Polls: Kerry Leads in Pa.; Florida Deadlocked
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Democrat John Kerry (search) has a 10-point lead over President Bush (search) in Pennsylvania, a poll released Friday said, and a slight lead in Oregon.
Two new Florida polls found the race deadlocked in a three-way race, suggesting that independent Ralph Nader again could play a pivotal role in the essential swing state of 2000. Bush won the disputed Florida election by a margin of a few hundred votes, and Democrats blamed Nader, who had more than 97,000 votes, for tipping the balance in the state and awarding Bush the presidency.
In Pennsylvania, a key swing state won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, Kerry was up over Bush by 48 percent to 38 percent, while Nader was at 5 percent, in a state poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In Oregon, Kerry led Bush 50 percent to 42 percent, while Nader had 4 percent, according to a poll by the American Research Group. Gore narrowly won Oregon in 2000.
In Florida, a Mason-Dixon poll found Bush at 48 percent, Kerry at 46 percent and Nader at 2 percent. The race was equally close in a Los Angeles Times poll, with Bush at 45 percent, Kerry at 44 percent and 2 percent for Nader.
In other competitive states, Kerry and Bush were tied in ARG polls in New Hampshire and Ohio. Bush won both states in 2000.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In New Hampshire, Kerry had 47 percent, Bush 45 percent and Nader 3 percent. In Ohio, Kerry and Bush also were deadlocked in a three-way race.
Most of the polls had margins of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Some other details on the poll methods:
—The ARG Oregon poll of 600 likely voters was taken July 19-22, and the ARG New Hampshire poll of 600 likely voters was taken July 19-21. The ARG Ohio poll of 600 likely voters was taken July 20-22.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}—The Mason-Dixon Florida poll of 625 likely voters was taken July 19-21.
—The LA Times Florida poll of 401 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, and the poll of 499 likely voters in Pennsylvania has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Both were taken between July 17-21.