2024 college football rankings: RJ Young's Ultimate 134
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Welcome to my ultimate 134 college football rankings.
These rankings are fluid, but my job has always been to look ahead and make a claim based on what I know and why I know it. I start with three questions:
- Who do I think is good?
- Why do I think they're good?
- What are the chances they will finish above or below my expectations?
These are the three questions I thought about most when ranking all 134 programs in the Football Subdivision as I set out to write a piece that is exhaustive and detailed. At the end, more than 15,000 words later, I wrote about who I think is good and why I think they're good.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The process included excessive reading and studying of rosters, transfer portal additions and attrition, 2024 recruiting classes, changes in coaches, changes in philosophy, changes in athletic department administration and grasping what the addition of new members to the four most powerful conferences might mean in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff. In this ranking, you'll find that I accounted for all of those details. You'll find that I accounted for variables like predicted strength of schedule, star players, and players I expect will become household names by season's end.
None of that was as difficult as shaping the 134 into a piece that reflects my sensibilities within my traditional top 25, which often reflects who I think is most likely to win the national championship: For instance, I ranked Michigan No. 1 after Week 5 last year — a full nine weeks before either the AP or CFP Selection Committee finally did the same. And the Wolverines won the 2024 national title.
With that, here is a look at my ultimate 134 college football rankings heading into the 2024 season.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Have an issue with my rankings? Think your alma mater is too low, or your school's rival is too high? Get at me on Twitter, @RJ_Young, and I'll select my favorite tweets and respond to them in a future article.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes / P4 / Big Ten
No program made a bigger splash — splashes, really — than the Ohio State Buckeyes during the winter transfer portal period. In addition to bringing back an abundance of talent from last year's team, including back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, Ryan Day also managed to land a talented group of transfers with quarterback Will Howard, running back Quinshon Judkins and defensive back Caleb Downs. With these new additions to an already talented team, Day has successfully navigated through a raucous spring portal period with finesse.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The Buckeyes have lost to Michigan three years in a row, haven't won a Big Ten title in four years, and have not won a national title since 2014. Penn State might be tough, as will Oregon. But we're on a journey to Nov. 30, when the world will find out just who this Buckeye team is against the team that matters more than any on their schedule: Michigan.
Ohio State Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (-150) Under 10.5 (+125)
2. Georgia Bulldogs / P4 / SEC
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Georgia is loaded with veterans, as 14 starters return from last year's squad, including one of the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites, Carson Beck (+800), who led the SEC in passing last year. However, the Bulldogs are going to have to earn it this year, with only three true SEC home games. They'll face Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss all on the road.
Linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. is the most talented inside linebacker in the country and has a chance to give UGA its second Butkus Award winner in four years. Safety KJ Bolden is the most exciting true freshman addition to the SEC behind Ellis Robinson IV, who might be the most talented freshman corner UGA has had since Kelee Ringo.
If there is one weakness on this Georgia team, it's at a position that has been marked a strength in the Kirby Smart era: defensive tackle. Nazir Stackhouse is UGA's best interior defender. He started every game for the Dawgs last year, but notched just two sacks in 2023. Next best on the list is Warren Brinson, who posted just two sacks in 13 games last year, and they came against UAB and Vanderbilt.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Georgia Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (-125) Under 10.5 (+105)
3. Texas Longhorns / P4 / SEC
Under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have gone from five wins in 2021, to eight wins in 2022, to 12 wins last year. Now comes the next step: making the SEC championship game in the program's first year as members.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Texas’ schedule features just three true SEC road games: Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Longhorns have won their last seven true road games, including at Alabama last year, and they're bringing all of that to Ann Arbor for the first time in 155 years of the sport.
And then there's this: Texas and Oklahoma are the newest members to the SEC. The conference hasn't seen a new member win the conference championship in 32 years.
Texas Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (+150) Under 10.5 (-180)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}4. Oregon Ducks / P4 / Big Ten
Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein went to get a gunslinger from my woods (Oklahoma) in Dillon Gabriel, who became the first Sooner QB to throw eight TDs in a game and has passed for more than 14,000 yards in his career. Gabriel ranks No. 8 on the all-time passing list (14,865 yards), one spot behind Heisman winner Ty Detmer (15,031) and two spots behind the last starting QB at Oregon, Bo Nix (15,351).
Gabriel will be throwing the ball to wide out Tez Johnson, who caught 86 passes for 1,182 yards and 10 TDs as the No. 2 target in the offense last year. He'll be joined by Evan Stewart, a former five-star prospect who has yet to reach his potential.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Among teams with the five toughest schedules according to their opponents' combined 2023 record — Florida, USC, Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Oregon, respectively — the Ducks look most likely to run the table.
Oregon Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (+100) Under 10.5 (-120)
5. Florida State Seminoles / P4 / ACC
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Mike Norvell is close to putting FSU back where Bobby Bowden had them for the better part of the 1990s, replacing 10 NFL Draft picks with players of equal talent. The only returning skill player who started on offense for the Seminoles last year is tight end Kyle Morlock, so Norvell went shopping and came back with a former five-star QB in DJ Uiagalelei, as well as Alabama transfers Terrence Ferguson, Malik Benson and Roydell Williams.
This season looks like a gauntlet-run for the Noles, who play at Southern Methodist on Sept. 28, host Clemson on Oct. 5, and go on the road against Miami on Oct. 26.
Florida State Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (-110) Under 9.5 (-110)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}6. Ole Miss Rebels / P4 / SEC
Lane Kiffin has won 10 or more games two out of the last three years and became the first coach in program history to lead Ole Miss to an 11-win season. Now, heading into 2024, Kiffin needs to make use of this golden era of Ole Miss football.
The Rebels return starting QB Jaxson Dart and have managed to fill the hole left by Judkins (Ohio State). They have an All-Slept-On transfer at tailback in Rashad Amos, who rushed for 1,075 yards and 13 TDs at Miami (Ohio) last year.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}If Pete Golding's defense is able to shut down quality opponents, we're talking about Ole Miss possibly hosting a playoff game. The addition of 6-foot-4, 290-pound Walter Nolen can help that. As a sophomore, Nolen notched four sacks and 37 tackles. He could develop into the best defensive tackle to play at Ole Miss since Breeland Speaks.
Ole Miss Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (-115) Under 9.5 (-105)
7. LSU Tigers / P4 / SEC
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The Heisman winner is gone. The offensive coordinator who created the Heisman winner is gone. The top two wideouts are gone. But the Bayou Bengals remain talented. They simply need a new talisman — all aboard the Nuss Bus.
Given Garrett Nussmeier's ability, Kyren Lacy's speed, and the best offensive tackle tandem in the sport in Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., the worry isn't whether Brian Kelly's squad will score, but whether new LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker can keep opponents from scoring.
LSU gave up 28 points per game last year, including 30 to Texas A&M, 31 to Arkansas, 35 to Florida, 39 to Missouri, 42 to Alabama, 45 to Florida State and 55 to Ole Miss.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}LSU Win Total Odds: Over 9 (-120) Under 9 (+100)
8. Michigan Wolverines / P4 / Big Ten
Following a 15-0 season and the first national title won by Michigan since 1997, Sherrone Moore is tasked with not fixing what ain't broken and keeping the Michigan Man machine on track to run it back.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Moore is going to get the full dose of one of the toughest schedules in the country. Michigan's opponents combined to go 98-59 last year, and every last one of them is coming for the defending champs.
In 2023, Moore acted as head coach and play-caller and held up to the pressure of his post. That was last year. Let's see if you can run it back.
Michigan Win Total Odds: Over 9 (+115) Under 9 (-135)
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}9. Alabama Crimson Tide / P4 / SEC
Kalen DeBoer did an impressive job to stop the bleeding after Nick Saban announced his retirement from the sport and opened a 30-day period for Alabama players to enter the transfer portal. He is also one of the most successful active coaches in the sport, with an astounding 104-12 record as a head coach, including three NAIA national titles at Sioux Fall.
His most important players include quarterback Jalen Milroe, who fell 2 yards short of giving the Tide one more opportunity to be featured in the national title game, and defensive back Malachi Moore, who is the best defender new defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has at his disposal. Meanwhile, incoming freshman wideout Ryan Williams figures to be appointment TV as one of the most decorated players in the country out of high school.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}While Alabama lost plenty of talent to the portal with Saban's retirement, DeBoer has brought in the best center in the country in Parker Brailsford, former Texas A&M defensive lineman LT Overton, Michigan safety Keon Sabb and the most underrated portal acquisition of the year in Graham Nicholson.
Alabama Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (+120) Under 9.5 (-140)
10. Missouri Tigers / P4 / SEC
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}After defeating a depleted Ohio State team in the Cotton Bowl, the football scheduling gods saw fit to give the Tigers the softest schedule in the SEC. Not only do Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers avoid Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and LSU this year, but they will play half of their games against teams with first-year head coaches.
With Brady Cook and Luther Burden returning, Drinkwitz could end up with a 3,500-yard passer and 1,500-yard receiver on a team that will not face a preseason top 25 opponent until Week 6 (Texas A&M) and likley won't play more than three (Oklahoma, Alabama) all year. Theo Wease is capable of being a go-to target if Burden draws 1-on-1s, but so is All-Slept-On tight end Brett Norfleet, who is going up against undersized DBs and slow linebackers at 6-7, 235 pounds.
On defense, Corey Batoon takes over for Blake Baker after coordinating a South Alabama defense that ranked 15th in the country in total defense in 2023. If 6-6, 260-pound five-star freshman Williams Nwaneri plays early, expect the Tiger defensive line to hunt.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Missouri Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (+135) Under 9.5 (-160)
11. Oklahoma Sooners / P4 / SEC
In Oklahoma, it ain't about winning 10 games like the Sooners have done in seven of the last nine seasons. It's about winning championships: the SEC, the national title and waving both at Lincoln Riley. Just don't remind Sooner fans that Riley has made three CFPs in his first four years, while Venables has yet to coach Oklahoma to anything better than attempting to defend the Alamo, which has historically been a losing proposition.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Billy Bowman is one of the best free safeties in the country, and he showed that last year, recording 63 tackles, six INTs and three TDs on a team that finished 10-3. The Sooners also have Danny Stutsman back in the middle of the defense. He will be joined by freshman defensive tackle David Stone, who might end the season as SEC Defensive Freshman of the Year.
