tally, okay? Look, there's a little bit of vote out there still Fairfax County, big county, heavily populated.

Good evening to you, by the way. And, Sean, welcome to our coverage.

I'm going to show you two historically Democratic -- well not historically but they have voted Democrat, they have been blue for some time. Remember northern Virginia here, Washington, D.C., you got southwestern Virginia coming down here, this is the Richmond area, then Hampton roads down here.

Right here, Sean, a moment ago, Richmond City County clocked in, not a ton of vote here, five and a half percent. But Terry McAuliffe is about 60 -- 70 percent of the vote. You would expect that in Richmond. But here's what I want you to take notice of.

The suburb to the north and the county to the north and the county to the south, these are suburban voters, Chesterfield to the south, and then right go to the north. Let me explain in Henrico first, all right? This has been blue for some time. Sean, this is an amazing thing now.

All right, McAuliffe with about 97 percent of the vote in, on a percentage basis now is it 54 percent. Okay, I want you to see what Joe Biden did months ago, on a percentage basis, almost 64 percent. Ralph Northam, four years ago, on a percentage basis now, he was at 60 percent. Terry McAuliffe in 2021, just come back to present day here, he's underperforming in this county by five points. That's an extraordinary measure in an election that seems to be razor tight.

Now, I'll go to the southern part of Richmond here. This is Chesterfield. This was one of our target counties that we thought really this is a key to watch. Right now, Youngkin outperforming his margin that he needs on a percentage basis in order to win statewide we had him at the low end around he's up on that by at least three maybe four points and you've got 88 percent of the vote reporting there in Chesterfield County as well.

Now, let me take you down to the southeastern part of the state, show you another Democratic County. Kamala Harris was there last Friday, Terry McAuliffe campaigned there many times, little dot the map here. That's Norfolk County, heavily Democratic, strong African American vote. You have three quarters of the vote in right now.

McAuliffe's only at 61-1/2 percent. So historically how does that rate on a percentage basis four years ago? Look where Northam was. He was at 73. Again, yet McAuliffe is underperforming in areas where you would expect him to do much better there, I'll just pop down here to see how this is a Virginia Beach has been watching this 57 percent in.

That's a good number for Youngkin. Let me just pop around here Chesapeake County. Okay, you're at 60 percent for Youngkin and just about half the vote has been tabulated there in the southeastern part of Hampton Roads, Tidewater region of Virginia.

Now, I want to show you what's happening in the rural southwest. This big swath of red right here, this has been dominated by -- now, look you would expect Youngkin to win this part of the state. That's not the argument here. The question is in rural Virginia, how well do you do? Look at that. That's 88 percent.

Let's pop over here to Lee County, you're almost at 90 percent. Tazewell, I've been keeping an eye on this all night, you're at 86.7. These are dominating numbers.

Why does that matter, okay? It matters, because in a close race, if you add up all these rural counties and you're picking up a hundred votes here and a thousand votes there and a close race statewide, that can make a big difference in who wins and who loses and right now, Youngkin, he's outperforming here in southwestern Virginia, some of the suburbs around Richmond, he's outperforming there as well. His team has to feel very good about their positioning so far tonight.

One other part of the state, Sean. This is Loudoun County. We bring it -- well, we're at 99 percent of the vote now, and Youngkin, just about 45 percent. So again, he's up by a few points from where we thought he would need to be in order to win across the state.

A lot of questions here about happening in Fairfax. I'll just let you know, they seem to have sped up their counting right now. It's a good sign here because the population rank is one out of 133 counties and cities, with about 57-1/2 percent of the vote, McAuliffe expected to do well here. We had in Fairfax, we had Youngkin, on a floor of 44 percent.

So he's right at that number right now. But again, you've got about 42, 43 percent of the vote still to be counted. So he could still get there but we'll see as we move throughout the evening. Two big bellwethers done a lot -- a deep dive on this our research team, Remy was doing this all weekend, Sean. You know what he found? There are two counties in the state of Virginia who's picked a winner correctly for years, are you ready, Sean? You want a quiz game here?

HANNITY: I'm ready. Go.

HEMMER: Okay. So this is Northampton, all right? At the moment, you've got a lead for Youngkin. You got about 13 percent of the vote out.

But right now, Northampton, if Youngkin were to win, they would -- they would hold up their reputation as being a bellwether in Virginia. Let's see whether or not that that hangs on, and this right here is Prince Edward County in Virginia. Now, well, you're getting pretty close. You're up over 92 percent, and Youngkin is hanging onto a lead.

So, if it stays that way, over the course of the next hour or two, or however longer it takes to see what comes in from Fairfax County and the rest of the state, if it stays that way, Northampton and come on -- Northampton and Prince Edward will remain the two bellwethers in Virginia for yet another historical governor's race, Sean.

HANNITY: Bill, do not leave that big board because we will be going back to you a lot throughout the evening, because that's where we're learning the most about what's really going on behind the scenes and comparing it to 2017, 2020, is extremely helpful. Bill hammer, we'll check in with Bill in a few minutes.

We check him first though with Sarah Carter. She has been in Virginia talking to a lot of voters all day and over the last two weeks. And she tonight is reporting from Youngkin's headquarters.

Sarah, what's the mood there?

SARA CARTER, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I got to tell you there is energy in the air. I'm here at Youngkin headquarters in Chantilly, Virginia, you can just feel it. There is overflow coming out of the main room behind me. Everybody's excited.

I got to tell you, the people working on Youngkin's campaign really feel like they have this. A lot of people are nervous they don't want to jinx it. Today, .

I spoke to a number of voters throughout Virginia. I actually even spoke to a McAuliffe voter. But the majority of people that I spoke to, Sean, were really focused on their child's education, on the economy and they believed that it was Youngkin that would deliver, whether they were independents, you know, I'm not sure if I interviewed any Democrats.

