2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Wild races building as Broncos, Commanders cling to berths

The Chiefs and Bills, and the Ravens and Steelers engaged in heavyweight battles on Sunday, and they all came out looking like Super Bowl contenders. The Lions and Eagles showed they belong in that conversation too.

Everybody else better be ready for a wild scramble down the stretch, because the final playoff spots in each conference are far from secure. The Broncos looked great on Sunday, but their hold on the seventh spot in the AFC is tenuous. And the standings are packed in the NFC South and especially in the NFC West.

So while the top teams jockey for position, there's a large group of teams that will be battling for their postseason lives over the next seven weeks.

Here is the NFL playoff picture through Week 11:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (9-1)

Maybe someone can stop them, but it certainly wasn't going to be the awful Jacksonville Jaguars. The Lions won one of the most lopsided games the NFL has seen in decades. It was a pretty impressive muscle flex. It was also their eighth win in a row. So who can stop them? Well, the Colts, Bears and Packers are up next, and the Lions are a few steps up in weight class for all of them. The next real test might come on Dec. 15 against the Buffalo Bills.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)

They reasserted their dominance in the NFC East on Thursday night by swatting back the upstart Washington Commanders and opening a two-game division lead. It wasn't easy and it was dicey for a while, but that's who the Eagles are. It sometimes takes them a while to get going. But they are so relentless with their Saquon Barkley-led ground attack that they wear down opponents and eventually break games open. That, and their strong defense, is what will really make them so dangerous in the playoffs.

Playoff probability: 97%

3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

They got a huge bye-week gift when Geno Smith rallied the Seattle Seahawks to a win over the San Francisco 49ers, because if he hadn't done that, the Cards and Niners would've been tied atop the NFC West. They can't rest easy, though, because their lead over all three of the other teams is only one game. They'll face the Seahawks twice in the next three weeks, so at least they can take care of them by themselves.

Playoff probability: 64%

3. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)

They still lead the NFC South by 1 ½ games, but it sure looks like a division ripe for the taking after their no-show against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. They weren't just blown out by the offensively challenged Broncos, they allowed Denver to almost double their yardage total and they committed three turnovers. That's two straight losses now as they try to regroup during their bye week. When they come back, the Las Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings are up first.

Playoff probability: 73%

5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

They keep finding a way to win, even though they don't look very good doing it. This time it was their run game that struggled, though they still managed to win their third game in a row. Quarterback Sam Darnold got out of his funk with a good performance against the Tennessee Titans, but this Vikings team sure does seem to be teetering. They'll need a better effort in Chicago next Sunday. And really, there are no pushovers on their schedule the rest of the way, so whatever magic they've got going might not last for long.

Playoff probability: 95%

6. Green Bay Packers (7-3)

A win is a win, but they know it should never have come down to the final minutes against the Bears. Somehow, the Packers defense allowed Chicago to have its best offensive day since early October, which doesn't bode well for Green Bay the rest of the way. They've won five of their last six, but look what's coming next on the schedule: The 49ers, Dolphins and a trip to Detroit. They have to find a way to keep winning, but there are a bunch of good teams right on their heels.

Playoff probability: 79%

7. Washington Commanders (7-4)           

They have hit an inevitable wall the past two weeks with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. It was a reminder that while they are a lot better than expected, they have not arrived as a true contender yet. They have a good chance to get back on track with home games against the Cowboys and Titans before the bye week. But they've got work to do if they want to actually make some postseason noise.

Playoff probability: 78%

On the outside looking in: 

It's taken all season, but the Los Angeles Rams (5-5) finally got their offense and QB Matt Stafford going in New England. But can they keep it going at home vs. the Eagles next week? … Geno Smith's late-game heroics gave the Seattle Seahawks (5-5) the biggest win of their season and kept them alive in the NFC West. They get the division-leading Cardinals twice in the next three weeks. … The flip side of that is an awful home loss to the Seahawks for the San Francisco 49ers (5-5), who seemed to have all the momentum. Now they head to Green Bay and Buffalo coming off a loss. … The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) stayed close in their division race during their bye week thanks to the Falcons' loss. The Giants, Panthers and Raiders are up next for them, so they have a chance to make a run. … The Chicago Bears (4-6) gave a heck of an effort in a one-point loss to the Packers and even showed signs of life on offense. But they're three games back with seven to go, which might be a little too much. 

