Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's college football Week 12 study guide

This past Saturday was another electric day in college football. 

Ole Miss took down No. 2 Georgia in what was their highest ranked home win ever, No. 4 Miami fell to an unranked Georgia Tech team for the second straight year, No. 8 Indiana narrowly escaped Bloomington with a five-point win against unranked Michigan, undefeated BYU squeaked out a one-point win against in-state rival Utah, Alabama crushed LSU in a 42-13 showing, and No. 17 Iowa State lost 45-36 to a 2-6 Kansas team. 

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what's notable for the upcoming week.     

I've decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. 

This week, ten ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with two ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We'll get into those shortly. Eight of the top 10 teams in the AP poll play this weekend, and 21 of the top 25 have action as well. 

Let's dive into my thoughts and games to watch for in Week 12.

Cream of the crop

Twelve weeks into the season, we're starting to see which teams are truly dominant when looking at advanced metrics. Only four teams in FBS rank in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency— Ohio State (4th/7th), Alabama (6th/8th), Ole Miss (8th/6th) and Penn State (10th/10th). All four of them have a strength of record in the top 12, and a strength of schedule that ranks in the top 30. It'll be interesting to see where they finish the season in regards to CFP rankings, as Ohio State is the only team of the bunch with an opponent currently ranked in either the AP poll or CFP rankings left on their schedule (Buckeyes will take on Indiana in two weeks). The Buckeyes other two games this season come against 4-5 Northwestern and 5-5 Michigan, while the Nittany Lions' last three opponents are 1-8 Purdue, 4-5 Maryland, and 6-4 Minnesota. The Tide takes on an FCS opponent in Mercer this week and has 5-5 Oklahoma and 3-6 Auburn to close their season. And finally, the Rebels close their regular season campaign with 4-5 Florida and 2-8 Mississippi State.          

CFP rankings

With the second edition of the rankings set to be released, I really wonder which team in the current CFP top 12 will not be in the final edition of the rankings. I can totally see this coming down to potentially 11-1 Indiana (should they lose in Columbus) as a fourth Big Ten team, fighting a fifth SEC team at 10-2 for one of the final spots. The SEC and Big Ten will both be HUGE USC fans when they host Notre Dame in final game of season, as the Irish are currently 8-1 and are independents. Although if Louisville stays ranked, I’d think Notre Dame gets in because of their wins over Texas A&M and the Cardinals.

So speaking conservatively, we got the ACC Champ, the Big 12 Champ, a Group of 5 champ, and then nine spots for Notre Dame, the Big Ten and the SEC. Personally, I think it's going to be hard for the ACC or Big 12 to each get two teams. The next few weeks are going to be very interesting. 

Houston trying to go bowling

Houston has won three of their last four games after being shut out in consecutive games against conference foes Cincinnati and Iowa State. They were on bye this week and took down No. 17 Kansas State as 13-point underdogs in the week before. If the Cougars can win two of their final three games, they will be bowl eligible in year one under Willie Fritz. Talk about a flip of the script since being outscored 54-0 against the Bearcats and Cyclones. In the BCS/CFP Era, only four teams have reached a bowl game after being shut out twice during the course of the season— 1998 Ole Miss, 2009 Minnesota, 2009 Wyoming (which was actually shut out three times), and of course 2023 Iowa, which was shut out for a third time in the bowl game loss to Tennessee. 

Looking ahead to Hoosiers 

What if I told you that in 2024, Indiana has beaten the reigning national champions and the 2023 runner-ups? Well, they have. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time in program history and beat Michigan and Washington by a combined score of 51 to 32. Curt Cignetti's squad is first in all of FBS in scoring differential (+301), second in scoring (43.9 points per game), seventh in scoring defense (13.8 points per game allowed), and one of four undefeated teams left. They're on bye this week, and have a huge matchup with the Buckeyes next week. Folks, get your popcorn ready. 

So many ranked matchups

Since the start of October, there have been 18 ranked matchups (including this week). Twelve of the 18 have been conference games for the SEC, four were Big Ten games, one was in the ACC, and there was also independent Notre Dame taking on Navy (a member of the AAC). I'm really curious as to how the committee will factor this into the rankings when looking at teams from the SEC and Big Ten. Not all wins are created equal, and Strength of Record is a very good metric for analyzing a team's true valor. Should an undefeated Army team get more credit than a two-loss Georgia team that has wins over Alabama and Texas? Should a one-loss Boise State team be ranked higher than a two-loss A&M squad? These are the difficult questions the committee will have to answer each week.

Huskers in a pickle

Nebraska has lost eight straight games when they have five wins entering the game. They can't get bowl eligible when they have a chance! The Huskers are nine-point underdogs this week in Los Angeles against the Trojans, and host Wisconsin before going to Iowa to end the season. After a 5-1 start, are they really going to finish the year at 5-7 and miss a bowl game because of six straight losses to finish their campaign?! As crazy as that sounds, it's definitely in play. Hopefully Matt Rhule can right the ship before it's too late and took steps to address it this week when he brought in Dana Holgorsen to help with the offense.

Mountain West madness

There are a lot of implications for the Mountain West this weekend. We’re all assuming Boise State is going to rematch with UNLV in the conference title game, but right now Colorado State is 4-0 in Mountain West play and controls its own destiny to get to the game themselves. The Rams have 2-7 Wyoming this Friday, followed by 5-5 Fresno State and 2-7 Utah State in the weeks after. That could hurt the perception of Boise if they have to face the Rams and not the Rebels. 