People were very cautious. They were concerned about like the divisions that they've seen in Virginia. But I think as a whole, most parents agree, especially in Loudoun County, that they need to be a part of their child's education. That was an astonishing statement that was made during the debate by Terry McAuliffe and really did him in.

I got to tell you, the people behind me are really raring to go they are ready and they believe they have a win in their sights.

HANNITY: All right. Sara Carter, we'll go back to Youngkin headquarters.

Tonight, here with some analysis, FOX News contributor Ari Fleischer, Arkansas gubernatorial candidate Sarah Sanders.

Ari, we start with you. A lot to absorb there, certainly looks good for Youngkin, the night's not over, but he seems to be outperforming past Republicans in the counties that he needs to outperform and he's exceeding expectations and the ones we would expect them to.

ARI FLEISCHER, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: He sure is, Sean, and I've got to say that why FOX has not yet called this race. David Wasserman, one of the most respected nonpartisan analysts that I know of has called the race and he's called it for Youngkin. In addition, he says the Republicans are going to win the attorney general race and the lieutenant governor's race in Virginia, three statewide pickups.

If he's right and it still is a if, Sean, here's why it's so significant there are two overlying trends that were started in the Trump years actually proceeded and then accelerated in the Trump years, one is that Republicans really became the dominant force among blue-collar lower-income rural voters. We see -- to see that accelerating even more tonight under Glenn Youngkin.

But the second was a bad news story for Republicans they started to lose the suburbs in big numbers or especially you had college educated voters. That seems to be reversing tonight. Republicans are competitive in the suburbs. They're not getting their clock cleaned.

The future for the Republican Party is to be the blue collar party that wins big in rural areas, wins big in the towns, but is competitive in the suburbs that is what looks like is happening in Virginia tonight.

HANNITY: I think a great analysis if we go back to, Sarah, that that's the whole theme of Donald Trump's campaign, the forgotten men, the forgotten women. If you look at the first three years of the Trump presidency, we had record low after record low after record low unemployment for Americans of every demographic group, numbers we'd never seen before. It seems that on issues involving the economy and education, these are -- these are issues that Republicans now are dominating if this continues to hold throughout the night.

SARAH SANDERS (R), ARKANSAS GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Absolutely. To me, this is a very clear at this point, a very bad night for Joe Biden and Democrats and frankly a great night for America. This is a complete and total rejection of the left's socialist agenda. We're seeing this surge, this momentum for Glenn Youngkin and Republicans and conservative values, whether it's on the economy, on education, on the border, a number of things that we are seeing come out tonight that are a total rejection of the left and the Democrats policies that they have been trying to slam down Americans throats over the course of the last months.

I think this is the beginning of a wave that we are going to see take place in 2022 where we have a firewall built of strong conservative governors across this country that are standing up and pushing back against the policies of Washington, pushing back against the policies of Joe Biden.

We're seeing that start right now tonight with Glenn Youngkin. I hope we see that here in my home state of Arkansas, and I think that we're going to see that across the country and I certainly hope so because we're going to need governors to step up and push back to make sure we preserve and save what matters most in this country.

HANNITY: Let me go back to you, Ari. Before Joe Biden went to Glasgow and fell asleep in front of the world and then apologized for America in front of the world and then for the third time was begging OPEC and Russia to produce more energy because he gave up energy independence, Joe wanted this deal, this New Green Deal socialism passed before he left. Now, what does that tell us about -- if this night holds the way we think it's going right now, what does that say about the Democratic Party and the Biden presidency?

FLEISCHER: Well, it tells you how the progressive agenda is not America's agenda and how out of touch the Democrats are if they think that is what's going to win them election. To put a finer point on what's happening in Virginia, particularly in the suburbs, what you really have and this is the risk that Democrats have going to is an anti-woke rebellion. Parents, people who college educated especially who gave up on the Republican Party are coming back to the Republican Party because it is not a good idea to keep telling Americans that America is systemically racist.

It is not a good idea to tell the American people that success in life is determined by what group you belong to not who you are as an individual and especially when the group is determined by race. This is what the modern day Democratic party is increasingly preaching and it's really put off a lot of suburban parents, especially moms. And you see this anti-woke rebellion.

The Democrats want to say it's all about critical race theory and that's a misnomer, it's about everything so much broader than that. They are bad- mouthing America in the name of putting down a lot of Americans and there's a rebellion in the suburbs against it and Glenn Youngkin has tapped into it and it's bringing Republicans back in the suburbs where Republicans have been losing.

HANNITY: Ari Fleischer, Sarah Sanders, thank you both. We'll get back to you throughout the hour.

Here now to explain more on FOX News voter analysis, our own Shannon Bream.

Shannon, it's been an interesting night so far, and it's getting more interesting by the minute.

SHANNON BREAM, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: You are so right, Sean. So let me tell you a little bit about Virginia.

Disagreements here over critical race theory, mask mandates, how much say that parents should have or shouldn't have about what their kids are learning, that pushed education to the very forefront of the governor's race. Now, Youngkin promised he would ban the teaching of critical race theory on day one as governor. Our FOX News analysis a survey finds that one quarter cited the debate over teaching CRT as the single most important factor to their vote for governor. Now, it follows that those folks backed Youngkin by a margin of points.

About two-thirds do though favor mass mandates in school and vaccines for teachers. About three-quarters of each of those groups go to McAuliffe, sentiment is stronger among the smaller groups who oppose mandates and Youngkin is getting nine out of ten of those votes not surprised. That is solid support though on both sides, very strong feelings on this very heated issue.

Now, how do voters think that Virginia schools are dealing with racism? The largest number, 41 percent, say there is too much focus on the issue. One- third think there's too little and a quarter feel that the school's approach right now to racism is about right.

Finally, the big picture, two-thirds say the country is heading in the wrong direction, quite the gloomy outlook but remains to be seen exactly how all of this will add up tonight as we are waiting and watching to call that winner, Sean, at any time.

