College football Week 12 preview: Colorado rising, Ashton Jeanty's historic year, more

The second set of College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night and the biggest story to come out of the reveal wasn't No. 1-ranked Oregon, No. 2-ranked Ohio State, or even No. 3-ranked Texas.

The biggest storylines surrounded the following two programs: Indiana and Colorado.

The Hoosiers are the gift that keeps on giving this season - sitting at 10-0 for the first time in program history and occupants of the No. 5 ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings. Curt Cignetti's group has a bye this weekend before traveling to Columbus for a massive Big Ten showdown with the Buckeyes on Nov. 23 on FOX.

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes, coming off a disappointing 4-8 season last year, are 7-2 this season and fresh off an impressive road win at Texas Tech. Deion Sanders' team is 5-1 in Big 12 play, trailing only undefeated BYU in the conference standings. The Buffs, whp control their own destiny as it relates to a path to the Big 12 Championship Game, get set to host Utah at 12 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX.

In addition to Colorado's Big 12 matchup against Utah on Saturday, Nebraska travels to Los Angeles to battle USC, while Tennessee heads to Athens, Georgia to battle the 12th-ranked Bulldogs in a game that will have massive CFP implications.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman and RJ Young are here to answer the biggest questions heading into Week 11:

Colorado sits at 7-2 heading into this weekend's matchup against Utah. Even if the Buffs were to finish the regular season 10-2, do they need to win the Big 12 Championship in order to make the 12-team College Football Playoff?

Laken Litman: Colorado has to win the Big 12 title in order to have the best chance of making the 12-team playoff. 

To back up for a second, whoever wins the conference, whether that's Colorado or BYU – the two most likely programs at this current point in time – that team will make the CFP. Where it gets tricky is what the committee decides to do with the loser. If it's BYU, would they keep out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up? If it's Colorado, would they keep out a 10-win Buffs program with three losses?

The problem for Deion Sanders & Co. is that if a three-loss team makes the CFP, it will most likely be from the SEC or the Big Ten due to strength of schedule. So, if Colorado does not win the Big 12, its playoff chances hinge on what happens around the country.

RJ Young: Absolutely. 

At least one 10-win Power 4 team isn't making the CFP, and the runner-up in the Big 12 Championship Game is on that list. But the glass is half full for CU.

The Buffaloes' road to the national championship game is clean, and that's saying quite a bit in a landscape shrouded in uncertainty for other teams who could cap their season with "just" 10 wins. They're favored in every game they have left in the regular season and every one of those teams has a losing record. 

The CFP format and criteria are clear: The four highest-ranked conference champions will not only earn selection to the playoff but be granted a first-round bye, and the Big 12 is one of those four Power 4 leagues the 12-team CFP was designed to accommodate.

For Deion Sanders' Colorado team, that makes the math simple: Win. Win against Utah on Saturday, and every game you play afterward, and it will culminate in a magical year for Colorado because they play in the Big 12. And all this is thanks to athletic director Rick George proving prescient in hiring Coach Prime and then following that bit of business with a shrewd move to join the Big 12 as the Pac-12 dissolved in front of him.

With Prime already mentioned as a favorite for a job that isn't even open yet — the Dallas Cowboys — nothing should shock us about what might happen to Colorado over the next two months and change — including winning the national title.

Michael Cohen: Yes, Colorado will almost certainly need to win the Big 12 Championship if it wants to reach the College Football Playoff. And the reason is exactly the one outlined by RJ in the first half of his response: With 24 of the top 25 teams in the latest edition of the CFP rankings set to enter Week 12 with two losses or fewer, there's going to be at least one 10-win program from the Power 4 conferences that finds itself on the outside of the bracket looking in when the 12-team field is officially revealed in early December. That's exactly the kind of recipe that most followers of the sport expect will favor the SEC and the Big Ten, two leagues that will remind everyone about strength of schedule until they're blue in the face. 

Unfortunately for the Big 12, such an argument wouldn't really apply. Houston and Kansas — neither of which are in contention to win the league title — are the conference's only schools whose respective strength of schedule through the first 11 weeks ranks among the top 30 teams nationally, according to Pro Football Focus. It's a far cry from the 10 Big Ten schools and the 11 SEC programs that, when combined, occupy more than 66% of the list. And in terms of remaining schedules from now through the end of November, only Kansas and Cincinnati have slates that rank among the top 20 in difficulty. In other words, the Buffaloes have no chance to reach the College Football Playoff if they absorb another defeat. The caliber of the league wouldn't be good enough to justify their inclusion as a potential three-loss team. 