On that note, let's not overlook the Broncos game at San Jose State this week. Spencer Danielson's squad wasn’t super impressive last week and the Spartans nearly won at Washington State earlier this year (Wazzu is currently 8-1 and ranked 19th in the AP poll). Can Coach Ken Niumatalolo pull off a big upset? He's got six wins in his career vs ranked opponents, all coming with Navy. Let's see if he can get his first with the Spartans.  

Longhorns take on Razorbacks

The first game between these two programs came all the way back in 1894. Texas leads the all-time series against Arkansas 56-23, but has lost the last two matchups. This will be the first time the two meet since 2021, and it'll be the sixth meeting since 2000. Texas is 2-3 against them in that span, and is currently a 14-point favorite this week. Fun fact here— there was a great book written on the 1969 game in Fayetteville— Horns, Hogs and Nixon Coming— which was a made-for-TV game between the top-ranked Longhorns and the second-ranked Razorbacks. Texas was down 14-0 heading into the fourth quarter, and scored 15 points in the final period to get the one-point win. The national title was "awarded" in the locker room after the game, and many considered this to be one of the greatest games of the century.

Cardiac Cougars

For the entirety of the season, it was the Cardiac Canes— as my alma mater was earning one-score win after one-score win under Mario Cristobal. After all the escapes, Miami lost to Georgia Tech, ending their magical run. But now, it's time for the Cardiac Cougars. BYU is 9-0 with five of those wins coming by seven points or less, and three of them coming by three or less. Last week it took several 50-50 calls to go their way and a game-winning field goal as time expired to get a one-point victory over 4-4 Utah. They just need two wins in their final three games to guarantee themselves a spot in the Big 12 title game. They take on 3-6 Kansas this week and are just favored by three points at home. Since 1978, there have been 66 instances of a team 9-0 or better facing a team with a losing record at home. Every single one of those was a double-digit favorite, until this week. Oddsmakers know what's up with the Cougars. 

Colorado's path to the Big 12 title game

Imagine telling someone when Baylor was up seven with five seconds left and Colorado already had two losses that six weeks later they’d still have two losses and the Buffs may be the favorite to win the Big 12. Deion Sanders' squad is currently second in the conference standings with a 5-1 record in Big 12 play and a 7-2 overall record, trailing only undefeated BYU. Their last three opponents (Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma State) have a combined 10-18 record, giving them a clear path to the conference title. Should they unexpectedly drop a game, then it'll be a complicated scenario as Arizona State, Iowa State, and Kansas State are each 4-2 in conference play and 7-2 overall. Travis Hunter is now the favorite to win the Heisman at +130, and it'll be interesting to see if the Buffs winning the Big 12 championship will matter in order for him to win it.

Tough times for Tigers

As Auburn's head coach, Hugh Freeze is 4-10 in SEC play, 5–12 vs Power conference opponents and 0-12 vs teams that finished with (or in the case of 2024) have a winning record. The Tigers should beat UL Monroe this week but will have to also beat Texas A&M and Alabama to go bowling. Auburn has lost their last four Bowl game appearances, with their last such win coming in 2018.  

Clinching scenarios in the American

There's a big AAC elimination game for Navy this Saturday, as they'll host Tulane. If the Green Wave win, they'll clinch a spot in the title game alongside Army, which would also be assured of a spot in the conference championship as they have no losses with two AAC games left. In that scenario, everyone other than Tulane and Army would have two conference losses. If Navy wins, then we'll have to wait and see how things play out. The Midshipmen also have a huge matchup in their last regular season game, facing the undefeated Black Knights.

How 'bout them Devils?

I've mentioned this in past weeks, but it just can't be said enough as to how great of a story the Sun Devils have been. After being picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll, Kenny Dillingham has them with a 4-2 conference record and at 7-2 overall, which currently puts them in third behind BYU and Colorado. While it's going to take a lot to get into the Big 12 title game, it's still possible. They'll need to win at least one of their next two games against Kansas State and BYU, along with needing some losses from other teams. Keep an eye out for Cam Skattebo's status. He missed last week with an injury and it's still unclear if he'll be playing this week against the Wildcats. His 1,405 scrimmage yards are the fifth-most of any player in FBS, along with 13 total touchdowns to his name.

Showdown in Athens

What is the biggest issue with the Bulldogs? Is it Carson Beck? Is it the offensive line? Is it a lack of receiver talent? Is the secondary somewhat suspect? They had a brutal day last week, but then when you go back and see what the defense did in Austin a few weeks ago— it just becomes frustrating to see this sort of play from a team we’ve expected near perfection from. Georgia hasn’t lost consecutive regular season games since 2016— Kirby Smart’s first year as head coach. That was 94 games ago. They have a crucial game against Tennessee this week, who is currently sitting at the top of the SEC with a 5-1 record in conference play and at 8-1 overall. The Dogs are currently 9.5-point favorites at home, and have to win to keep their CFP hopes alive. Volunteer quarterback Nico Iamaleava also left last week's game against Mississippi State with an injury, and his status for Saturday is in question. This should be the game of the week.

Camp Randall troubles

Wisconsin hosts top-ranked Oregon this week in what could be an ugly game for Luke Fickell's squad. The Badgers have faced two current top ten teams at home this season and been outscored 70-23, losing 42-10 to Alabama and 28-13 to Penn State. I think Saturday might be much of the same. 

Gamecocks so close

Talk about a "what if" season for Shane Beamer's squad. South Carolina is currently 6-3 but blew a big lead at home against LSU, and then nearly pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa, losing 27-25 to the Tide. They could easily be 8-1 on the season, with their only loss coming against Ole Miss in a 27-3 beat-down. The Gamecocks are currently ranked 23rd in the AP poll, and have won three straight games— headlined by a dominant 44-20 win against then No. 10 A&M. 

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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