QB Stock Market: Ranking all 32 starters before Week 1 of 2024 season

Let's rank the starting quarterbacks.

It's simple, isn't it? It's just 32 names, from first to worst. 

You start with Patrick Mahomes and you finish with Gardner Minshew. 

But … I've already made things complicated. Because you might not agree that Minshew is the worst starting quarterback. Heck, you might not agree that Mahomes is the best quarterback. (You'd be wrong. But you're entitled to be wrong.)

Here is the philosophy behind my rankings, which I'll be doing weekly this season.

I don't believe in evaluating a quarterback in a vacuum. I don't want to imagine what Brock Purdy would look like in the New England Patriots offense — or what Justin Herbert would look like in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. I'm most concerned with how the quarterback is playing in his current situation, which — by the way — was set up around him with tremendous intention. (The coaches, general managers and scouts build their teams with their quarterbacks in mind, after all.) This process is already complicated. Let's not confuse things further.

That doesn't mean context is irrelevant for quarterback evaluation. But we shouldn't let context blind us from what's obvious. Looking at the end of last year, Purdy was playing like one of the league's best quarterbacks — and Herbert wasn't. And it's easy to imagine things will continue upward for Purdy. For Herbert, it might continue to trend downward. 

Every week, you'll see plenty of movement, based upon weekly swings of momentum for each quarterback and his team. No one is safe. No one is buried. 

It's all about, what have you done for me lately?

With that in mind, it's time to dive in. Here is the first quarterback ranking of the season, mixing in what they did at the end of the season with what I think they'll do to start this year.

Let the debate begin.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Overrated, huh? That's what some players said about Allen in a poll for ESPN. Those players are living in fantasy land. 

Allen knows how to play quarterback in the modern era. His interceptions often come on deep balls — and also often on third downs. He knows when to push the ball downfield in a way that minimizes damage. Yes, he's a risk-taker with his legs and his arms. But his offensive coordinator Joe Brady called him "a human eraser" for mistakes. Whether it's Allen or a teammate at fault, the quarterback will respond by doing something remarkable that compensates for errors. He had 29 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns last year.

His only weakness is Patrick Mahomes exists. Which is why Allen sits at No. 2 on this list.

3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Rodgers is old. He's cranky. He's stuck in his (deeply problematic) ways. But dammit, he's good at football.

Rodgers' injury could derail his career. It certainly looked like he was declining in 2022 before the Packers traded him. And the Jets are an inauspicious organization for someone like Rodgers to do the whole Phoenix routine. It's easy to lose faith.

But then you see Rodgers in practice with lasers to Garrett Wilson. You see Breece Hall. You see Tyron Smith and Olu Fashanu and the rest of this new-look offensive line. And you find that faith in Rodgers' arm again. He's a generational talent, surrounded by a stacked roster. You think: Rodgers can really be Rodgers again.

I'm excited to see what he can do.

6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

He's accomplished more in his first two seasons than most quarterbacks accomplish in their careers. He has a Super Bowl appearance and a 4-2 record in the playoffs. I get that the Shanahan system has done wonders for quarterbacks. But in Purdy's first season as a full-time starter, he eclipsed all of Jimmy Garoppolo's career bests, throwing for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while leading the NFL in passer rating and QBR. 

Purdy is a young and rapidly ascending quarterback with several things working for him. He has experience winning in the postseason, he has a system that works for him, and he has a strong supporting cast. I won't hold those things against him. Tom Brady might not have succeeded if Bill Belichick hadn't drafted him. Purdy is a 49er, and the 49ers are going to make Purdy into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
9. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Look, if we're going to show love for Prescott, you've got to show love for Tua. And in a similar line of argument, if you're going to show love for Burrow, you've got to show love for Tua.

All three quarterbacks occupy the same space: 1) prolific pocket passers in 2) passing-friendly systems with 3) a bounty of elite pass-catchers. Burrow has his Super Bowl appearance, while Prescott and Tua have struggled in the postseason. That's really the differentiator. And you can see that reflected in these rankings.

Tua doesn't get credit for being special, but he is. He's a smooth operator of Mike McDaniel's system. But it's one thing to be great in the early weeks of the regular season and it's another thing to be great in December and January. We're still waiting for Tua to develop a clutch gene.

11. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers traded all their best players for Jim Harbaugh. 

OK, not actually. But it felt that way.

Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett all are gone. Harbaugh is going to emphasize a strong run game, but he doesn't really have a good interior offensive line or a strong group of running backs. Yes, they have damn-good tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. That's basically the only good news for Herbert, who looked zapped of his superpowers last season. And I'm not sure this is the year where things get better. At least not right away. The Chargers looked trapped between identities. They don't yet have the personnel to deliver on Harbaugh's philosophies. That will continue to weigh Herbert down this year.

13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
14. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

I can't wait for the Caleb Williams show to begin.

The hype is building, like house music gathering momentum for the drop. I'll be watching for that moment when, finally, Williams hits the field and he gets everyone's heads bobbing to the beat. 

This year won't be without its issues. Teams like the Bears don't just flip like the Texans did last year. I think the Chicago rebuild will take time. But we'll see this year that Williams is up to the task of rebuilding the Bears around him.

15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
16. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
17. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Murray feels almost like a journeyman at this point in his career. Yes, he has only played for the Cardinals, but there has been so much drama during his career. Think back to when Arizona drafted him. The Cardinals were one year removed from drafting Josh Rosen at No. 10 overall.

The Murray era has been statistically better than you probably think — but not quite as good for Arizona as you would have expected. Between the injuries, the weird contract structure (including homework?), the coaching turnover and so many other things, Murray remains under the microscope. 

It feels like Arizona is growing impatient with Murray. I'm not sure the Cardinals got Murray the pieces he needs to succeed, but Marvin Harrison Jr. will absolutely help. Fair or not, it's the type of season where Kyler has to recapture his 2020-21 form — or else.

18. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
19. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
20. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
22. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
23. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
24. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

The sample is so small with Levis and Richardson, who I have bunched together here in limbo.

Anyone who claims to have figured these guys out must be buddies with Nostradamus. I'm willing to bet Levis and Richard end up being the most volatile entities on this stock watch: Big wins with crazy ascents — followed by crushing defeats and rapid descents. They both have all the physical tools in the world to succeed in the NFL. It's just about developing what's between their ears.

25. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
27. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
28. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

It was tough enough for Young to have gone to the Carolina Panthers, who created one of the more adverse situations for a rookie QB in recent memory. But Stroud had to go ahead and make things worse, putting together one of the best rookie QB seasons in recent memory. 

Sorry, Bryce.

At this point, no one is talking about Young. No one is thinking about Young. Few really believe in Young anymore. Maybe that takes all the pressure off. 

It should help, too, that Young has a believer in Dave Canales. 

"Look at the phenomenal job that David Canales did last year with Baker [Mayfield] — just resurrecting Baker's career," Pete Carroll told me by phone a few weeks ago. "And he's going to do it again with this kid. … He's going to try to do it in Carolina."

30. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
31. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
32. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders

Henry McKenna is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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