Nebraska travels to Los Angeles to take on USC this weekend. After starting the season 5-1, the Cornhuskers have now lost three straight and are 5-4 overall, while the Trojans have lost four of their last five and sit at 4-5 overall. Which of these programs needs a win more on Saturday?

RJ: Flip a coin.

Matt Rhule hired Dana Holgorsen as an offensive consultant during NU's bye week and made him the interim offensive coordinator and play-caller by the following Monday. May we all earn promotions as quickly. The move feels desperate because it is desperately needed. Nebraska averages just 18 points per game and is threatening to miss the opportunity to earn bowl-eligibility for the second year in a row after getting off to a fast start with five wins.

A win against the Trojans at the Coliseum not only gets Nebraska to its first bowl game since 2016, but also firmly sets the Huskers apart from Big Ten newcomer USC, who is in the midst of its own personnel crisis. 

Lincoln Riley benched starter Miller Moss for Jayden Maiva, recognizing the USC offensive line isn't good enough to protect a quarterback who can't run for his life with lethal efficiency like Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray could. Heck, even Baker Mayfield had scoot-and-skedaddle survival instincts Moss doesn't. 

A win by the Trojans would not only get USC back to .500 but could also give Trojans fans some faith that this season is a blip. A loss would bring up even more questions about Lincoln Riley.

Either way, the winner is going to feel some relief, while the loser might just close practice to the media.

Michael: So thick is the desperation at both programs that it's almost impossible to choose. At USC, where Riley has lost 10 of his last 22 games, the move to bench Moss sends a clear message during what is snarkily known as "scapegoat season" around the country. The change indicates that Moss, who has thrown nine interceptions in his last seven outings, is a significant reason why the Trojans have sunk below .500 and are in serious danger of failing to qualify for a bowl game — at least according to Riley. That demoting Moss all but invites him to enter the transfer portal only seems to reinforce Riley's stance that inadequate quarterback play has held USC back on more than one occasion.

On the other hand, Matt Rhule doesn't have such a convenient excuse at his disposal. His starting quarterback, true freshman Dylan Raiola, was a five-star prospect whom the Cornhuskers flipped from Georgia in one of the biggest recruiting wins the program has ever seen. Raiola was supposed to be the player who bridged the gap between Nebraska's glory days in the 1990s and its lethargy in the 21st century. There's almost nothing Raiola can do to lose the job given what he represents to the fan base. 

Instead, Rhule had to demote offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield, bring in Holgorsen as an offensive consultant, and then promote Holgorsen to offensive coordinator and play caller almost immediately. That is as desperate as desperation can get during the second week of November for a team that began the year 5-1 overall. 

Laken: While there might be more pressure on USC, I'm going with Nebraska. This week, Rhule made a big change to his coaching staff when he announced that Holgorsen, who joined the Huskers staff last week as an offensive consultant, would be the new offensive coordinator. It was a surprising move, and in explaining his decision, Rhule said this is "not about next year," it's about "right now." 

The Huskers' offense has been flat for weeks and could use a jolt. Holgorsen is an offensive guru and now gets to work with Dylan Raiola. The young QB was one of the biggest story lines to start the season, but the buzz has subsided. Raiola has thrown for 1,921 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions through nine games. Nine of those TDs, however, came in his first five games, and he's only had one in the last four. Raiola suffered a back injury in Nebraska's last game vs. UCLA and his status for this week's game against USC is unknown. Once he's healthy, can Holgorsen work some magic? If he can, Nebraska might just go to its first bowl game since 2016.

Tennessee gets set to take on Georgia this weekend in an SEC showdown with massive CFP implications. Despite only being one game apart in the conference standings, it seems like these are two programs going in opposite directions right now. Why do you believe Georgia – ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll – is struggling right now?

Michael: There's little question that quarterback Carson Beck, who some people believed could develop into the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, has struggled this season. He's already thrown twice as many interceptions through Georgia's first nine games (12) as he did across the entirety of last year (six) as a first-time starter. His completion percentage has dropped by seven points from 72.4% in 2023 to 65.4% in 2024. His NFL passer rating has plummeted from 114.8 to 90.7, which is tied for 65th nationally among players with at least 200 dropbacks this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He's also been under pressure on 22.6% of dropbacks in 2024 compared to 19% in 2023. 

It's also worth noting, however, that Georgia's rushing attack has slipped from 21st nationally in 2023 (191.2 yards per game) to 104th nationally in 2024 (124.1 yards per game). The Bulldogs are tied for 106th in rushing plays longer than 20 yards with only seven. They are tied for 55th in rushing touchdowns with just 16 as a team. They rank 83rd in yards per carry with a modest average of just 4.2, more than a full yard shorter than last season's mark. 