Oklahoma Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (+100)
12. Utah Utes / P4 / Big 12
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}This is a bet on Kyle Whittingham and Cam Rising. With Rising at quarterback, Utah played in back-to-back Rose Bowls with back-to-back Pac-12 titles. The Utes also return tight end Brant Kuithe, who could be the best tight end in the league.
Utah's road matchup against Oklahoma State on Sept. 21 could be a preview of the Big 12 title game, especially if Rising and outstanding wideout Dorian Singer form a partnership. With Kuithe, Mycah Pittman and Micah Bernard — who will be backed up by 1,100-yard Idaho rusher Anthony Woods — all expected to play major roles in the offense, there's no reason to believe this team can't become the second team under Whittingham to run the table.
Utah Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (-145) Under 9.5 (+125)
13. Tennessee Volunteers / P4 / SEC
We spill a lot of ink on Josh Heupel's uptempo offense, and we will yet again with five-star QB Nico Iamaleava leading the Volunteers for the first time. Until their loss to Alabama last year — a game they led at halftime — the Vols looked like a New Year's Six Bowl team, if not a contender for the SEC East title.
Running the ball might be a problem for this team with just one of their top-three rushers returning from last season. Cameron Seldon and Khalifa Keith will have to quite literally hit the ground running, but the guy who might most pop is true freshman Peyton Lewis. He's explosive with a 200-meter dash time of 21.20 and a handful of Virginia state high school titles to show for it.
The Vols will have a lot to figure out about their team in non-conference play, including a Week 2 test against North Carolina State.
Tennessee Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-170) Under 8.5 (+145)
14. Penn State Nittany Lions / P4 / Big Ten
James Franklin has won nine or more games in eight of his 10 seasons at Penn State. He's won 10 or more games five times in the last eight years. He's produced Micah Parsons, Saquon Barkley and five trips to New Year's Six Bowl games. There's an argument that he's done more with less too: Franklin has produced just three All-Americans while Lincoln Riley has produced seven. Both have the same number of CFP semifinal wins, and Franklin has yet to coach in one.
Yet that's not the story in State College. The sad story in Happy Valley is that Franklin hasn't been able to get past Ohio State and Michigan, and when beating those two programs are the difference between playing in the CFP or being relegated to the nearest NY6 designation, it's difficult not to hold a grudge.
It's not just that Ohio State and Michigan have ruled the Big Ten for the better part of two decades or that Penn State has just one conference title since the Big Ten expanded to 14 teams. It's that James Franklin is 4-16 against Ohio State and Michigan with just one of those wins coming against the Buckeyes, and he's never doubled up the kings of the conference in any one year.
In 2024, the Nittany Lions don't see Michigan, and they are no longer in a division that boxes them into third place. They see Ohio State and USC. They'll get the full dose from West Virginia in their opener, but they should be favored in 10 of their 12 games. If there's a breakthrough year to be had, they don't get much better than this one.
Penn State Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (+140) Under 10.5 (-165)
15. Oklahoma State Cowboys / P4 / Big 12
The Cowboys should be as talented as any team they face all year — including Arkansas and Utah. They return the best tailback on either side of the Mason-Dixon Line in Ollie Gordon (1,732 rushing yards) all five starters on that 2023 offensive line, a seventh-year QB who threw for 3,460 yards, a receiver who fell just 9 yards short of 1,000 yards receiving in Brennan Presley, and three 100-tackle performers, including Nick Martin, who notched 140 tackles in 2023. Martin is one of nine returning starters on a defense that coordinator Bryan Nardo ought to be able to make into one of the nation's best.
Oklahoma State ought to be on a warpath this season. This is the most experienced team in the entire country, and the Cowboys skip both Texas and Oklahoma on their schedule for the first time since 1905.
Oklahoma State Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-130) Under 8 (+110)
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish / P4 / Ind.
Marcus Freeman has demonstrated he's more than capable of shouldering all that comes with being head coach at Notre Dame, namely hiring a third-straight offensive coordinator in as many years, naming a third starter at QB in as many years and still managing to win at least nine games in each of his first two seasons.
With Riley Leonard at quarterback and Mike Denbrock calling the plays, the ingredients are there for Freeman's Fighting Irish to make a run at the national title. If Denbrock can get Leonard back to his 2022 form — 2,967 passing yards, 699 rushing yards, 33 total TDs — he could develop the former Duke signal-caller into a Heisman finalist and perhaps his second-straight Heisman winner as an offensive coordinator.
Defensively, Benjamin Morrison is expected to return from injury in time for ND's date with Texas A&M. He has nine INTs over the past two years while solidifying himself as one of the best cover corners in the sport. Xavier Watts showed himself to be one of the best safeties in the sport last year with seven picks, and I fully expect Howard Cross III to be a top 10-caliber NFL Draft selection.
Notre Dame Win Total Odds: Over 10 (-115) Under 10 (-105)
17. USC Trojans / P4 / Big Ten
It's looking like Miller Moss will start under center for Lincoln Riley this year, with Jayden Maiava waiting for an opportunity. Given Riley's track record of producing Heisman winners (three) and No. 1 overall picks (three), Moss is in line to inherit an offense that is renowned for producing QBs that the NFL loves. He must remember that he has Zachariah Branch, who should be featured in the run, passing and return game in 2024.
USC plays one of the two toughest schedules in the sport. The Trojans' 2024 opponents combined to go 105-53 last season. Nine of the 12 teams on USC's 2024 slate were ranked in 2023 and 11 won at least one game against a ranked opponent.
USC Win Total Odds: Over 7 (-140) Under 7 (+120)
18. Kansas State Wildcats / P4 / Big 12
With the addition of former Colorado running back Dylan Edwards, Chris Klieman's team will once again have the necessary speed and versatility in the backfield to take advantage of their old-school run-oriented attack. Avery Johnson is one of the most capable dual-threat quarterbacks in the Big 12. The 2023 Pop Tarts Bowl MVP — put that on a business card, Avery — became the first K-State true freshman quarterback to start and win a bowl game. He also succeeded in earning honorable mention as Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year despite making just two starts and playing in eight games.
New co-OC Matt Wells knows how to get the most out of both Edwards and fellow running back DJ Giddens, who enjoyed a breakout year with 1,223 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rush as a sophomore. This is a group that expects to compete for the Big 12 title.
Kansas State Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (+125) Under 9.5 (-145)
19. Clemson Tigers / P4 / ACC
Dabo Swinney has made the College Football Playoff six out of the last nine years. He has had four national title appearances during that span, and has won two of them. With the playoff expanding and no Nick Saban to worry about, Swinney and Clemson have a program that might take full advantage of its continuity.
Getting past Florida State, Georgia and a Virginia Tech team that might turn heads this season, are the obvious obstacles for the Tigers. But they'll be the first to tell you FSU was lucky to escape Death Valley with a victory last year, and no one has the goods on DJ Uiagalelei quite like Swinney. The Tigers' linebacking corps might be the best in the country with Barrett Carter and five-star freshman Sammy Brown, and they'll get after the quarterback.
Clemson Win Total Odds: Over 9.5 (+135) Under 9.5 (-160)
20. Kansas Jayhawks / P4 / Big 12
Now is the time for the Jayhawks to take control of the most wide open race for the Big 12 title since its inception 29 years ago. Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal each have the talent to be the best players in this conference and lead KU to its best season since 2007.
Former LSU assistant Jeff Grimes is now calling the offense, and all he did was convince the NFL that Zach Wilson was a first-round draft pick. Defensively, Cobee Bryant is the best cornerback in the Big 12, and he showed that with five passes defended, four INTs, a sack, and a forced fumble last year.
Kansas Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-125) Under 8 (+105)
21. West Virginia Mountaineers / P4 / Big 12
The Mountaineers closed out the 2023 season on a high note, winning five of their last six games, and scoring 30 or more points in each of those five victories.
Thirteen starters return from that nine-win team, including the team's running back duo of Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson. White went for 842 yards on the ground — including 204 on 21 rushes against Cincinnati — while Donaldson rumbled for 798 rushing yards. I wouldn't be surprised to find us talking about WVU in 2024 like we did North Carolina in 2020 with dynamic tailbacks Michael Carter and Javonte Williams setting the table for a season that ended in the Orange Bowl.
West Virginia Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-130) Under 6.5 (+110)
22. Texas A&M Aggies / P4 / SEC
Mike Elko made Duke a winner — overnight. He turned the 3-9 2021 Blue Devils into the 9-4 2022 Blue Devils. Without a healthy Riley Leonard, he still managed to win eight games in an ACC that FSU ran through. That's enough for me to think he can turn around a program with the biggest monetary advantage in the sport and the most fertile recruiting ground there is.
After going 12-12 the last two years, the program came up with $76 million to tell their former national title-winning head coach Jimbo Fisher, "you ain't gotta go home, but you can't stay here." And while the last two years were mediocre, Fisher finished 45-25 at A&M. This is not a group with a long fuse for losing. So make sure you get it done in a hurry, Coach Elko.
Texas A&M Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-120) Under 8.5 (+100)
23. Arizona Wildcats / P4 / Big 12
Before departing, Jedd Fisch built a team that won 10 games and beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. All Brent Brennan has to do is acknowledge that it ain't broke, so don't fix it.
Noah Fifita threw for 300-plus yards five times last year — including 527 against Arizona State, 303 against USC and 354 against OU. Tetairoa McMillan caught 90 passes for 1,402 yards — second in the Pac-12 to Rome Odunze last year. With Jonah Savaiinaea returning to help protect Fifita, the offense ought to have a side hustle as an electric company with how it should light up scoreboards from Morgantown to Manhattan.
Can the Wildcats get 10 wins in 2024? Probably not. But nine? In the new Big 12? Where they dodge Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State? I can see it.
Arizona Win Total Odds: Over 8 (+125) Under 8 (-150)
24. Iowa Hawkeyes / P4 / Big Ten
Just don't embarrass Hawkeye fans on offense, and you're sitting pretty with Phil Parker's defense.
While the offensive line continues to be a strength at Iowa, offensive coordinator Tim Lester's ability to acquire Brendan Sullivan out of the portal should be appreciated. Sullivan, who led Northwestern to an eight-win season in the midst of turmoil with an interim and first-time head coach, will likely begin the season backing up starter Cade McNamara and providing quality depth.
Yes, Iowa plays at Ohio State. But the Hawkeyes might be favored in every other game they play this season. No Michigan, Penn State, Oregon or USC. But with Parker calling the defense, Sebastian Castro in the secondary and Aaron Graves on the edge, this should be a dominant defense.