HANNITY: You know, when you look at all the big picture items that we've been talking about, Afghanistan, the border, inflation, higher energy prices, more dependency, begging OPEC, begging Russia, for more production while simultaneously firing many high-paying union energy jobs, workers from these jobs, I don't think it's gone over well. Paying a buck more a gallon is not going over well, paying more for every item in every grocery store, every drugstore, that's not gone over well. Those are bread and butter issues.

Shannon, thank you. We'll get back to you.

Joining us now live from Youngkin headquarters from Virginia, FOX News correspondent Alexandria Hoff.

Crowd seems to be getting bigger by the minute.

ALEXANDRIA HOFF, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: It does. And you know, Youngkin has been doing a pretty good job of drawing crowds. This enthusiasm that has snowballed in recent weeks in this campaign is bubbling over here at his headquarters in Chantilly.

It's interesting, Sean. I was talking to a couple of supporters, one of which heads up Latinos for Youngkin. He's a registered independent. He said he voted for McAuliffe last time but his mind was changed on the issue of education. We will see how far that goes as a staple of this of this election and this entire race.

Another interesting note is we followed Youngkin down over the weekend. He toured far, far southwest Virginia which some could have assumed was maybe a waste of time that close to the election. And now that we're seeing some of these numbers coming out of the southwest, where voters are over performing and potentially giving him an edge in areas where he didn't expect to do as well. I mean, that is a tactic that they very may well pay off.

And it's something that campaigns across the country are going to analyze. They're going to look at this campaign, look at his emphasis on parents and his get out the vote efforts and perhaps apply it to races around the country coming up soon -- Sean.

HANNITY: All right. Alexandria, thank you. We'll get back to you within the hour.

Now, with the very latest from McAuliffe headquarters in McLean is Rich Henson.

Rich, what's going on there?

RICH HENSON, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good evening, Sean.

And over the past hour and a half or so, McAuliffe supporters have been filtering into this ball room. They really are scattered all throughout this hotel right now. They're glued to the television, hoping that the momentum in this race and what they've been seeing early on will change. But they've also been fighting against the momentum really of the last several weeks of a rising challenger there. They were up significantly in the polls over the summer and have seen a major reversal since then.

The McAuliffe campaign has tried to combat that a couple ways. One getting out the Democratic stars. They had President Biden here. They had Vice President Kamala Harris here the past couple weeks, urging Democrats to get to the polls.

They also had congressional Democrats. Senator Tim Kaine, Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, all in an attempt to churn out the Democratic vote as they hit Democratic -- largely Democratic cities throughout the state.

Another part of that strategy was to tie Glenn Youngkin as much as they could to former President Donald Trump, even though Terry McAuliffe told us specifically that he was not trying to make this racer about Donald Trump, he ended up raising the man's name at about every single event that he gave. So, as that continue to move forward, you saw a lot of these different teams begin to play off, hoping that they could stave off this late surge.

The other element to all of this is that early voting started in the middle of September. So, you had a number of ballots, some 1.1 million of them come through from September, all the way through Saturday, waiting for the rest to get that tally now.

Sean, back to you.

HANNITY: All right. Rich, thank you.

And tonight's race is yet another sign of not just Terry McAuliffe's failures but also Joe Biden's. Democrats, they are already preparing to deflect blame especially as Biden's far left socialist spending spree hangs in the balance on Capitol Hill, what impact that will ultimately have when he gets back and gets back to the drawing board, only -- I guess anyone can guess.

Here with reaction, we have former counselor to President Trump, Kellyanne Conway, along with former Republican Senator Scott Brown.

You know, I'm looking at it this way and I've just been looking at data now I'm going to give a little commentary and then I want your take on it. If you look at Biden's failure -- Kellyanne, I will start with you -- in Afghanistan, most Americans are against the idea of abandoning Americans behind enemy lines. If you look at the disaster at the border, if you look at the disaster -- more people dead from COVID in 2021 than 2020, if you look at inflation, if you look at a buck more a gallon and negatively impacting the budgets of poor and middle class Americans something Democrats swear they're never going to do, and then you couple it with say Terry McAuliffe saying, I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach, it seems to be a cascading effect that this party has made a hard left turn towards socialism and Virginia is saying no. Am I reading it the right way? Can you conflate them or are they separate?

KELLYANNE CONWAY, FORMER SENIOR COUNSELOR TO PRESIDENT TRUMP: No, it's all been this toxic stew that's been brewing for the last nine months of the Biden-Harris administration, Sean, and all the polls now show that. It began with Afghanistan. That was a real tipping point for Joe Biden's decline in the polls and his presidency. But it's now inflation in the cost of goods, it's now border security and immigration. It's now education.

When you see this NBC News poll where Donald Trump probably -- where Joe Biden probably won, you know, 95 percent of the vote of NBC News, you see their own poll now showing that Republicans are trusted on who's effective to get the job done, who's better on the economy, who's better on border security, who's better on national security.

But this is what's going on. If it's going on in Virginia, where Joe Biden won by 10 points, if you are a sitting member of Congress in the Senate or the House right now and you're a Democrat, you're going to think of retiring because if you're in Wisconsin, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, if you're in Nevada, if you're in all of these states where -- that Joe Biden carried with single digits or in the case of Ohio lost by nine, why in the world are you going to stick around if this is the party you no longer recognize?

Also, Terry McAuliffe has completely demolished this idea that that the Democrats should be running on "but Trump, but Trump". "But Trump" hit a big buzzsaw. Terry McAuliffe sounded like a robot with one button "but Trump, but Trump".

Joe Biden mentioned Trump, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama came in. None of that's working anymore because the Democratic party itself has lost touch with the people. They're selling something nobody wants to buy they're out of touch with the people and they have this out of control spending the problem with the Democrats to point out in that article is not that they didn't pass the legislation is that Americans and Virginians found out what is in the legislation and they don't want it.

Sean, one last thing if the whole ticket is carried tonight, we'll have the first woman of color ever elected statewide in Virginia and she is a Republican, Winsome Sears. That's big news. Let's see if she gets on the cover of all the fashion magazines. It's not even why she's there.