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

The 1972 Miami Dolphins are celebrating because the Chiefs' run at an undefeated season ended in Buffalo on Sunday. There's no real shame in losing in Buffalo, and the Chiefs are still the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But they've got to be at least a little concerned about their offense, which has averaged just 279.5 yards over the past two games. Patrick Mahomes also threw two more interceptions, so his 11 through 10 games has to be a little alarming, too.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

They beat their white whale, knocking off the Chiefs who have tortured them so much over the last few seasons. Yes, it won't really matter until they knock them out in the playoffs, but their 30-21 win in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Sunday was a start. The Bills are on a tear with six straight wins and five straight games where they scored 30 points or more. So the bye week doesn't come at a great time for them. Also, the 49ers, Rams and Lions are waiting for them when they're back from their break.

Playoff probability: 99%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

They are now the team to beat in the AFC North after an 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens. And the win couldn't have been bigger for them. Not only did it open up a two-game lead in the division, but it made it clear to everyone that they have a championship-caliber defense. They held the Ravens to their lowest yardage total of the year and forced three turnovers. Their offense still has issues, but the formula is working. They've won five straight and are 4-0 since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback. And now they get to beat up on the Browns in two of their next three games.

Playoff probability: 98%

4. Houston Texans (6-4)

They head into their Monday night game in Dallas with just a 1 ½-game lead in the AFC South over the pesky Indianapolis Colts. They've also lost two straight games and three of their last four, so they're not exactly working with a lot of momentum. The good news for them is the Cowboys are a mess with quarterback Dak Prescott out for the season. And the Cowboys also haven't won yet at home. This is a huge opportunity for the Texans — one they really can't afford to waste.

Playoff probability: 95%

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

They have won so much this season with defense that it’s almost easy to forget how dangerous their offense can be. But they showed it against the Bengals on Sunday night by winning a shootout thanks to a strong game by quarterback Justin Herbert and a potent rushing attack. Herbert is still one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and can win a lot of games on his own. He doesn’t have to anymore, which is why the Chargers could end up being a very dangerous team when the playoffs begin.

Playoff probability: 88%

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

They had rolled their way back into contention after an 0-2 start, and they are still good enough to be a threat to anyone in the AFC. But they are now in a hole in the division race after their 18-16 loss in Pittsburgh. The good news is they'll see the Steelers again in a month. The other good news is they're still in great shape in the wild-card race. And no one is going to want to face them in the playoffs. But if they can't catch the Steelers, their playoff run will be on the road.

Playoff probability: 95%

7. Denver Broncos (6-5)

Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense finally came to life in a rout of the Atlanta Falcons. Nix was brilliant, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns, and with no interceptions he's still thrown just two in his last nine games. The Denver defense was stellar as usual too, making this the first time that the Broncos really resembled a complete team and true contender. Maybe more evidence is needed, but they did snap a two-game losing streak and have games against the Raiders and Browns coming up before their bye.

Playoff probability: 66%

On the outside looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (5-6) are hanging on after a wild, fourth-quarter comeback against the Jets. If QB Anthony Richardson keeps playing like he did on Sunday, they might actually have a shot. … Don't look now, but two straight wins have the Miami Dolphins (4-6) clinging to the race, and their offense finally kicked into gear against the Raiders on Sunday. … That’s two heart-breaking, last-minute losses in a row for the  Cincinnati Bengals (4-7). The one to the Chargers on Sunday night probably ends their playoff hopes.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.