Iowa Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-115) Under 8 (-105)
25. Iowa State Cyclones / P4 / Big 12
When Matt Campbell is done in Ames, Iowa, I expect to hear about a statue of him being built in front of Jack Trice Stadium. In seven years, he produced a unanimous All-American in Breece Hall, won the program's first major bowl game and has quadrupled the number of eight-win seasons the program had from 1979 to 2016.
This year Campbell's got 19 starters back, including quarterback Rocco Becht, who passed for 3,120 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs, and wideout Jayden Higgins, who ranked second in the league in receiving yards with 983 on 53 catches.
Defensively, Jeremiah Cooper is the most underrated safety in the sport, finishing last season with five interceptions, 15 passes defended and 10 pass breakup. Good luck with that, Big 12.
Iowa State Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (+100)
26. Miami (FL) Hurricanes / P4 / ACC
With Cam Ward and Damien Martinez, Mario Cristobal has the most talented quarterback-running back combination in the ACC. Cristobal and the Hurricanes also have a favorable schedule, with Florida State being the only team on their slate that was ranked in the final AP Poll last year. They also get the Seminoles in the comfy confines of Coral Gables. Florida, Duke and Louisville figure to be Miami's toughest foes, meaning they dodge Notre Dame, Clemson and Virginia Tech this season.
Miami Win Total Odds: Over 9 (-125) Under 9 (+105)
27. Wisconsin Badgers / P4 / Big Ten
The good news for Luke Fickell is that he returns 14 starters off a team that finished 7-5, even with a loss in their bowl game against LSU. The bad news is none of those players are Braelon Allen, and offensive coordinator Phil Longo will be breaking in a brand-new starter at QB in Tyler Van Dyke or Braedyn Locke.
Van Dyke is an experienced starter who passed for 2,700 yards and 19 TDs in two out of the last three years. When he's on, he's one of the best in the sport with 11 300-yard passing performances in 30 games. He also has seven games with multiple picks.
Defensively, Hunter Wohler is the best box safety in the sport. Last year, he posted 120 tackles — the most by a Big Ten DB — and he became the first Big Ten DB with 110 or more tackles, two or more INTs and a sack since safety Jordan Kovacs notched 116 tackles, a sack and two INTs at Michigan in 2010. He's the first Badger to perform that feat since Reggie Holt in 1991.
Wisconsin Win Total Odds: Over 7 (+115) Under 7 (-135)
28. Kentucky Wildcats / P4 / SEC
Mark Stoops has put the Wildcats into eight straight bowl games. If they make a ninth-straight postseason appearance, defensive lineman Deone Walker will likely have quite a bit to do with it. At 6-6, 348 pounds, Walker led the team in tackles for loss (12.5) and sacks (7.5) last season. Teams won't double-team him as often with former Georgia linebacker and two-time national champion Jamon Dumas-Johnson joining UK through the portal.
The jewel in Stoops' 2024 transfer portal class has to be former five-star QB and UGA backup Brock Vandagriff, who could be the Wildcats' most talented quarterback since Tim Couch, who is still the only 4,000-yard passer in UK history.
Kentucky Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-115) Under 6.5 (-105)
29. Arkansas Razorbacks / P4 / SEC
Nobody wants to be head coach at Arkansas more than Sam Pittman. I know this because he followed up a disappointing 2023 season with going back to one of the most successful and controversial figures in Razorback sports history, hiring former head coach and play-caller extraordinaire Bobby Petrino to run his offense.
Petrino comes over from calling plays at Texas A&M, and this will be his third SEC West spot as an OC, but there's no hiding this is a high-risk, high-reward play for Pittman. Adding to the risk? Taylen Green is slated to start Week 1. He's 6-6 and has all the tools, but Arkansas' only gimme on the schedule is its opener against UAPB.
Arkansas Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-110) Under 4.5 (-110)
30. North Carolina State Wolfpack / P4 / ACC
Perhaps the most underrated coach in the entire ACC — if not on a short list across the country — Dave Doeren is synonymous with winning. In 13 years, he's had just two losing seasons and won seven or more games 11 times. But one of the reasons Doeren's name doesn't get dropped for bigger-name jobs is he rarely has a team that can play at a high level all year.
In 2023, NC State started 4-3 before winning five in a row to close out the regular season. With Clemson and Tennessee making up two of their first four opponents, it might be a close-fast-kind-of-year in Raleigh, and I'd be shocked if N.C. State didn't finish with seven, eight or even nine wins, because that's what this program does. They've only failed to win seven games once in the Doeren era and have never won 10.
North Carolina State Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-130) Under 8.5 (+110)
31. Nebraska Cornhuskers / P4 / Big Ten
Matt Rhule's 2023 squad squandered four chances to finish the season at 6-6. Some of that had to do with not being able to throw the ball with consistency. Some of it had to do with not knowing how to finish games. The Huskers' last four games all resulted in losses and all were one-score games, with three of them being three-point losses.
With Dylan Raiola, a five-star QB and son of Dominic Raiola, firmly expected to begin 2024 as the Huskers' starter, throwing the ball should not be the problem it was in 2023. Tony White's defense could be his best yet, and Rhule could follow through on giving Nebraska its first game in the postseason since 2016, which is the last year the Huskers recorded a winning season.
Nebraska Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-125) Under 7.5 (+105)
32. SMU Mustangs / P4 / ACC
SMU finished 11-3, 8-0 in the AAC and won the conference title in its final season. Preston Stone Jr. can sling it. Jaylan Knighton and former five-star Camar Wheaton can run it. And Jordan Hudson can take the top off the defense. I wouldn't be surprised to find out we're talking about the Mustangs this year like we did Louisville last year.
The Methodists face Florida State in Week 5 at home, which will likely be their only top 25 opponent on a pillowy-soft schedule.
SMU Total Win Odds: Over 8 (-135) Under 8 (+115)
33. Maryland Terrapins / P4 / Big Ten
Maryland has won eight games in back-to-back years under Mike Locksley, but the Terps have only won nine games in a season twice since 2003. One of the sticking points for Maryland is its awful record against ranked conference opponents since joining the Big Ten. The Terps are 0-34 against ranked Big Ten opponents since joining the conference in 2014.
The leap has to take place soon for Locksley. Last year was the Terps' best chance with just two ranked opponents on the schedule. They skip both Ohio State and Michigan this season, but have to travel to play both Oregon and Penn State on the road.
Maryland Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+105) Under 6.5 (-125)
34. Texas Tech Red Raiders / P4 / Big 12
For Tech, it's about starting the way you finish. After beginning the 2023 campaign 4-5, the Red Raiders won their last four games. One reason for that is inconsistency at QB. With Tyler Shough's season-ending leg injury, Behren Morton got eight of the last nine starts, throwing for 1,757 yards, 15 TDs and eight picks during that time.
Joey McGuire returns 14 starters from last year's team, including star running back Tahj Brooks, who rushed for 1,538 yards last season. Ben Roberts is the triggerman on Tim DeRuyter's defense. As a redshirt freshman last year, he accounted for 107 tackles, 6.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception.
Texas Tech Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-105) Under 7.5 (-115)
35. Louisville Cardinals / P4 / ACC
Jeff Brohm's first season at Louisville was one of the most memorable in school history as he became the first Cardinals coach since 1925 to begin the season 6-0. Along with a win against Notre Dame, Brohm led Louisville to its first-ever appearance in the ACC title game and a 10-3 season.
This year, I expect teams will see the Cardinals coming. And the Cardinals are coming. Brohm succeeded in recruiting his own roster with 15 starters returning, got better at quarterback in recruiting former Oregon and Texas Tech starter Tyler Shough and former Alabama wideout Ja'Corey Brooks to fortify a team that feels capable of getting back to the ACC title game. Defensively, seven players made starts in 2023, but none is more important than EDGE Ashton Gillotte, who accounted for 11 sacks and three forced fumbles.
Louisville Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+115) Under 8.5 (-135)
36. Rutgers Scarlet Knights / P4 / Big Ten
Rutgers returns the leading rusher in the Big Ten, which bears repeating. Kyle Monangai ran for 1,262 yards in 2023 with seven 100-yard rushing performances. I didn't expect to write that at this time last year, but the Scarlet Knights not only made a bowl game, but won one against Miami (FL). It was their first bowl win since 2014.
This year's roster might be Greg Schiano's best since he won 11 games at Rutgers 18 years ago, and he has the most accommodating schedule in the Big Ten: No Ohio State, no Michigan, no Oregon, no Iowa. UCLA comes to Piscataway, and their toughest away game is at the Coliseum.
Rutgers Win Total Odds: Over 6 (-140) Under 6 (+120)
37. Memphis Tigers / P4 / AAC
The Seth Henigan-Roc Taylor show ought to be in full effect following a 10-win season in 2023. Henigan, who passed for more than 3,800 yards last year, could be a 4,000-yard, 40-TD passer in 2024. Memphis also added former Oklahoma EDGE and Tennessee native Reggie Grimes through the portal.
The Tigers have an all-mighty non-conference showdown with reigning ACC champ Florida State. With $25 million over the next five years thanks to the biggest city of Memphis fans in the world — Fred Smith and FedEx — they're not just hunting the American Athletic Conference title, but their first CFP bid.
Memphis Win Total Odds: Over 9 (+100) Under 9 (-130)
38. Auburn Tigers / P4 / SEC
Auburn finished 6-7 last year, but lost three of its four games against ranked opponents — including the SEC title game participants, plus Ole Miss — by single digits. If Payton Thorne can just be decent — and he should be with five-star Cam Coleman out in routes — the Tigers could be a surprise contender in the SEC.
Coleman should be one of the best freshman receivers in the country this season. He, along with Alabama's Ryan Williams, both came out of the state of Alabama. They should be showstoppers in Iron Bowls to come.
Auburn Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (+125) Under 7.5 (-145)
39. James Madison Dukes / G5 / SBC
In this edition of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," we feature an 11-win Dukes team in 2023, which will be led by one of the most successful FCS coaches of the last five years in Bob Chesney.
While losing Curt Cignetti might feel a lot like spilling beer from your Yeti — he went 52-9 in five years — Chesney ain't a bad play for the Harrisonburg Boys of Falls. And he's already getting good at this scholarship thing, bringing in Ayo Adeyi, who rushed for 1,017 yards on just 143 rushes at North Texas last year, as well as Dylan Morris — yeah, that one — and Jacob Dobbs, who had 123 tackles at Holy Cross. Chesney also added former Long Island DE Eric O'Neill, who totaled 23.5 tackles for loss last year.