Look what happened a year ago with Kamala Harris. We don't even know where she is and what she's in charge of and what she's doing. She's been a very ineffective vice president. You see a woman of color as a Republican tonight winning statewide in the commonwealth of Virginia. That's big news moving forward to 2022.

HANNITY: Kellyanne, great analysis. Scott Brown, you had a similar situation and that was 2009, and you were going to be the final vote against Obamacare, which they eventually used the reconciliation process. A lot of similarities, but you are a Republican getting elected from a pretty liberal state known as Massachusetts, almost task impossible but you did pull it off. Unfortunately, they used a few maneuvers to prevent you from having that vote.

But more importantly, I think you could probably identify what we're watching unfold tonight.

SCOTT BROWN, FORMER U.S. SENATOR: Yeah, absolutely, it's like deja vu, brought back a lot of memories. I was down 41 points and ended up I think winning by nine. So, a lot of similarities when they tried to ram through Obamacare against the will of the voters. And here, they're doing CRT and reaching into the pocketbooks and wallets of American citizens all across the country, changing the very fabric of our country and expect everyone to say, oh, this is great, Joe's doing a great job. Well, listen, he's not and people are waking up not only our school committee men and women getting involved now finally, thank goodness, at the school committee level. They're going to the town councils, the selectmen, and getting involved in local politics because they recognize as in Minnesota's case, defunding the police, that this is just unacceptable. This is not the America that we all know and love.

And by the way, this is not JFK's party that's in charge right now. JFK would never ever be part of that party, and thank goodness we're having these signs come out early and it gives me respectfully we're on last week, I was a little scared. I'm hopeful now that that the people are kind of you know getting back to some type of rational thinking, understanding, in that we're not all racists, we don't all hate each other.

We're deep and thoughtful people. We have a very strong social fabric, and we want America to be the best and greatest country in the world. And we do that together, not by dividing us.

HANNITY: I also believe it's important that the Republican Party identify and be the party of working men and women, and liberty and freedom and low taxes and limited government and, yeah, even American First policies, and law and order, and choice in schools and education and secure borders and energy independence, all of these issues resonate and impact the lives of all of us, every American of every background.

Kellyanne Conway, Scott Brown --

CONWAY: That's the Trump 2016, Trump agenda, yes, and Youngkin tonight. It's a provable strategy absolutely. And don't insult the voters. You want them to vote for you, Sean, you don't insult the voters. You don't isolate parents. A great lesson tonight.

HANNITY: Yeah, that's a big lesson. Let's see if they learn.

We go back to the big board. Bill Hemmer standing by.

Okay, my count, we have 74 percent of the vote in bill, 54-45. If you would have told me at this hour at 9:27 Eastern Time, that Virginia would have a Republican up by nine, I probably wouldn't have taken the bet and I would have lost.

HEMMER: I don't think I would have taken that bet either, Sean. The reason why we can call it is up here in northern Virginia, this is Fairfax County, you only have less than 58 percent of the vote in. It's a heavily populated part of the state, Sean. Its population rank is one out of 133 counties and cities. That's the reason why we can't call this.

But, Sean, Republicans feel very good, right? They think they can win the lieutenant governor, the attorney general, the governor's race, and they think they can take back the Statehouse in Virginia. So, all that's on the line now.

Sean, three years ago, it -- that state house was 50/50. And based on the commonwealth rules, they put two names in a bowl and chose one and the Republican was selected and that's how they won the majority. He was sworn in January of 2000 -- I'm not making this up.

On the board here, Sean, you can interrupt me anytime you want, otherwise, I'll just keep on talking, okay?

HANNITY: You have a request as you get going. I do want to see Loudoun County in particular because we've talked so much about it yeah and obviously, this played a big part in it, and I love when you compare it to 2017 and 2020, because that puts a lot of perspective.

HEMMER: I'll do Loudon County first, I want to take you downstate and show you something that just blew me away a moment ago here.

Al right. Here's Loudoun County, you're at 99 percent all right - roughly speaking right now Youngkin is above the margin that he needed to get in that county based on pre-election predictions here.

Okay, I mean we just had a vote statewide in Virginia months ago right at the presidential level granted the turnout was much higher was more than 4 million voters, tonight, you had about 3 million voters turn out in Virginia. But here's where it was on the presidential level on a percentage basis.

Biden was at 62 percent in Loudoun County. Let's see where it was four years ago in the governor's race in all right you're about percent there for Ralph Northam, come back to 2021 and that's what we see on the board.

Sean, I want to take it down here this big swath of red right here, there's a -- there's a town called Blacksburg, Virginia, home of Virginia Tech, located right here in Montgomery County. This -- I thought the data was wrong but here you are at about 89 percent reporting. On a percentage basis, McAuliffe is shy of 39 percent, Youngkin is 60 percent. Well, where were we months ago in the presidential race Joe Biden won the county.

Come back here again to 2021, the governor's race, and you see Youngkin getting 60 percent of the vote. Well, how did that happen? I mean something was moving in in southwestern Virginia here. I'll take you back to 2017 again, same county Montgomery, the Democrat Ralph Northam easily beat Ed Gillespie in the same county and now in 2021, the vote's not all the way in but it's pretty darn close here and Youngkin's getting 60 percent of the vote.

I just find that extraordinary, Sean, and that's the reason why some of these prognosticators out there expect Youngkin to go on to a victory tonight. We haven't called it yet. I explained why because of Fairfax County up here in the north.

You mentioned Loudoun. We're watching that. Sean, I think this area is very interesting, this is Richmond. It's chesterfield to the south, Henrico to the north, you know what else is in here? You remember a guy in Congress by the name of Eric Cantor 10 years ago? Eric Cantor represented Virginia 7th. He was primaried and lost.

Well, later, Abigail Spanberger ran for that that district on the Democratic side back in 2018. She's won two races, both races she's won by two points each time. Sean, this is a swing district here, all right? This is Chesterfield, Richmond, Henrico, that's where that like it's like a pizza slice if you look out on a map there.

