The U.S. men’s national team isn’t quite considered elite on the world soccer stage.
That said, the Americans aren’t far off, sitting 11th in FIFA’s latest world rankings. Compare that with Bolivia — ranked 84th — and Team USA looks pretty good. So it’s no surprise that the USMNT is a huge favorite vs. Bolivia on the Copa América betting board.
The U.S. is -550 in its Group C opener Sunday on FOX, meaning it would take a $550 bet to profit $100, for a $650 total payout.
Unfortunately, that’s not attractive to bettors at the moment.
"Action has been pretty slow to start, mainly because of the massive price on USA," BetMGM trading manager and soccer aficionado Seamus Magee said Friday.
But betting activity is sure to pick up between now and Sunday’s 6 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Magee provides his behind-the-counter insights on Team USA’s first match and the Americans’ chances of making a run in the Copa América odds market.
Hop On Props
In BetMGM’s three-way market — USA to win, Bolivia to win or the match to finish tied after 90 minutes plus injury time — the moneyline odds haven’t moved an inch so far. The USA opened and remains -550, while Bolivia is a hefty +1450 underdog, and Draw is +600.
If you popped a hundred bucks on the Bolivians, and they pulled off a massive upset, then you’d pocket $1,450 in profit, for a $1,550 total payout. A $100 bet on Draw would profit $600, for a $700 total payout.
But as those odds reflect, the far more likely outcome is an easy American victory. As such, Magee expects his customers to seek out more valuable markets — mainly prop bets — in which to back the USMNT.
"I anticipate that we’ll see a lot of bets on USA -1.5 goals or -2.5 goals," Magee said.
For example, Team USA -1.5 goals is priced at -175, meaning a $175 bet would profit $100 if the American side wins by two or more goals. That’s much more attractive than the -500 moneyline odds on Team USA simply winning the match, regardless of goal differential.
If you foresee a USMNT runaway, then taking the Americans -2.5 at +145 is better still. A $100 wager would profit $145, for a $245 total payout, if the USMNT wins by three or more goals. But keep in mind, this is an American side that lately hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard in major international play. More on that later.
More Props To Pop
Speaking of scoring, perhaps a better way to find value in backing the USA is wagering on which players find the back of the net.
"I think we’re going to see a lot of goalscorer bets coming in on this match," Magee said.
Team USA’s Haji Wright and Folarin Balogun are the +320 co-favorites to score the match’s first goal. So a $100 bet on Wright to score first would potentially land a nice $320 profit, for a $420 payout. If you’re more of a Christian Pulisic fan, he’s +360, meaning a $100 bet would profit $360 if he scores the match’s first goal.
You could also bet on the total of 2.5 goals. There’s a bit of a premium on the Over, at -165, while the Under is +115. So it would take a $165 bet on the Over to win $100 ($265 total payout), provided the match ends with at least three goals, while a $100 bet on the Under would win $115 ($215 total payout).
"There’s very little action on the total. But we’ll see that ramp up on game day, once lineups are announced," Magee said.
Looking Ahead
Even though the 2024 Copa América takes place entirely on American soil, the U.S. men’s national team is not among the favorites to win the event. That space is reserved for traditional soccer powers.
Argentina is the -175 favorite to win the tournament. That’s to be expected, as Lionel Messi & Co. are still basking in their 2022 World Cup victory. Brazil at +225 is the second choice to win Copa América, followed by Uruguay at +500 and Colombia at +900.
At +1200, Team USA weighs in as the fifth choice in odds to win. A $100 bet would profit $1,200 if the Americans lift the trophy. But action has been light on the home team so far.
"Frankly, at the moment, it’s not as much as you’d think," Magee said. "The USA is a winner for us on the futures, with Brazil and Argentina as our only losers. However, as the tournament [gets going] and action picks up, I think we’ll start to see steady USA futures action."
And as with game and player markets, there are other ways to bet USA futures. You don’t have to take the Americans to win it all, when there are more realistic wagers to be had.
"I think the goal for this team should be to make the semifinals. I don’t think they have a team that could take down Brazil or Argentina," Magee said. "But there are some good tests to see how we stack up against good teams, like Uruguay in the Group C stage."
Team USA is +188 to make it to the Final Four. That’s sixth on BetMGM’s Copa América oddsboard, just behind fourth-choice Mexico (+150) and fifth-choice Colombia (+175).
The U.S. is fully expected to advance from Group C into the quarterfinals. A little better execution on both ends of the field could lead to a semifinal run for the USMNT.
"I’m a little worried about the defense seeming thin. They shipped five goals to Colombia (in a 5-1 loss) recently, and needed 11 saves from Matt Turner to draw with Brazil 1-1," Magee said, before getting to the Americans’ offense. "They need to score goals more consistently. They didn’t score more than one goal in any game in the last World Cup.
"Hopefully, they get a decent draw out of the group stage and can make a run to the semis."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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