James Madison Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-130) Under 8 (+100)
40. Appalachian State Mountaineers / G5 / SBC
Appalachian State made putting money in the bag a national event when it beat Michigan into 34-32 submission. Lloyd Carr led that Michigan team, which finished 9-4. It was no fluke, and App. State's steady build to G5 NY6 bowl contender hasn't been either.
In Year 5, coach Shawn Clark turns to Diablo Valley Community College's own Joey Aguilar, who threw for 3,757 yards with 33 TDs and 10 picks last year. All six of the Mountaineers' top receivers return. Defensive linemen Santana Hopper and Nate Johnson came back after combining for 16 tackles for loss, and Jordan Favors is back at safety where he made four INTs last year.
Appalachian State Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-120) Under 8 (-110)
41. Colorado Buffaloes / P4 / Big 12
The Buffs had more than 40 players transfer for the second year in a row. After going 4-8 last year — 3-0 to start and then 1-8 to finish — Deion Sanders elevated Pat Shurmur to the permanent offensive coordinator position, hired Robert Livingston to coach the defense and Phil Loadholt to coach what was the worst offensive line in the P5 last season.
Signature signee Jordan Seaton might help keep presumptive first-round pick Shedeur Sanders upright — sacked more than 50 times in 11 games — but the entire offensive line at CU will be the focal point of the 2024 Buffs with games against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, Nebraska and a Colorado State team that nearly upset them at home last year.
Colorado Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-140) Under 5.5 (+120)
42. Liberty Flames / G5 / C-USA
The reigning Conference USA champion is representative of the change that has engulfed the sport over the past 30 years. In fact, when the FBS grows from 133 to 136 teams in 2025, know that 32 of them were C-USA teams.
The Flames took a 13-0 record into the Fiesta Bowl against Pac-12 runner-up Oregon and got beat like a piñata. Still, Jamey Chadwell enjoyed a hell of a season (13-1) and returns his star-studded backfield of Kaidon Salter (2,876 pass yards) and Quinton Cooley (1,401 rush yards with 16 TDs).
Liberty Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (-138) Under 10.5 (-125)
43. Florida Gators / P4 / SEC
The Gators play the finest schedule on the planet according to their opponents' combined 2023 résumé. The Gators' 2024 opponents went 106-50 last year. Ten of the teams on their schedule were ranked at some point last season.
This season will come down to how soon, and how often, we see five-star freshman QB DJ Lagway for a UF team that needs to find its way back to winning. Lagway passed for 4,604 yards with 58 TDs as a senior at Willis (Texas) High School while winning National Gatorade Player of the Year, the Bobby Dodd Award (High School's Heisman), MaxPreps Player of the Year, Elite 11 National High School Quarterback of the Year, and National Quarterback Club High School Quarterback of the Year — all accolades that are longhand for "stud."
On the defensive side of the ball, I'm excited to find out if tackle LJ McCray can make an impact right away. At 6-6, 280 pounds, he can be the kind of gate-crasher the Gators need to allow the linebacking corps the freedom to run by blockers and into the backfield.
Florida Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-155) Under 4.5 (+130)
44. Boise State Broncos / G5 / MWC
With former USC and five-star QB Malachi Nelson joining All-Mountain West running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos will have a backfield fit to challenge for the conference title. Jeanty tallied 1,926 yards from scrimmage with 19 TDs in 2023.
Boise State has a Week 2 date with Oregon, which will reveal a lot about both Boise State and the Mountain West.
Boise State Win Total Odds: Over 9 (-150) Under 9 (+120)
45. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns / G5 / SBC
Michael Desmoreaux is just 13-14 heading into Year 3 at the helm. If it's gonna come together in 2024, he'll cook with a pass rush attack that includes juniors Jordan Lawson and Cameron Whitfield, who combined for 15 sacks last season.
Louisiana Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (+110)
46. North Carolina Tar Heels / P4/ ACC
Yes, Mack Brown has had great quarterbacks: Vince Young, Colt McCoy, Drake Maye. But whenever he's had a brilliant tailback, he's always been lethal, and Omarion Hampton is the best one he's had since the late Cedric Benson.
Hampton finished with 1,504 rushing yards last year, and he might go for 2,000 yards this year because he is going to be the offense, as Brown is concerned. Just hand the ball to the dude wearing No. 28 and averaging 5.9 yards per carry last season, and you'll be fine.
UNC Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-115) Under 7.5 (-105)
47. Texas Christian Horned Frogs / P4 / Big 12
A year after coordinating a defense that ended up in the national title game, Joe Gillespie was shown the door and former Boise State coach Andy Avalos was welcomed in to fix it.
The offense had trouble finding its way in Kendal Briles' first year, but Josh Hoover tossing the ball for 412 against Baylor and 439 against Brigham Young is reason to hope the Horned Frogs can do more than make a mess in the Big 12. A healthy Trey Sanders, a former five-star and Alabama RB in his sixth year in the sport, could mean we're talking about TCU contending, too.
TCU Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (+125) Under 7.5 (-150)
48. BYU Cougars / P4 / Big 12
Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters from his 2023 squad, and as hardcore college football fans know, BYU players routinely average an age of 22 years old. But if the Cougars make the Big 12 title game this season, it will be because they did it the hard way, with four games against the five best teams in the conference.
BYU Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+105) Under 4.5 (-125)
49. UTSA Roadrunners / G5 / AAC
UTSA's Jeff Traylor has gone 39-14 in four years at the helm. He added former Alabama linebackers Ian Jackson and Kendrick Blackshire, as well as former LSU corner Denver Harris. On top of this, the Roadrunners return 11 starters on defense.
Former Auburn QB Dematrius Davis is a dude. So is Owen McCown, Josh McCown's son, who went 22-of-31 for 251 yards against Marshall. Watch out for the Roadrunners in the AAC.
UTSA Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-125) Under 8 (+105)
50. Troy Trojans / G5 / SBC
After a successful stint as offensive coordinator, Gerad Parker is tasked with "don't fix what ain't broken." Parker isn't exactly replacing Nick Saban, but he is stepping into a program that expects to win right away and challenge for the automatic bid in the extended CFP.
Troy Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110)
51. Duke Blue Devils / P4 / ACC
Naturally, after coordinating a Big Ten defense that led to back-to-back double-digit win seasons and back-to-back NY6 bowl appearances, Manny Diaz decided to go back to the horse that bucked him off, also known as the ACC. He went 21-15 across three seasons at Miami. But Duke? Only three coaches have been able to win eight games in a single season there: Steve Spurrier, David Cutcliffe and Elko, who took his 17 wins in two seasons and turned it in as his résumé to become the head coach at Texas A&M.
The Blue Devils have a manageable schedule with Florida State at home and Miami on the road as their only likely preseason top 25 opponents. Maalik Murphy is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the sport. If Diaz can field a defense that keeps the score down, Duke could go bowling for the third consecutive year.
Duke Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+130) Under 5.5 (-150)
52. Fresno State Bulldogs / G5 / MWC
While no one was paying attention east of California, Jeff Tedford picked up former No. 1 overall recruit and USC EDGE Korey Foreman, adding to a defense that has the talent to win the MWC title. But it's going to be the "Mikey Keene Show" in Fresno. After throwing for 2,976 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs on a team that finished 9-4, including three losses in their last four games in 2023, a 3,500-yard, 35-TD, 10-INT season might be the difference between nine wins and Fresno State winning the MWC championship.
Fresno State Win Total Odds: Over 8 (+110) Under 8 (-140)
53. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets / P4 / ACC
You mess with the Yellow Jackets? You're gonna get stung. Perhaps we've forgotten that. They sting until they're done, and they're never done. After starting the season 2-3, the Yellow Jackets won five of their last eight games, including wins against North Carolina and Miami.
With Haynes King back, an offensive line that features more than 100 starts and two All-ACC players, Tech has a chance to go bowling in back-to-back seasons for the first time in a decade.
Georgia Tech Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-120) Under 5 (+100)
54. UCF Knights / P4 / Big 12
The addition of former Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson should make Central Florida fans feel good for two reasons: 1. He adds another capable runner to a backfield that featured RJ Harvey, who rushed for 1,416 at 6.3 yards per rush last season. 2. Jefferson is the most physically gifted dual-threat quarterback Gus Malzahn has had since Cam Newton, and you know what Malzahn was capable of with Newton. Toledo transfer Peny Boone will get carries too after rushing for more than 1,400 yards last year.
UCF Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-125) Under 7.5 (+105)
55. Texas State Bobcats / G5 / SBC
Gary Joe Kinne III led Texas State with an 8-5 record last year and had a 3,520-yard passer in T.J. Finley, who holds the program record for passing yards in a season. Now he's got reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud running through his play sheet and a pass rush that includes Ben Bell and Tavian Coleman, who combined for 27 tackles for loss last year. Bell racked up 16 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in each of the last two years. He ought to be an All–American by year's end and a sleeper first-round NFL Draft pick.
Texas State Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-140) Under 8 (+110)
56. Arizona State Sun Devils / P4 / Big 12
Jaden Rashada is gone. Drew Pyne is gone. Jalin Conyers is gone. But I like what's left and what's been brought in, including former National Gatorade Player of the Year Jake Smith, former Houston standout Alton McCaskill, former Oklahoma EDGE Clayton Smith, Texas-ex Troy Omeire and former five-star Raleek Brown.
Turn Jeff Sims into the kind of QB who can take care of the football, earn the starting job, and then roll out like the team that had Washington on the ropes last year.
The non-conference schedule is no gimme: Wyoming, Mississippi State and Texas State before going into the teeth of a Big 12 schedule that features KU, K-State, Utah and Oklahoma State.
Arizona State Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+135) Under 4.5 (-160)
57. Cincinnati Bearcats / P4 / Big 12
After becoming the first G5 team in history to receive a CFP invite, the Bearcats made the move up and got beat down, going 1-8 in Big 12 play in Year 1. Scott Satterfield is still looking for a star to make himself known this 2024 season. With a non-conference schedule featuring Towson, Pittsburgh and Miami of Ohio, and a Big 12 schedule without Oklahoma State, Kansas or Utah on it, 6-6 is within reach.