And I'll just show you what's happening in Chesterfield tonight. Youngkin is winning this county. You're at 19 percent of the vote. He's up about 10 points. He's going to go on to victory in Chesterfield. That's not entirely unexpected, but the margin appears to be though however.

Just pop in here to Richmond and see what's happening this vote came in a little late. You're at 40 percent. Expect it, it's a blue part of the state, but it's 65 percent, I would even argue and I'll show you in a moment, Sean, that that is underperforming from a call-off let's see what happened months ago. Look at Joe Biden, he was at 83 percent in Richmond City. That's -- that's a mind bender.

HANNITY: Bill, let me ask you this.

HEMMER: Northam was at 82 percent. Go ahead, Sean, yeah, listen.

HANNITY: Okay, so we have this nine point lead. We have 74 percent of the vote in right now. Let's look at the areas where there's the most outstanding vote and what that has shown us historically because now we're getting to the point Terry McAuliffe has to make up ground, where is the most likely area that would take place and what percentage of the vote is still out?

HEMMER: I mean, normally, I'd say Norfolk City would be yet. He's got 25 percent of the vote outstanding, but he's only at 62 percent of the vote. Sean, your query is the right one, the question is, is 62 percent going to do it against Youngkin?

Well, I mean historical comparison now the presidential election, Biden was at 72 percent. Four years ago, Northam was at 73 and a half, and now in 2021 -- I mean, this is just -- this has to be a flat out disappointment for Democrats and Terry McAuliffe. And in Norfolk City, Kamala Harris went down there a week ago, they had a big rally you would expect strong African-American vote deep Democratic roots in Norfolk. But he's just not turning the trick in that part of the state tonight.

The other one I'd say is Fairfax because I don't know what's happening with the outstanding 43 percent. That percentage breakdown here seems to be on par for historical concerns in Fairfax County, just because I'm curious. Sean, I'll show it to you.

Al right. It was 70-28, Biden to Trump, four years ago, it was 68-31, Northam over Gillespie, and just to refresh our memory here. So he he's running well in Fairfax County and that's the reason why we have been hesitant to make a call there. Does that help you by the way?

HANNITY: No, that helps -- everything you do helps, you're great at that board. You know, we at one point we used to call the HANNITY big board then, you took it over, it's a Hemmer big board.

I'm looking at New Jersey with 25 percent of the vote in, and right now, it's 50-49. The Republican at 49.

HEMMER: Well, let's check in. Our board shows of the vote is that what you're saying here?

HANNITY: Yes, sir.

HEMMER: Ciattarelli, Murphy at 50/50. We got a lot of things that's in New Jersey. I don't -- listen -- Fairfax County notwithstanding, I think Virginia's done a very good job of returning the votes so far tonight. Polls closed two hours and minutes ago and my I would say for the most part, Virginia's done a very good job.

(CROSSTALK)

HANNITY: I never like when counties and the county get stuck. I don't know. Just my suspicious Irish nature, I don't know.

HEMMER: Yeah, might be a pipe bust in the bathroom.

HANNITY: Yeah. All right. We're going to we're going to keep an eye now that now that it's tightened to the point, it's a one-point race in New Jersey. We'll check in with Eric Shawn throughout the hour. We'll get back to Bill Hemmer at the big board.

Here first with more reaction, we have former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, nationally syndicated radio talk show, Dana Loesch.

Reince, you and I had an off-camera conversation last night. We did a deep dive into the voting in Virginia. One, Republicans aren't doing good enough yet but they need to really embrace early voting because whether they like it or not that is the reality. They seem to do better here. The numbers we both felt were within a margin that Youngkin can overcome. So far, that appears to be unfolding. Your take on the results up to this point.

REINCE PRIEBUS, FORMER WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: Well, you're exactly, right, Sean. Look, I mean the Terry McAuliffe got himself completely boxed in. He got boxed in on local issues, which was totally about parental control of the schools. He got boxed in on national issues because Biden's mucking everything up from foreign policy, to the border, to the economy. I mean, even Democrats are ticked off with the president. So there is nowhere to go on national issues and in northern Virginia you got to have something to say about those national issues because that's the entire world around Washington, D.C.

And then the last thing, Youngkin is a happy warrior with a joyful spirit, and he's running against a guy who's bitter and ticked off every day, and people want to follow a happy warrior. So, Youngkin had the momentum, he had the message, he had the money and as Bill Hemmer just pointed out, there's not a single county or municipality in Virginia right now that if you're on the Youngkin campaign that you're looking at and saying hey this isn't going the way that I thought it would go in fact it's going better.

In every single market, the party, the RGA, the RNC, the Youngkin campaign, the MAGA voters, I mean, it's a team win and I think that -- I don't see where the -- you know, 200,000 votes now with half of Fairfax County in, it's -- this thing is not going to happen for Terry McAuliffe. It's a Youngkin win I think.

HANNITY: Let me go to you, Dana. As we have discussed at length on this program, the failing Biden agenda I can't cite a single item not and I'm trying to be charitable where I think Joe Biden can point to as a success. It's been a rough months of his presidency culminating with his sleeping yesterday, culminating with his apology for America and then culminating with begging OPEC for oil which I couldn't believe.

But more importantly, then you've got the situation here in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Really, it seems that Terry McAuliffe went off the rails on his own with his comment that I don't think parents should be telling schools what to teach.

To what extent is this more his fault or is it tied into a bigger narrative that the Democratic Party has moved so hardcore left, that they've lost touch with even people in Virginia which is a pretty blue state?

DANA LOESCH, RADIO HOST: I think you're completely right on that, Sean, and a point that our good friend Reince had just made there. Normally, somebody like Biden would have longer coattails, right? I mean, yes, I know it's just you know a year since that he's been elected. But Virginia, this was a state that he took plus 10 and now you have Terry McAuliffe who's this Democrat mainstay who's struggling so much.