Taken together, what these trends point to is a deficiency along Georgia's offensive line — at least to some degree — in addition to the subpar play from Beck and the team's stable of running backs. It's possible the trenches are just as big of a problem for head coach Kirby Smart and his staff to sort out. 

Laken: Georgia's offense does not look playoff ready. Beck struggled against Ole Miss' pass rush and was sacked five times in last week's 28-10 loss. The running game couldn't get going, racking up a total of 60 yards on the ground. Top RB Trevor Etienne, who has been dealing with an injury this season, managed just 24 yards on six carries. Georgia's rushing offense is now one of the worst in the country, averaging just 124.11 ypg. That's a problem.

As for Beck, it's clear he misses his favorite targets from last year, Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, both of whom are playing in the NFL. Beck was an early-season Heisman Trophy contender, but not anymore. He's been underwhelming, especially in his toughest games this year vs. Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss. It's unfortunate that two of Georgia's starting offensive linemen are out with injuries, but that doesn't excuse Beck's 12 interceptions this season, the most of all SEC quarterbacks.

RJ: Quarterback play.

Carson Beck in Year 2 is not Carson Beck in Year 1. He's already thrown twice as many interceptions this year as he did all of last year. His completion percentage is down seven points from last year, and his passer rating has plummeted by 27 points. He's just not that good. And it's led to UGA losing two regular-season games for the first time since 2018. Put another way, Smart has lost just 18 games as head coach at UGA, three of them have had Beck as his starting quarterback, and Beck has started just 23 games. 

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 1,734 yards and 23 touchdowns nine games into the season. Finish this sentence: Jeanty is the most impressive running back in college football since _____?

Laken: I'm going with Derrick Henry, the last running back to win the Heisman Trophy in 2015. Henry finished that season with 2,219 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns in 15 games, including the national championship. Alabama beat Clemson 45-40 to win the title that year.

Jeanty could certainly surpass those stats, especially if Boise State wins the Mountain West and plays a playoff game or two. Jeanty is 5-foot-9, 215 lbs., while Henry is 6-2, 247. That's quite the size discrepancy, but the RBs are similar in that they're tough to bring down and are both electrifying with their power and speed.

RJ: 2022 Quinshon Judkins, who rushed for 1,567 yards and 16 TDs on 274 carries — as a true freshman. Only Herschel Walker rushed for more yards as a true freshman tailback in the SEC (1,616), and Walker had an identical number of carries (274). 

Walker finished third in the Heisman voting that year. Judkins didn't even get enough votes to join the top 10, despite out-producing Michigan running back Blake Corum, who finished eighth. Yes, Jeanty's numbers are better than Judkins on fewer carries. But there's a difference in how difficult it is to play in the SEC versus leagues like the Mountain West: It just means more.

Michael: What Jeanty and Colorado cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter have done this season is transform the Heisman Trophy conversation from a discourse that is traditionally centered on quarterbacks to one that now includes skill players at other positions. It's been nothing but great for college football in a year when the quarterback class lacks the same starpower as the 2023 season, when Jayden Daniels (LSU), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), Jordan Travis (Florida State) and Jalen Milroe (Alabama) all finished among the top six in the Heisman voting. 

Comparing Jeanty's production in 2024 to some of the best running back seasons in recent memory is difficult given the unevenness in competition between the Mountain West and the traditional power conferences. So, rather than juxtaposing apples with oranges, let's highlight two other seasons in which spectacular running back play came to dominate the national conversation: 

— The first was the 2019 campaign when four running backs finished among the top 10 in the Heisman voting, led by fifth-place finisher Jonathan Taylor (2,003 yards and 21 TDs) from Wisconsin. He was one of three backs from power conferences to eclipse 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns that season, along with Chuba Hubbard from Oklahoma State (2,094 yards and 21 TDs) and J.K. Dobbins from Ohio State (2,003 yards and 21 TDs). 

— The second was the 2007 campaign when two tailbacks finished among the top eight in the Heisman voting, led by second-place finisher Darren McFadden (1,830 yards and 16 TDs) from Arkansas. But McFadden only ranked fourth nationally in rushing yards thanks to a trio of incredible seasons from UCF's Kevin Smith (2,567 yards and 29 TDs), who finished eighth in the Heisman Trophy race; Tulane's Matt Forte (2,127 yards and 23 TDs) and Rutgers' Ray Rice (2,012 yards and 24 TDs).

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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