Cincinnati Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-160) Under 5 (+135)
58. Virginia Tech Hokies / P4 / ACC
It took 17 games for Brent Pry to get the Hokies running — just 5-12 through that stretch — but it must be said that he did it in 2023. After a 1-3 start to the season, they won five of their last seven, including a 19-point win against No. 23 Tulane in the Military Bowl. Pry returns a bevy of experience to a team that won't face a preseason top 25 opponent until they travel to Miami. And with games at Vanderbilt, vs. Marshall, at Old Dominion and vs. Rutgers, they could be 3-1, or even 4-0, when they face the Hurricanes.
Virginia Tech Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+105) Under 8.5 (-125)
59. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers / G5 / C-USA
Tyson Helton has two capable starters for one spot at QB with Caden Veltkamp and T.J. Finley, who spent last year at Texas State and passed for 3,439 yards. Will Friend will have plenty of ways to keep that offensive attack prolific.
Western Kentucky Win Total Odds: Over 7 (-150) Under 7 (+120)
60. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers / G5 / SBC
Tim Beck lost Coastal legend Grayson McCall to injury after seven games and still won eight in 2023. Whether it's Michigan State's Noah Kim, incumbent Ethan Vasko or North Carolina transfer Tad Hudson, somebody gets to throw the ball to Andre Jones, who, at 6-4, averaged 22.7 yards per catch at Eastern New Mexico.
Coastal Carolina Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+105) Under 6.5 (-135)
61. South Carolina Gamecocks / P4 / SEC
Shane Beamer did a nice job in his first two seasons at SC with a 7-6 season in Year 1 and an 8-5 season in Year 2, which included a state championship win against Clemson. In 2023, the Gamecocks finished a disappointing 5-7, but they return 15 starters from that team this season. However, they've drawn one of the toughest schedules in the SEC — likely underdogs in nine out of 12 with games against Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU.
South Carolina Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-115) Under 5.5 (-105)
62. South Alabama Jaguars / G5 / SBC
I find it amusing that Major Applewhite was not only the man who was supposed to save Texas Longhorns football, but worked as Nick Saban's first offensive coordinator at Alabama and developed the best Houston Cougar defender who has ever lived in Ed Oliver, but we can't quite say he's a damn good coach. Call this a worthwhile second chance for Applewhite, who takes over the job Kane Wommack left after taking South Alabama bowling the last two years.
South Alabama Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-160) Under 6.5 (+125)
63. Baylor Bears / P4/ Big 12
Dequan Finn is expected to start at QB, but offensive coordinator Jake Spatival knows he's got a couple bangers in the backfield in Dominic Richardson and Richard Reese. Reese, who was a freshman All-American, needs touches. So does former Ole Miss and USC tight end Michael Trigg, who is 6-4, 245 pounds. So does Monaray Baldwin, who has 127 catches for 1,188 yards in two years.
I'm betting on Dave Aranda, AKA The Philosopher, AKA Aristotle Aranda, and defensive coordinator Matt Powledge to field a defense that will keep the offense in striking distance of winning at the end.
Baylor Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-120)
64. Georgia Southern Eagles / G5 / SBC
Here at the Church of Clay Helton, we proselytize the gospel of Going Bowling, and Helton does. Yes, his last two seasons are losing ones, but each is also 6-7, shorthand for bowl-eligible. Mind your APR score and your booster base, who thinks you should be doing more with what you've got — see Drake London, Jaxson Dart, Michael Pittman, all who played for Helton at USC — and you're likely to play postseason football for the sixth time in seven years. Just get to Week 4 at Ole Miss 3-0.
Georgia Southern Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+115) Under 5.5 (-145)
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves / G5 / SBC
It ain't just that Butch Jones won three of his first 24 games against FBS opponents at A-State. It's that the Red Wolves got shellacked by a combined score of 110-3 to Memphis and Oklahoma — their first two games of the year — last season. Something had to give, and it did. Jones and the pride of Jonesboro whopped Texas State 77-31 in Week 11 to become bowl-eligible.
Arkansas State Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-165) Under 5.5 (+130)
66. Tulane Green Wave / G5 / AAC
Jon Sumrall moved over from Troy to inherit a program that has won 23 games over the past two seasons, including a Cotton Bowl victory against USC and its Heisman winner. After securing former Oregon QB Ty Thompson, former OU and USC wideout Mario Williams, and former Alabama and LSU wideouts Shazz Preston and Khai Prean, Sumrall won't lack talent on the offensive side of the ball. But the offense should run through sophomore tailback Makhi Hughes, who rushed for 1,378 yards on 258 carries with seven TDs in 2023.
Tulane Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-145) Under 7.5 (+115)
67. Jacksonville State Gamecocks / G5 / C-USA
Rich Rodriguez led the Gamecocks into their first season of FBS last year, and it was such a banger that Venables snatched Rodriguez's 2023 defensive coordinator to call defense for the Sooners in 2024. While Luke Olson will try to do his part as the new DC, my eyes are on former Furman QB Tyler Huff, who led the Paladins to the FCS semis last year with over 1,800 passing yards and 500 rushing yards. Given how tough C-USA was at the top, there's reason to believe Jacksonville State might be the last team listed here who could earn a spot in the CFP.
Jacksonville State Win Total Odds: Over 8 (-105) Under 8 (-125)
68. California Golden Bears / P4 / ACC
It's weird for Cal to be an ACC team. It's weird for Cal to play a schedule that starts with UC Davis in Week 1, travel to Auburn and Florida State in September, up to Pittsburgh in October and 2,729 miles across the country to Wake Forest in November — a 40-hour drive across the country on Interstate 40. But that's what the Golden Bears are gonna do in 2024.
Justin Wilcox will need his defense to travel — understatement of the year — and Jaydn Ott to be the kind of tailback he was last season. Ott rushed for 1,305 yards at 5.3 yards per carry. Cal might have one of the roughest transition years of any team in a new league this season.
California Win Total Odds: Over 6 (-105) Under 6 (-115)
69. UNLV Rebels / G5 / MWC
Give Barry Odom, a defensive coach by trade, credit for hiring one of the best young coordinators in football at any level in Brennan Marion. Before Marion, UNLV went 5-7. After Marion, UNLV finished 9-5. Losing last year's starter at QB, Jayden Maiva, to USC hurts, but Odom snatched Matt Sluka from Holy Cross and Hajj-Malik Williams from Campbell, handed both to Marion and said, "Make me a winner."
Sluka was a four-year starter and an FCS All-American in 2023, a year where he passed for 1,728 yards and rushed for 1,247 with 29 total TDs and just five picks. Williams passed for 2,604 yards with 24 TDs and nine picks for the Fighting Camels. Either way, they're tossing the ball to Ricky White III, who recorded 88 catches for 1,483 yards and eight TDs last season.
The backend of Odom's defense will feature a couple of eye-catchers in Tony Grimes, a corner who was seen as so good that Mack Brown let him reclassify to join UNC before his senior season, and Jalen Catalon, who Odom made into a star at Arkansas before Catalon trotted off to Texas. Catalon can help UNLV get to 10 wins for the first time since 1984 when they went 11-2 in the Pacific Coast Athletic Association behind the arm of Randall Cunningham.
UNLV Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (+125) Under 7.5 (-160)
70. South Florida Bulls / G5 / AAC
While most people stopped looking at USF after their close loss to Alabama last year, Byrum Brown finished with 3,292 passing yards and 809 rushing yards. Brown is a Michelin Star chef in the backfield. Let him cook. And teach him to throw it deep. Past 15 yards, he just hasn't shown himself to be accurate.
The problem for Alex Golesh will be his defense, which ranked outside the top 100 in 2023. This can be the same team that gave Alabama a hard time and the one that stomped out Syracuse 45-0 in the Boca Raton Bowl.
South Florida Win Total Odds: Over 7 (-120) Under 7 (-110)
71. Marshall Thundering Herd / G5 / AAC
Charles Huff brought back Seth Doege to run an offense that will feature either Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis or Tulsa transfer Braylon Braxton. One of them gets to throw the ball to DeMarcus Harris, who averaged 16.5 yards per catch but hasn't caught more than 24 balls in a season.
Marshall's Win Total Odds: Over 6 (+105) Under 6 (-135)
72. Minnesota Golden Gophers / P4 / Big Ten
Since its banner 11-win season in 2019, P.J. Fleck's rowboat has faced little chop. There was that 3-4 season in the COVID year, but he followed that with consecutive nine-win seasons before turning in last year's 6-7 record — his worst since his first year on the job in 2017 (5-7). It's gonna be tough to turn nine wins out of a schedule that not only features Michigan, Iowa, USC and Penn State, but five conference games on the road.
If graduate transfer QB Max Brosmer ends up being the kind of impact portal addition I think he's going to be, nine wins is within reach. At New Hampshire last season, Brosmer threw for 3,459 yards with 29 TDs and was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award. He threw for 300 or more yards in six games last year, including 493 with four TDs against Central Michigan.
Minnesota Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-160) Under 5 (+135)
73. Old Dominion Monarchs / G5 / SBC
Ricky Rahne brings back QB Grant Wilson and a talented receiver in Kelby Williams, who caught 26 passes for an average of 17.4 yards per catch. He also brought in two former P4 RBs in Aaron Young and Bryce Duke, who perhaps help them win those one-score games they lost (five). Then there's All-Slept-On LB Jason Henderson, who had 170 tackles, including 19.5 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks last season and 186 tackles, 10 for loss and a sack in 2022.
Old Dominion Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-110) Under 4.5 (-120)
74. UCLA Bruins / P4 / Big Ten
DeShaun Foster followed his hiring with one hell of a hire for himself in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who not only helped develop Patrick Mahomes into the NFL's best QB on the NFL's best team, but won a national title as a star tailback at Colorado.
UCLA Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-105) Under 5 (-115)
75. Northwestern Wildcats / P4 / Big Ten
David Braun had never been a head coach when the title was foisted upon him last July. He met the challenge by finishing 8-5 to the mighty surprise of everyone who watched the 2022 Wildcats go 1-11.
Cold water on a good story is recognizing Northwestern plays the third-toughest schedule in the country behind Florida and USC, according to their 2023 opponents' combined record. The teams on Northwestern's schedule this season combined to go 104-53 in 2023.
Northwestern Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-135) Under 4.5 (+115)
76. Houston Cougars / P4 / Big 12
Willie Fritz is a winner. He flipped Tulane into a 23-4 program over the last two years. Now he's tasked with doing the same in a Power 4 league that's wide open with what feels like 12 teams who could make the title game in December.