I think to answer your question, it's kind of half and half because McAuliffe did not do himself any favors, right? The remarks where he was essentially challenging parents authority over their children and I don't I mean, I'm sure he's watching just completely dismayed from his headquarters right now because it looks like you know parents in Virginia are saying let's go Brandon loudly and clearly.

But Biden did not do McAuliffe any favors. In fact, Biden has not done any Democrats anywhere on any ballot any favors. He's actually created kind of a deficit that they have to run against. It's almost like they kind of have to run against him and not really with him, he's not bringing any momentum, he's not really going and stumping that much, he just mumble jumbles some stuff that nobody can really barely understand.

So it's been really difficult for them. They don't have a bunch of young guns to go out and kind of take up that yoke for him. So they really did the party to you know to your point the party really box themselves in here.

And one other point on this, Sean. They really did take people for granted. You know in the `90s, we had the soccer moms in the early aughts it was the security moms, and now it's the school board moms. And I cannot believe that we are going on this many decades of this and Democrats still have not learned that the most dangerous place to be is between a mother and her children. At some point, they'll learn this at the ballot box but it doesn't look like it's tonight.

HANNITY: Reince, what does this do for Biden's infrastructure bill? What does it do for the $3.5 trillion new green deal socialism that he has been pushing? What does it do to the dynamic of the radical squad seemingly leading the Democratic Party versus two holdouts named Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema who probably are thinking I told you so tonight, at this hour?

PRIEBUS: Yeah, that's a great point, Sean. I mean, look, there's only at 435 House seats, there's only about in play on a good day. Those are not districts where AOC all of this woke-ism, all of the spending is going to play. Look, this is the beginning it's a first round and a big battle to fight against this woke-ism that's taking over this country, that you know these constant race goggles that we're forced to wear. It's this corporate America that it's embracing this garbage and shoving it down people's throats.

You know, the one blessing of the coronavirus is it caused all of us, me included, to pay attention more what's happening in our kids schools, getting involved, looking at what our kids are reading. And I think this is just the beginning of a total and complete rejection and a complete embrace again of what it is that we're about as a country and hopefully this is the beginning.

And Glenn Youngkin's a great person to lead that effort in Virginia and I just -- I mean honestly could not be more happy I'm sure a lot of people are right now where we're at in this race.

HANNITY: You know, Dana, I try and explain conservatism in a minute and I want you to give your definition if it's different than mine and it has to be rooted in the forgotten men and women of this country. That that to me they're the most important people they're the ones that really make America great. It should be about liberty, freedom, it should be about capitalism, our Constitution, limited government, less regulation, lower taxes, law and order so we can have peace and security to pursue happiness, free market solutions for health care, not government solutions, choice in school. School is a big issue in Virginia. Then secure borders and energy independence, constitutionalists on the bench, free and fair trade, and peace through strength. What am I missing?

LOESCH: I don't think you're missing anything, Sean. It's all about limited government and realizing that government is empowered by the individual not vice versa. I mean, that's the that's the you know second elevator pitch of it and that's one thing that is a lot of people are being attracted to.

You know, Sean, one of the things that you've noted I know that every that other people on FOX tonight have noted this is the people that have been speaking out and pushing against all of this stuff, because this really is it -- we say wokism and we say critical race theory, but what we're talking about is institutionalized Marxist racism, and the deconstruction of the idea of this republic, the very principles of this republic.

And that's what everybody's fighting against. One of the loudest voices, one of the parents groups that's been pushing back against this in Virginia has been run by a Muslim Democrat mother. People can't say that this is all Republicans and they can't say that it's all white families either. In my neighborhood, in my town, in fact we have a another board another school board fight tonight and it looks like we're going to take a third seat with Andrew Yeager who's so far winning against a pro-CRT institutionalized Marxist racism candidate, doing incredibly well. We have Cuban families and Hispanic families that have been leading the fight because a lot of families are coming from places where they've seen what's happened when the government has more power over the individual and they don't want to see that taught here and they don't want to see it implemented here.

And furthermore, in last point, Sean, one of the important things about conservatism is the belief in a sovereign that is greater than us and that is our first identifying principle. We are people who identify as children of a kingdom not as Democrats or Republicans first or white or black first. We all have true equality under in that kingdom and that's the big thing.

That's why it was very important for our founders say virtue and our belief in a sovereign deity, a sovereign god. That's what makes our nation so great.

HANNITY: Dana, thank you, and Reince, thank you. Stay with us. We'll get back to you in this hour.

Joining us now with the very latest, I'm -- I'm looking at the state of New Jersey and it's 49.9, the Republican up over the current Governor Murphy 49.3. Now granted only 31 percent of the vote is in, but if you would have told me that that would be the case with 31 percent of the vote in, Eric Shawn, I don't think I would have taken that bet either tonight.

ERIC SHAWN, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, you're right, Sean. Jack Ciattarelli who's the Republican candidate former assemblyman said that he thinks that this race is a lot tighter than the post has shown and certainly by seeing this squeaker that we're going through right now tonight, this was not supposed to happen. This was basically supposed to be a blowout or at least having uh incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy win by a comfortable four to six points if not eight points. But it is incredibly tight and the issues that you're seeing in Virginia, Shawn, tonight are also resonating here in New Jersey. Maybe not as strongly, but they are still resonating quite loudly.

Of course, New Jersey is the highest tax state in the nation. That has been one of the major issues if not the major issues that Republican gubernatorial candidates have won with that happened with Christy Todd Whitman, with Chris Christie, especially after uh Jim Florio in 1993 pushed through a three billion dollar tax hike. Well, Jack Ciattarelli kept on hammering away at Phil Murphy as being too liberal, too progressive, even though he's trying to get the state budget situation in order.

He says he is not right, has not been right for New Jersey, specifically talking about the school curriculum and some of the parental control issues that we've seen erupting with school boards across the nation and Ciattarelli and some of the debates even took pointed uh differences with teaching sex ed to sixth graders and bringing some of these issues into kindergartners and the curriculum that's being taught in the public schools here in this state.

