2024 NFL Draft: Do the Bills need to trade up for a WR1?

The common wisdom is to avoid drafting for need.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane missed the memo.

It feels like a foregone conclusion that Buffalo will take a wide receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft. Likely on Day 1. And definitely no later than Day 2. Not only do the Bills desperately need an outside receiver, but this year's draft offers a surplus of outside receivers. Their need matches the draft. If there was a year when Beane could afford to leave the need for draft day, this is the one.

That said, Beane isn't a stranger to doing this in years past. And when he has a major need, he tends to trade up to get the guy he covets most. Last year, he traded up to snag tight end Dalton Kincaid, who wasn't even filling a major need but was simply a prospect the organization loved. But in terms of targeting their need, the Bills traded up in Round 1 to nab quarterback Josh Allen. They traded up to get linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. And they moved up to snag cornerback Kaiir Elam. Every one of those first-rounders filled a glaring need. 

History is telling us that Beane is going to trade up for a receiver, right? 

So what is Beane, who has 10 picks in this year's draft starting with No. 28 overall, telling us?

"I can't really tell you if we're going to go up, go back or draft at 28," Beane said last week during a pre-draft press conference.

He added: "Right or wrong, I probably deserve criticism for trading up sometimes. I get that. But if there's a guy I like and I'm confident, I want to go to bed Thursday night [feeling] that I got him."

After trading receiver Stefon Diggs (a deal that netted a second-round pick that Buffalo can use to move up) and watching Gabe Davis leave in free agency, the Bills are shorthanded at wideout. They signed receivers Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins in free agency. They have slot receiver Khalil Shakir coming back. But that's about it. The depth chart tells me they need more talent at the position, even with Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end.

If there was one hint about what the Bills might do, it came with the following piece of information: Beane said Buffalo doesn't have 28 players with first-round grades. If he wants to make his first-rounder pick into a true first-round prospect, then he might just have to move up.

Let's just say that Beane is fixed on taking a receiver (which, admittedly, we don't know for sure). We're likely to see the first tier of receivers go in the top 10 picks. Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze are such impressive prospects that they'd all generally grade out as WR1 in basically every class except this one. Certainly, they could have all been the WR1 for last year's class.

To get into a slot where Beane could reasonably draft one of those players, he'd have to start by packaging his 28th-overall selection with a 2025 first-round pick — a scenario that he addressed.

"I don't love trading future ones," he said. "If it makes sense, I'll do it. But I don't love it. … If there's something that makes too much sense, heck yeah."

He added: "There were times in Carolina [as the assistant GM] — some of my younger years — where we did trade it and I felt more times that we were disappointed later that we did it. That player we got [with the future first-rounder] didn't put us all the way at the top. And you get to the next draft and you go, ‘We would've been picking 17th. Look who we could've had.'"

While those receivers are elite prospects, they are still prospects. It's unclear what they'll be in the NFL. And two first-rounders (just to start) might be too much capital to risk on a wideout.

So who's next?

LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is widely considered WR4 on the board. He seems like a candidate to go somewhere in the top 20 selections. Given Thomas' impressive film and the need around the NFL for cheap and productive receivers (and what I've heard from scouts), it seems like a safe bet that Thomas goes off the board before Buffalo selects. Again, if Beane wants to move up, he'll likely have to give up either this year's second-round pick — or something similar.

Many, many, many media members see this move up the board. Our own Rob Rang, for example, projected this scenario: a Bills' trade up to 16th to get Thomas.

Bills Mafia (judging from tweets) appears enamored with Thomas. And for good reason. While he was the WR2 at LSU, he projects nicely into the Buffalo offense as WR1.

But the beauty of this draft class is that there is no shortage of options at receiver. The Bills might be able to get a perimeter threat at No. 28. 

Texas receiver Adonai Mitchell seems to be WR5. He is a better athlete than Thomas, but because Mitchell finished his college career in the Texas offense, his production never wowed. And what makes him, perhaps, a misfit for the Bills is that he lacks in run after the catch. That's a particular point of production that Buffalo has been seeking for years, as noted by The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia. But Mitchell plays the X position that Buffalo needs to fill.

Most teams are likely to have a first-round grade on Mitchell. Will the Bills?

Past the top five receivers, there is no real consensus. And that's because there are so many good players at the position who will go in the 25 to 60 range.

Mitchell sits atop a tier of receivers that includes Georgia's Ladd McConkey (slot speedster who separates), South Carolina's Xavier Legette (athletic freak lacking polish), Michigan's Roman Wilson (tough and fast but lacking production), Texas' Xavier Worthy (fast but inconsistent), Oregon's Troy Franklin (slender vertical threat), Florida State's Keon Coleman (big-bodied but maybe not quite agile) and UCF's Javon Baker (big, physical, lumbering perimeter threat).

They all come with risks. 

And perhaps that's all the more reason for the Bills to — if they cannot or do not want to move up — decide to descend the draft board to target someone they like in the second round and pick up additional picks to bolster a roster that dealt with major cap casualties during the offseason.

Remember that brutal week that Buffalo had before free agency? This offseason, the Bills cut cornerback Tre'Davious White, safety Jordan Poyer, center Mitch Morse, defensive back Siran Neal, returner and receiver Deonte Harty and running back Nyheim Hines. They traded away Diggs. And then in free agency, the Bills saw Davis, cornerback Dane Jackson and the bulk of their running back and defensive line depth depart in free agency. 

This team looks really solid at the starting level. But past that? They need help. This is the perfect draft for Beane to hit a number of positions with eyes to the future. 

If Beane wants to move up and can’t — or decides against a move up — it might be a silver lining. He can trade back and get more picks, draft and develop a receiver from Day 2 without leveraging or compromising the opportunity to do the same thing at other positions. 

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.