Houston Win Total Odds: Over 3.5 (-160) Under 3.5 (+135)
77. Miami (OH) Redhawks / G5 / MAC
Chuck Martin put together a ball club greater than the sum of its parts, moving a 2018 offensive assistant to the team's defensive coordinator in 2022, all but refusing to go for it on fourth down and relying on a turnover-making, score-stopping defense. The Redhawks ain't sexy, but they work, and that's enough to win a second championship.
Miami of Ohio Win Total Odds: Over 8 (+100) Under 8 (-130)
78. Mississippi State Bulldogs / P4 / SEC
Jeff Lebby doesn't draw up plays to pick up first downs. He draws up plays to score touchdowns — on every down. In five years, Lebby has called the offense at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, and his teams have scored 50 or more 14 times. He tends to like a gunslinger in the pocket. With former Baylor QB Blake Shapen, he's got yet another. When Shapen's sharp, he's lethal. Three years ago, he burst onto the Big 12 title game stage to complete 17 consecutive passes en route to the Big 12 title. But he's never been asked to sling the ball like he'll be asked by Lebby.
Mississippi State Win Total Odds: Over 4 (-150) Under 4 (+130)
79. Oregon State Beavers / Pac-12
Trent Bray was named head coach following Jonathan Smith's departure to Michigan State. The Beavers were 20-9 during Brey's time as the program's defensive coordinator, and their calling card has been cloaking opponents in the ominous darkness on the edge of the Pacific Northwest. However, there will need to be a robust rebuild. Nine starters from the 2023 team have transferred, including arguably the Beavers' best players in Damien Martinez (Miami) and DJ Uiagalelei (FSU). It doesn't quite seem fair that OSU has to work this hard in 2024 after finishing the 2022 season with their highest ranking in 22 years. But that is the sport in this extended CFP era.
Oregon State Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (+105) Under 7.5 (-125)
80. Toledo Rockets / G5 / MAC
Jason Candle is a coach who has been in the mix for a big-time job since he called plays for Matt Campbell as an OC at Toledo. This year, he'll need to put together an offense that won't be nearly as experienced as it was last year and a defense that ought to compete with Miami (OH) as the best unit in the league. And since it's Vince Kehres – who came over after winning national titles at Mount Union – calling the defense, Toledo is on solid ground.
Toledo Win Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+115) Under 8.5 (-145)
81. Syracuse Orange / P4 / ACC
Fran Brown came through at his introductory press conference like a man raised on Donovan McNabb, Ernie Davis, Jim Brown and the glory of Orangemen, because he was. A year removed from coaching the DB room at UGA that won a national title, he sat at the lectern and laid out who he is and what he is about. Since that time, he went hunting in the portal and pulled out Ohio State starter Kyle McCord.
Syracuse Win Total Odds: Over 7 (-120) Under 7 (+100)
82. Michigan State Spartans / P4 / Big Ten
Jonathan Smith finished 34-35 at his alma mater, but he won 18 of his last 25 games at Oregon State and the Beavers were a steady feature in the top 25 for most of 2023.
If Michigan State could guarantee bowl-eligibility in Year 1 under Smith, Spartan fans would take it after a year to forget both on and off the field. Between the talented Aidan Chiles at quarterback and a proven winner in the Big Ten in defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, the foundation is set for Smith to rebuild the program and perhaps get off to a 4-0 start before facing Ohio State in Week 5.
Michigan State Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-105) Under 5 (-115)
83. Washington Huskies / P4 / Big Ten
Jeff Fisch took over at Washington after Kalen DeBoer made like a duck in the winter and flew South. When Fisch left Arizona and stepped foot on Montlake, he saw the cupboard not just empty, but fighting what felt like an oncoming famine. They've got two returning starters at UW off that Pac-12 title team, and neither is named "Penix" or "Rome," though Fisch was able to hold onto 22 scholarship players.
He added Mississippi State transfer QB Will Rogers, who holds career records in Starkville for passing yards, completions and TDs, having played in the late Mike Leach's air raid system for most of his career. In 2021, he threw for more than 4,700 yards with 36 TDs and nine INTs. He can sling it, but he's gonna need help.
Fisch hired Steve Belichick to coordinate the defense and brought Brennan Carroll over from Tucson to run the offense while inviting their famous fathers, Bill and Pete, respectively, to come by to put the fragrance of the NFL over the program like a lemony Lysol a teenager hoses his favorite shirt down with.
Washington Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (+100)
84. Wyoming Cowboys / G5 / MWC
After helping Craig Bohl finish his final season as head coach with a 9-4 record, including a double-OT win against Texas Tech, Jay Sawvel took the step up from defensive coordinator to head ball coach. Nine players return to his defense, including EDGE Sabastian Harsh, who notched three sacks and 10 tackles for loss in 2023.
With both tailbacks — Dawaiian McNeely and Harrison Waylee — averaging better than 5.7 yards per rush and joining Evan Svoboda in the backfield, the Cowboys stand a shot at bulldogging the Mountain West.
Wyoming Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+100) Under 6.5 (-130)
85. Boston College Eagles / P4 / ACC
When Jeff Hafley cried uncle and left a head-coaching gig in the Power 4 to be an assistant with the Green Bay Packers, I did not expect Bill O'Brien to leave what is one of the best assistant jobs in the sport at Ohio State to become head coach at BC. But by now, we should know that some guys want to be head coaches.
BC's strength of schedule, according to its 2023 opponents' winning percentage, ranks inside the top 25. And that's with Duquesne figured in. But with Thomas Castellanos Jr. at QB and Treshaun Ward at RB, alongside true freshman and first-team All-Namer Turbo Richard, O'Brien should have a backfield capable of running the ball.
Boston College Win Total Odds: Over 5 (+110) Under 5 (-130)
86. Wake Forest Demon Deacons / P4 / ACC
The Demon Deacons return 15 starters from their 4-8 team and added Hank Bachmeier, who started at Boise State and Louisiana Tech before transferring to Wake, where he hopes to have the kind of success Sam Hartman had. When Dave Clawson has had an experienced and talented QB, he's achieved great heights. But without a running back with more than 600 rushing yards or a wideout with more than 700 receiving yards returning, playmakers will have to reveal themselves almost immediately with four of their first six games against Virginia, Ole Miss, NC State and Clemson.
Wake Forest Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-160) Under 4.5 (+135)
87. Illinois Fighting Illini / P4 / Big Ten
The Illini haven't enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons since the Big Ten featured 12 teams in 2010 and 2011. They've only won eight or more games once since 2007, while 11 of their last 12 seasons have been losing ones.
Bret Bielema's brand of complimentary football works at Michigan and Iowa in this era of football. And 2022 is indicative of that — when his defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, fielded one of the nation's best units. But that looks more like an aberration than the standard in Champagne.
Illinois Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-120)
88. Purdue Boilermakers / P4 / Big Ten
Purdue has more wins against AP No. 1 and No. 2-ranked teams as an unranked opponent than any other program among the 134-member FBS. Purdue has also not won 10 games in a season since 1979.
Walters hopes Year 2 of Graham Harrell and Hudson Card might double his win total from a year ago. But with games against Notre Dame, at Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State, winning six games would be cause for celebration in West Lafayette.
Defensively, Dillon Thieneman was the second-best true freshman safety in the country last season. Caleb Downs had 107 tackles at Alabama. Thieneman had 106, six INTs and two forced fumbles at Purdue.
Purdue Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+135) Under 4.5 (-160)
89. Virginia Cavaliers / P4 / ACC
In Year 3 of the Tony Elliott era, you'd be right to expect the Cavaliers to begin looking like a winner, but with the 11th toughest schedule in the country according to opponent winning percentage, that's a tough ask. Their only gimme on the schedule is a Week 1 opener against a Richmond team that went 9-4 last year. Their only other out-of-conference games are against Maryland and at Coastal Carolina. Tony Muskett returns to play QB, and he'll have Kobe Pace in the backfield and Chris Tyree out in routes, but this season is going to test Virginia fans' patience.
Virginia Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+100) Under 4.5 (-120)
90. Air Force Falcons / G5 / MWC
The Falcons have won at least nine games in four of the last five years. Then Troy Calhoun's base got raided. All four leading rushers, including QB Zac Larrier, all eight offensive linemen at the top of the depth chart, and nine of the most experienced defenders on the 2023 team, are now gone.
Perspective: The program that produced the first Jim Thorpe Award winner at a service academy – Trey Taylor – barely cracks the top 100. He was selected in the seventh round of April's NFL Draft. He notched 74 tackles and three INTs last season.
Air Force Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-140) Under 6.5 (+110)
91. Pittsburgh Panthers / P4 / ACC
After posting 20 wins in 2021 and 2022 combined, the wheels came off the Panthers' Plymouth Prowler with a 3-9 2023 season — their most losses in a season since 1998. Pat Narduzzi went to Western Carolina to get Kade Bell to run his offense and light up the scoreboard. At the FCS level, Bell fielded a 2023 offense that put up 321.1 passing yards, 504.1 total yards and 37.5 points a game. In 52 games as an OC, Bell's offenses have put up 500 yards or more 31 times.
Bell brought 897-yard rusher Desmond Reid Jr. with him from Western Carolina. Former Alabama QB Eli Holstein figures to be competing for the starting job and could be the ACC's breakout player of the year if he simply runs Bell's offense. Expect the Panthers to move the ball in 2024.
Pittsburgh Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-120)
92. Georgia State Panthers / P4 / SBC
In Dell McGee, GSU has one of the best recruiters of the past 10 years. But he did that at Georgia, where the resources were considerable. And Georgia State is in a league where most games are a fistfight. He needs to find out who his QB will be — Zach Gibson from Georgia Tech or Christian Veilleux from Pitt — and hope the other transfers he's brought in can help him right away.
Georgia State Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+115) Under 4.5 (-145)
93. Washington State Cougars / Pac-12
Jake Dickert returns just nine starters from that 2023 team and lost the best quarterback he's had since taking over as head coach the same way he landed him — through the transfer portal. After momentarily electing to enter the NFL Draft, former Cougar QB Cam Ward opted to transfer to Miami after throwing for the eighth-most passing yards (3,736) of any FBS QB. Replacing his production won't be easy. But there's reason enough to believe some of the FCS talent Dickert brought in can do that collectively. That will start with former Bryant Bulldog Zevi Eckhaus, who totaled 3,260 yards and 33 TDs last year.