Of course, the Democrats have an edge. They have a million voter edge over Republicans here and Phil Murphy won his election four years ago by 14 percent of the vote, and President Biden carried the Garden State by 16 percent, but no one, Sean, no one expected this race to be as close as it is tonight with some of those same issues that we've seen that potentially bringing Republicans to victory in Virginia in the commonwealth there also being it seems repeated tonight here in the Garden State.

But it is still of course early, but it seems at least those Republican candidates trying to get some themes and hammer away on some issues that resonate at the kitchen table and at home among moms and dads and others it's happening here it seems in New Jersey tonight. But of course, it's too early it's going to be a later night than they thought here in the Garden State, Sean.

HANNITY: All right. With 32 percent of the vote in, the Republican is up by a point we're watching this a little more than a point now actually a point and a half. That was a surprise. We will watch that closely.

We go back though in the meantime to Glenn Youngkin headquarters. Sara Carter is back with us.

Sara, I've got to believe, 80 percent of the vote in right now, that room seems to get seems to be getting louder as the night goes on.

CARTER: I got to tell you, Sean, it's the energy in here is electric. People are just on the edge of their seats they do believe -- I've talked to people who say, I don't want to say anything yet, I don't want to jinx it. They're excited. They feel a change is coming to Virginia.

This is such a significant election. I got to tell you. Everyone I've been speaking to, there isn't a person that doesn't tell me, this isn't the beginning of a red wave across the United States. So, Glenn Youngkin is just the beginning.

Look at that I mean they love you here, Sean. They love you. They're ready to spread the red wave across America. I'm so excited to be here. This is history. Really, really is.

Just --

HANNITY: Hey, Sara --

CARTER: Thank you.

HANNITY: Hey, Sara, can you say, Sean Hannity says hello and congratulations early?

CARTER: Yeah, hey, everyone, Sean Hannity says hello, congratulations.

HANNITY: Oh there's three .people, I got three votes, that was great..

Anyway, Sara, we'll get back to you.

CARTER: So loud in here.

HANNITY: I can tell.

Anyway, thank you. Joining us now with reaction, FOX News contributors Joe Concha, Leo 2.0 Terrell. I think all three of us are on record I predicted a two-point win in Virginia. Leo -

LEO TERRELL, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: I predicted a win.

HANNITY: You did?

(CROSSTALK)

HANNITY: Leo, go ahead.

TERRELL: No, I put it out on Twitter an hour ago, it's over. He won Virginia. Glenn Youngkin, congratulations.

HANNITY: Okay, they still got it counted. It's 80 percent of the votes. But it's 53-46. Youngkin has maintained a strong lead throughout the whole night.

I'll be honest, Joe Concha, I thought the FOX poll was an outlier poll. I might be proven wrong, I looked at the internals and it was an eight-point race, and I said this just doesn't fit with every other poll that I'm reading and if they're right and I'm wrong I will humbly apologize.

JOE CONCHA, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: And the FOX poll a week ago had Youngkin winning by about this margin, eight points. So it looks like Terry McAuliffe is running out of runway at this point with 80 percent counted, as you said.

But, Sean, we are witnessing a political earthquake tonight, straight out of the San Andreas Fault, if that fault was on the East Coast.

And by the way, the Lincoln Project, along with Bill Kristol; who plays a conservative on Twitter, they endorsed Terry McAuliffe. And as usual they lost again as they always do with every state race. Those -- and I'll say this generously -- scumbags who concocted a white nationalist hoax against Glenn Youngkin and the most pathetic in that political stunt we've seen in modern politics only help seal McAuliffe's fate. So that's really that that's very delicious.

You could go in front of your home right now and burn money in the street before donating to those clowns or listen to Bill Kristol. But in Virginia, as you've mentioned McAuliffe tried to run against Donald Trump instead of junking in this race. The former governor even bought in Joe Biden, who brought Trump 24 times in one relatively short speech just last week. And that's what happens when you have nothing to run on, especially education.

Now, we're seeing in New Jersey where I am, Jack Ciattarelli up here a little bit in this state and even if Phil Murphy somehow pulls this out and wins a close one, Joe Biden won this state by 16 points a year ago. The president's coattails are non-existent. He is toxic.

It will be a red tsunami in 2022. Nancy Pelosi will be retired as House speaker after the GOP takes that chamber, Congress, and say hello to Mitch McConnell as your Senate majority leader again.

And look just percent of Democrats say they want Joe Biden to be their nominee in 2024. And Kamala Harris, that's your plan B? You have to wonder if the Democratic Party with no real bench, who could they run if the ticket right now and Biden and Harris isn't your answer? Stacey Abrams? Marianne Williamson? Bernie again? Mayor Pete?

I mean, this is going to have ramifications. The Virginia result and a possible New Jersey result for weeks, months and even years to come. Because this shows you where Joe Biden is at this point in the eyes of the American people, Sean.

HANNITY: I agree with that. And I don't think enough people -- the White House is doing everything that they can do to distance themselves from this disaster. I don't think Joe Biden helped anybody. Look at the border, look at Afghanistan. Look at begging OPEC, energy prices, heating prices. The prices of goods and services. The supply chain issues.

Leo, last word this segment.

TERRELL: I'll be very simple. The race card is dead. The last minute out of desperation, McAuliffe tried to use the race card.

Make sure this is clear. This is about education, this is about parents rights. The race card is no longer applicable.

I say to the Democrats, go back to the drawing board, because people like myself have left the Democratic party because when they don't have ideas, when they don't play with facts, they throw up the race card and that is a surrender sign. When they use the race card, they surrender. They have no facts and no argument. They're trying to get you to be divisive.

The people in Virginia and hopefully the people of New Jersey have spoken. We want issues involving our kids, we don't want critical race theory, we want to have people govern us and give us liberty and freedom. That's what's happening in Virginia right now.

HANNITY: All right. Thank you, Leo Terrell and Joe Concha.

We turn back to Bill Hemmer at the big board.

Ok, we have 80 percent of the vote in. Let's go back -- Terry McAuliffe, Bill, is running out of runway here. For example, he spent a lot of time tonight going over very specific counties, Fairfax in particular. Where are we now in terms of the vote counted percentage?

HEMMER: Got it. I want to show you something, Sean. Fairfax County just clicked in at 81 percent. So they're counting them up here. Richmond was lagging. They got 2/3s of the vote in. They're catching up as well. Reason that Joe Biden was above 81 percent 11 months ago.

HANNITY: Catching up here and releasing the count.

(CROSSTALK)

HEMMER: Yes. Correction noted.

I want you to -- this is the current state of the race in Virginia 2021, this is where it was four years ago. It's red and blue on the map. Subtle changes here. They make a point.

This is 2017 between Ralph Northam, an easy winner over Ed Gillespie. Where is the difference in 2021? There's 2017.

I point right down here in these areas. I'll go -- this is Montgomery county. That is a real shocker. How that county can be blue, blue, blue and all of a sudden tonight it's 60 percent Republican. Prince Edward, a smaller county, fewer people. One of these bellwethers that we talked about it down here in the southeast, the Hampton roads area.

Watch what I do with the map here. You can see the counties that have gone from blue to red throughout the course of the night. If all the numbers hold up, that will be quite impressive.

Let me take you again. I want to emphasize this, Sean. Richmond city -- we just got another batch dumped here. You're at 76 percent. So again, as I mentioned we're getting closer now with Richmond city outstanding a moment ago. It's not the case now, 3/4 of the vote is in. Fairfax at 81 percent.

McAuliffe, we expected him to win this county. He's up 2-1 right now. So that is the reason why you can't make a statewide call, a lot of votes up here in northern Virginia.

You want to know about Loudon? You'll ask me. Am I wrong? You were going to ask about Loudoun County. McAuliffe will win the county. That's an impressive number for Youngkin. He got his voters to the polls.

I would argue, Sean, if you want to break down this state knowing that we have not declared a winner here, this is what I'd say is the story so far. That is the rural area, Youngkin has shown that he can get a greater percentage of the vote even over Donald Trump in some of these counties. That is story number 1 in the rural area.

Story number 2 is south of Richmond. Chesterfield. Youngkin is outperformed by four points in that county alone. So it's the rural area, it's the suburbs and Loudoun County I would argue, Sean, is the issues county in this campaign. Youngkin did better than he had -- that he needed to do so far tonight. So Fairfax, Richmond, we'll get more to you momentarily.

HANNITY: By the way, the decision desk has protected Republican Mike Carrie, the 15th district there as the winner of that special election.

Bill Hemmer, you've been doing a great job at the board. When you put it in perspective and we look back at 20 and compare to the 2017 and look at the percentages and then you look at the massive shift, we could be talking about a 15 percent shift in voters from Democratic to Republican.

HEMMER: You could.

HANNITY: In a one-year period of time.

HEMMER: Sean, that crosses political lines, crosses social lines, crosses the issues line here. McAuliffe has badly outperformed at this point in the race.

HANNITY: Absolutely. Not a lot of runway as we've pointed out. 82 percent of the vote in. Thank you, Bill Hemmer. You've been great. We appreciate it.

HEMMER: Yeah, Sean, good to be with you.

HANNITY: We bring back in Ari Fleischer who is with us as well as Sarah Sanders.

Ari, let's look at the big picture. That is the impact on the Biden agenda. There were two people that were resistant to this new green deal socialism. That was Senator Manchin West Virginia and Senator Sinema of Arizona. I would imagine that this agenda now gets re-visited by a lot of people that probably want to win in the next election in 2022, a year from now and maybe they don't want to go down that socialist path that apparently is not working well for Democrats.

FLEISCHER: Well, you know, West Virginia and Virginia used to be one state. But if you're Joe Manchin and you're looking at three races that look like they're flipping from Democrat to Republican, the Virginia House of Delegates look like it's going to flip from Democrat to Republican, what does it tell you as a West Virginian to be careful of? The Biden agenda. The whole woke progressive movement that captured the Democrats.

So, this really puts Joe Manchin in a more enhanced position to say no to the Biden agenda. We'll see what he does. That is if I were in the White House, that is a huge policy blowbacks as a result of this election now in Virginia.

Don't forget New Jersey. Move your eyes up I-95 to New Jersey. That's a 50/50 race.

HANNITY: I'm looking at 39 percent of the vote in, the Republican up by a full point. I don't think most people expected that at 40 percent of the vote. What are the long-term ramifications, Sara Sanders for the Democratic Party.

SANDERS: I think it shows just a complete rejection as Ari just stated of the Democrat's agenda. I think one of the big lessons that you can take away from tonight is the number of parents that were standing up and pushing back against the left's agenda. In particular, how their kids are being educated, how the left wants to indoctrinate them and teach them that America is a racist and evil country and parents across the country, especially in Virginia as we're seeing tonight are pushing back on that lie and say we're not going to let that happen and making sure that we're electing people that are going to stand up and remind people that America is the greatest country on the face of the planet.

We need more leaders like Glenn Youngkin that understand it and who are willing to do everything to defend it.

HANNITY: Unbelievable night so far. Thank you all for joining us. Sarah, thank you. Ari Fleischer thank you've. Bill Hemmer has been phenomena. All of our reporters, Sara, everybody, what a night.

Anyway, unfortunately that's all the time we have left. We'll have full complete analysis tomorrow night and a lot to go over. A lot of angles we'll be covering.

Stay with the FOX News Channel for continuing election coverage. The time we have left. We'll have full complete analysis tomorrow night and a lot to go over. A lot of angles we'll be covering.

Stay with the FOX News Channel for continuing election coverage. Thank you for being with us. Laura Ingraham is up next. See you back here tomorrow night.

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