Washington State Win Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (+100)
94. Bowling Green Falcons / G5 / MAC
Former Missouri and Indiana starter Connor Bazelak is back at quarterback and corner Jordan Oladokun is a dude (four INTs in 2023). If Bazelak can turn his connection with tight end Harold Fannin Jr. into one that feels more like fiber optics rather than shoddy WiFi, Scotty Loeffler might force us to say something nice. Fannin is Brock Bowers at the G5 level with 44 catches for 624 yards and six TDs. Feed the matchup monster. Feed The Fannin.
Bowling Green Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+105) Under 6.5 (-135)
95. Northern Illinois Huskies / G5 / MAC
Like Iowa, NIU will throw the ball. On third-and-long. To a tight end. In the flat. But that's about the extent of Thomas Hammock's aerial attack. Expect Antario Brown, who rushed for 1,296 yards on 212 rushes, and Gavin Williams, who averaged 5.1 yards per rush on 95 carries in 2023, to be the offense Hammock runs NIU through.
Northern Illinois Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-125) Under 6.5 (-105)
96. Colorado State Rams / G5 / MWC
It's been seven years since the Rams enjoyed a winning season — Mike Bobo's 7-6 year in 2017. This is the program that has recently produced Mackey Award winner Trey McBride, as well as Shaq Barrett, Michael Gallup and Rashard Higgins. The Rams had a 3,460-yard passer in Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and a first-team All-He-Down-There-Somewhere receiver in Tory Horton (96 catches, 1,136 yards, eight TDs), and still can't break even.
Jay Norvell enters Year 3 with an 8-16 record. He has an EDGE in Nuer Gatkuoth, who had 11.5 tackles for loss last season, and a safety in Henry Blackburn, who had three INTS, seven tackles for loss and a "Yes, It Was Dirty Hit" on Travis Hunter last year. Something's gotta give.
Colorado State Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-140) Under 5.5 (+120)
97. Indiana Hoosiers / P4 / Big Ten
At his introductory presser at IU, Curt Cignetti gave his recruiting pitch: "It's pretty simple — I win. Google me." He's right. He did win. He won 52 games in five years. At James Madison. You're in the big-time now though, Curt. The Big Ten ain't about what you've done. It's about what you ain't done yet — just ask Ryan Day.
Indiana Hoosiers Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-110) Under 5.5 (-110)
98 Stanford Cardinal / P4 / ACC
I understand there are other parts of Stanford football that are not Elic Ayomanor, but they need to be bookended by his first and last name. That dude went for 294 receiving yards on 13 catches with three TDs against Colorado — nearly a third of his 1,093 yards and nearly a fifth of his 62 catches in 2024.
No one knows his value like coach Troy Taylor, who left Cal as its all-time passing leader. And he's got a quarterback who is more than capable of churning out yardage in Ashton Daniels, who put up 448 yards against national title runner-up Washington last season. However, with games against Texas Christian, at Clemson, against Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, against SMU and at N.C. State, they might be favored in just three games all season.
Stanford Win Total Odds: Over 3.5 (-160) Under 3.5 (+135)
99. Vanderbilt Commodores / P4 / SEC
With Clark Lea as head coach, the Commodores haven't won more than five games in a season in three years and have two seasons where they lost at least 10. Now, none of that is as bad as Derek Mason's 0-9 season in 2020, but it's a far cry from the 38th Miracle that is James Franklin's back-to-back 9-4 seasons in 2012 and 2013.
The challenge facing Vandy won't get any easier this year, as the Commodores will face the fifth-toughest schedule in the entire country — Vandy opponents went 97-57 last year — in 2024.
Vanderbilt Commodores Win Total Odds: Over 3 (-125) Under 3 (+105)
100. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders / G5 / C-USA
Derek Mason will take the field as a head coach for the first time since he led Vanderbilt from 2014-2020. He's got a star in 6-4 Holden Willis, who does most of his work in the slot. Willis averaged 15.2 yards per catch and made 46 of them in 2023.
Middle Tennessee State Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-115) Under 5 (-115)
101. Army Black Knights / G5 / AAC
The Flexbone? That's so 2022. At Westpoint, they make like the calvary now and yeehaw out of shotgun. Kanye Udoh averaged 5.3 yards per rush and the defense does what it can to keep the score low, allowing just 21.1 points per game last season. They ain't exactly the Falcons, but you'll always feel the Black Knights in a close ball game.
Army Win Total Odds: Over 6 (-105) Under 6 (+135)
102. UAB Blazers / G5 / AAC
Jacob Zeno had a hard time throwing downfield last year, but the return of Amare Thomas and Bryce Damous should help. Zeno has yet to show the form he did five years ago in the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma when he subbed as a true freshman and completed explosive passes of 78 and 81 yards. I'm intrigued to find out if Isaiah Jacobs, Josh Jacobs' younger brother and former Maryland Terrapin, can add a much-needed jolt to the ground attack alongside bellcow back Jermaine Brown Jr.
UAB Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+110) Under 6.5 (-140)
103. San Diego State Aztecs / G5 / MWC
At 37, Sean Lewis is already beginning his second stint as a head coach after a raucous year in Boulder calling plays for most of the season. Florida State transfer AJ Duffy running Lewis' veer-n-shoot ought to lead to scoring. Hiring former DeBoer assistant Eric Schmidt to coach the defense was shrewd. The Aztecs ought to look to go bowling.
San Diego State Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+105) Under 5.5 (-135)
104. Utah State Aggies / G5 / MWC
Utah State brought in QBs Spencer Petras from Iowa and Bryson Barnes from Utah. Whether it's one of them, or former Arizona State QB Jacob Conover or Boise State QB CJ Tiller, someone is gonna hand the ball to Rahsul Faison, who averaged 6.2 yards per rush last season. As mediocre as Utah State has been recently — back to back 6-7 seasons — they've put together more 11-win seasons since 2018 than USC, UCLA and Utah. But with Blake Anderson being relieved of his duties earlier this summer, the Aggies' future is anything but secure.
Utah State Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-125) Under 5 (-105)
105. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors / G5 / MWC
Yes, QB Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards with 26 TDs last year. Yes, he gets all six of his top receivers back this year. But Timmy Chang is 8-18 entering Year 3, and the Rainbow Warriors gave up an average of 41.4 points per game in games they lost in 2023. There's a three-game stretch in there where Schager passed for at least 313 yards per game and the Rainbow Warriors gave up 41 or more to UNLV, SDSU and New Mexico. Run the ball, Timmy. Give your defense a chance to take a breath.
Hawaii Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+100)
106. Southern Miss Golden Eagles / G5 / SBC
Last year, Golden Eagles coach Will Hall had Frank Gore Jr. This year, he's replacing nine starters and going to trust the offense to former Florida State starter Tate Rodemaker, who struggled against SEC competition (12-of-25 for 134 yards against Florida), but was respectable against FCS competition (13-of-23 for 217 yards with two TDs in relief of Jordan Travis against North Alabama).
Southern Miss Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+130) Under 4.5 (-105)
107. Connecticut Huskies / G5 / Ind
While Sione Vaki was turning heads as a safety turned running back at Utah, Cam Edwards did the same with a move from safety to tailback. Edwards had 149 rushing yards against South Florida and 102 against Massachusetts, leading the team with 618 total yards on the ground. The schedule is Charmin Ultra Soft with P4 opponents Maryland, Duke, Wake Forest and Syracuse.
Connecticut Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-130) Under 4.5 (+100)
108. Navy Midshipmen / G5 / AAC
The Midshipmen scoring offense was awful last year — 125th — nine spots ahead of dead last and still seven spots ahead of Iowa (131 out of 133). Brian Newberry hired former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic to run the offense after he led the Bears to an FCS playoff appearance for the first time in school history. Defensively, Justin Reed is a playmaker and the team responds to his playmaking. When he recorded at least two tackles for loss, forced a fumble or a pass breakup, Navy was 3-0. The Midshipmen also allowed just 10 points per game in those wins.
Navy Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+115) Under 5.5 (-145)
109. Sam Houston State Bearkats / G5 / C-USA
Life in the FBS ain't going as well as many Bearkats might've thought. Their first season in C-USA resulted in eight straight losses to start the season for what had become a reliable FCS playoff fixture. Get to six wins in 2024 and then throw a party.
Sam Houston State Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+100)
110. San Jose State Spartans / G5 / MWC
Ken Niumatalolo is about to get medieval. Gone is the option attack that held Navy back, as Niumatalolo hired Craig Stutzmann, who is now authorized to let it rip out of the run-n-shoot. And he's gonna do it with brand-spanking new personnel at the most important position, as former Oregon signee Jay Butterfield will be airing it out to Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart, who could be 1,000-yard receivers by year's end.
San Jose State Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+120) Under4. 5 (-150)
111. Rice Owls / G5 / AAC
The Owls ought to bulldoze teams with an offensive line room that has eight players standing 6-6 and weighing 315 pounds on the roster. They lost QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey, but they return tailback Dean Connors, who accounted for 1,174 yards from scrimmage with 10 TDs in 2023. Former Temple QB E.J. Warner has shown he's more than capable of being a complete passer, averaging 3,000 yards and 20 pass TDs over the last two years.
Rice Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-150) Under 6.5 (+120)
112. Massachusetts Minutemen / G5 / Ind
In stint No. 1, Don Brown went 43-19 as head coach of the Minute Men. However, since moving to FBS, UMass has amassed a 24-112 record. And this year they've got both Missouri and Georgia on the schedule.
Massachusetts Win Total Odds: Over 3.5 (-130) Under 5.5 (+100)
113. Western Michigan Broncos / G5 / MAC
Lance Taylor is in Year 2. He's already on his fourth coordinator. That kind of change can't help continuity, and it's likely to get you beat if players don't pick up the new scheme in a hurry. The Broncos bring back their leading passer, Hayden Wolff, but that ain't saying much as he only threw for 1,505 yards. The run game could be promising with leading rusher Jalen Buckley returning. He rushed for 1,005 yards with 10 TDs at 5.3 yards per clip last season.
Western Michigan Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (-115) Under 6.5 (115)
114. East Carolina Pirates / G5 / AAC
Defensive tackles D'Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens return after combining for 19 tackles for loss last season. At quarterback, it's "let the best man win" with Michigan State transfer Katin Houser, Georgia State transfer Bryson Harrison and Missouri transfer Jake Garcia battling for the Week 1 start.
East Carolina Win Total Odds: Over 6 (-135) Under 6 (+105)
115. Nevada Wolf Pack / G5 / MWC
Jeff Coates coached a team to the playoffs in the lower divisions (FCS, Montana State, 2019) and at the FBS level. He got Chubba Purdy out of the portal to compete for the starting QB job as he will try to build Nevada into the kind of program that can win more than it loses.
Nevada Win Total Odds: Over 2.5 (-120) Under 2.5 (-110)
116. North Texas Mean Green / G5 / AAC
Eric Morris is tasked with bringing UNT back to new heights. With former OU and TCU QB Chandler Morris throwing passes to Blair Conwright and Landon Sides, and the return of RB Ikaika Ragsdale — 890 scrimmage yards in 2023 — Morris has enough on offense to compete. Defensively? Totally different story. UNT ranked 131st out of 133 teams in 2023.
North Texas Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-145) Under 5.5 (+115)
117. Ohio Bobcats / G5 / MAC
Two years ago, the Bobcats won the MAC East title. Two years later, 21 players from that team are gone, including eight to the Big Ten, five to the Big 12 and two to the ACC.
Tim Albin, like most good G5 coaches, goes straight into rebuilding, knowing his roster will be pillaged by moneyed programs. He can pillage the division below him, as he's added 17 FCS transfers to a team that won 10 games last year, including their last four in a row.
Ohio Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+115) Under 6.5 (-145)
118. New Mexico Lobos / G5 / MWC
Bronco Mendenhall is a first-year coach at New Mexico, but this ain't his first rodeo. And it's gonna take every bit of his 17 years of building winners at BYU and Virginia to turn the Lobos into anything capable of showing up to win a buckle. The Lobos haven't won more than four games in a season since 2016. Saddle up, get the clown to pull that gate, toes down, heels up and yeehaw, Bronco.
New Mexico Win Total Odds: Over 2 (-120) Under 2 (-110)
119. Tulsa Golden Hurricane / G5 / AAC
In Year 2, Kevin Wilson needs to field a bowl-eligible team. Anthony Watkins should get the bulk of the carries in the backfield. Kirk Francis and Cooper Legas ought to be capable of leading the team at QB if Cardell Williams begins taking too many sacks. But it better be Francis, who completed 22 of 34 passes for 345 pass yards and a TD against No. 20 Tulane in 2023. Kamdyn Benjamin ought to take the leap. As a walk-on, he caught 22 passes for 393 yards with four TDs.
This program, which has more Pro Football Hall of Famers (4) than Florida (2), Texas A&M (1), Clemson (1), Auburn (3) and Tennessee (3) needs to act like it.
Tulsa Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-130) Under 4.5 (+100)
120. Buffalo Bulls / G5 / MAC
Just when Pete Lembo might have thought he left the MAC for good, they pulled him back in to be head coach at Buffalo following Mo Linguist's departure to Alabama. The cupboard isn't completely empty with linebacker Shaun Dolac returning after a short stint in Logan, Utah. He recorded 13 tackles for loss, including 4.5 sacks in 2023. Alongside Red Murdock, who accounted for nine tackles for loss and three forced fumbles after starting the last six games of the season, the defense might become a calling card with former RedHawks LB coach Joe Bowen coordinating.
Buffalo Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (+125) Under 5.5 (-160)
121. Central Michigan Chippewas / G5: / MAC:
After going 20-13 in his first three years — including a nine-win season — Jim McElwain has gone 9-15 in his last two. But where there's Marion Lukes, there's a way. He has played 33 games, gained 2,698 all-purpose yards, scored 11 TDs, returned two kicks for TDs and caught one. If Bert Emanuel Jr. can stay healthy alongside Lukes, the Chippewas might make most games a fistfight.
Central Michigan Win Total Odds: Over 5.5 (-140) Under 5.5 (+110)
122. New Mexico State Aggies / G5 / C-USA
Tony Sanchez has one of the most difficult acts to follow in the sport this year. After leading the Aggies to a 10-5 record with an appearance in the C-USA title game, former head coach Jerry Kill retired and the roster was immediately raided. The Aggies might have a hard time winning seven games let alone matching their 7-2 record in conference play last year.
New Mexico State Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+115) Under 4.5 (-135)
123. Florida Atlantic Owls / G5 / AAC
If the Kiffin years feel like long ago, that's because they are — five in fact. From 2017 to 2019, the Owls enjoyed two 11-win seasons and two Conference USA titles. Then they got invited to move up to the American Conference, and Year 2 of the Tom Herman era yielded a 4-8 record. Herman will have to find a way to win without a proven tailback, no wide receiver who recorded more than 500 receiving yards last year, and one returning offensive lineman. Wide receiver LaJohntay Wester, who was the Owls' best player, transferred to Colorado. A 6-6 year would be a great season for FAU.
Florida Atlantic Win Total Odds: Over 6.5 (+100) Under 6.5 (-130)
124. Florida International Panthers / G5 / C-USA
FIU coach Mike MacIntyre has made it work at San Jose State and won national coach of the year at Colorado. At FIU, he is 8-16, but this could be the year the Golden Panthers win more games than they lose if the roster develops as I think it might: Jamal Potts, Hezekiah Masses and Brian Blades II help make up what could be the most formidable secondary in C-USA. If Keyone Jenkins and Dean Patterson can spark a QB-WR connection, there's hope for bowl-eligibility at the other school in Miami.
Florida International Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (+120) Under 4.5 (-150)
125. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs / G5 / C-USA
When Louisiana Tech fired Skip Holtz in 2021, I doubt anyone in Ruston, Louisiana, thought their next hire, Sonny Cumbie, would go 6-18 over the next two years while Holtz rattled off a 32-4 record with three pro football titles in three years as head coach of the UFL's Birmingham Stallions. It's looking dire for Cumbie, who will have to break in another new starter at QB while hoping star RB Marquis Crosby can be the back he was in 2022.
Louisiana Tech Win Total Odds: Over 5 (-115) Under 5 (-115)
126. UTEP Miners / G5 / C-USA
Head coach Scotty Walden, who was at FCS Austin Peay last year, has taken 10 former APSU offensive players and made them Miners. Chief among them is RB Jevon Jackson, who rushed for over 1,400 yards last year. Defensively, Maurice Westmoreland accounted for 11.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks last season.
UTEP Win Total Odds: Over 4 (-120) Under 4 (-110)
127. Ball State Cardinals / G5 / MAC
The Cardinals gave up 40 or more points in their first five games of 2023 and managed to score 14 or more just twice during that stretch. QB Kiael Kelly hit the portal, only to return to a team that lost its top three tailbacks. But even if the offense figures out how to score, Ball State coach Mike Andy brought in just four transfers to help.
Ball State Win Total Odds: Over 4 (-115) Under 4 (-115)
128. Charlotte 49ers / G5 / AAC
Biff Poggi has certainly cleaned up the roster's image with former Florida QB Max Brown, former Iowa State running back Cartevious Norton and Khafre Brown. Max Brown nearly led an upset of Cotton Bowl champ Missouri last year. Norton has great potential to be a 1,00-yard back and Khafre Brown averaged more than 16 yards per catch at USF last year.
Charlotte Win Total Odds: Over 3.5 (-125) Under 3.5 (-105)
129. Eastern Michigan Eagles / G5 / MAC
Nine starters return to the pride of Ypsilanti, Michigan. But Chris Creighton knows how to make a good team. The Eagles went 6-7 in 2023 but have made six bowl games in eight years. He's got former Power 4 players in the backfield in QB Cole Snyder (Colorado), RB Delbert Mimms III (North Carolina State) and former Florida tight end Jonathan Odom. EMU averaged just 19.5 points per game last year — 120th in the country in scoring offense. But good things are expected for the future at the newly-renamed Crosby Field, named for EMU alumni Maxx and Rachel Crosby, who donated $1 million to the athletic department in 2023.
Eastern Michigan Win Total Odds: Over 4.5 (-135) Under 4.5 (+105)
130. Temple Owls / G5 / AAC
Stan Drayton is entering Year 3 after going 6-18 in his first two seasons at a program that has been reliably bowl-eligible for a decade. Losing All-AAC offensive tackle Victor Stoffel to Cal hurt. But losing E.J. Warner, his best player, to a conference rival hurt more. Drayton is looking for Rutgers transfer Evan Simon, junior Forrest Brock or redshirt freshman Tyler Douglas to be his starter at QB. He has also brought in a whopping 20 JUCO transfers, including 13 on defense.
Temple Win Total Odds: Over 2.5 (-120) Under 2.5 (-110)
131. Kent State Golden Flashes / G5 / MAC
After Sean Lewis left for Colorado, former Minnesota RB coach Kenni Burns accepted the head man job at Kent State, only to go 1-11. But Chrishon McCray might be a dude. He caught 41 passes for 610 yards with four TDs as a freshman.
Kent State Win Total Odds: Over 2.5 (-145) Under 2.5 (+115)
132. Akron Zips / G5 / MAC
Joe Moorhead made the run-pass option a thing, it just hasn't worked at Akron. In fairness, not a lot has for the Zips historically. Moorehead has won four games in two years. The Zips have enjoyed one winning season in the CFP era and went 0-12 in 2019. Still, there's a star in Akron, and his name is C.J. Nunally IV. He accounted for 13 tackles for loss with seven sacks last season.
Akron Win Total Odds: Over 3.5 (+100) Under 3.5 (-125)
133. Kennesaw State Owls / G5 / C-USA
The Owls were great — two years ago. After fielding a team for the first time in 2015, they won 11 games four times in five years. Then they went 5-6 in 2022 and 3-6 in 2023. Now they'll play their first season of FBS ball in the conference that gave us last year's G5 New Year's Six Bowl team. In Year 1, just try to be better than UMass.
Kennesaw State Win Total Odds: Over 2.5 (+100) Under 2.5 (-120)
134. Louisiana-Monroe / G5 / SBC
Well, this is the bottom of the well, Bryant Vincent. You've inherited a program that didn't just go 2-10 last season, but went winless in the Sun Belt. You brought in former Oklahoma QB, Louisiana native and All-Name First-Teamer General Booty. And then you went old school, bringing in 27 junior college players, two thirds of whom play defense. That's what I'm talking about.
Louisiana-Monroe Win Total Odds: Over 1.5 (-185) Under 1.5 (+150)
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.
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