Red wave? The media grapple with an undecided battle for control of Congress

After a confusing night of contradictory election information, the battle for control of Congress wasn’t settled when the sun came up.

Everyone in the media was bracing for the red wave that was going to carry Republicans to victory, but it turned out to be a slow tide. It’s still possible that the GOP will wind up controlling both houses of Congress, but only narrowly.

The upset of the night had to be John Fetterman beating Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, despite his disastrous debate, as Democratic voters decided to rally behind the recovering stroke victim. That flip of a Senate seat balanced J.D. Vance beating Tim Ryan in Ohio, leaving control of the chamber undecided.

A Republican takeover of the House remains very likely, but Kevin McCarthy may not have the 30-seat margin that many had predicted, raising questions about the polling and the punditry. It’s clear that having finally accepted the notion of a Democratic drubbing in the final weeks of the campaign, the media may have missed a more competitive election than everyone expected. 

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What follows is a timeline of one crazy night of cable news coverage.

It was a whole lot of "too early to call" in the early hours. That’s hardly surprising, especially in the key Senate races, where the Real Clear Politics average had most of them within one percentage point or sometimes as tight as 0.4 percent.

But the blizzard of raw vote totals was hard to follow and highly misleading, with 7 or 8 percent of precincts reporting. It all depended on which parts of which state were reporting.

So in the crucial Georgia race, Sen. Raphael Warnock was "ahead" with 74 percent of the vote to 24 percent for Herschel Walker. Stacey Abrams, who would go on to lose for governor, was also leading incumbent Brian Kemp. So these figures were beyond meaningless.

Further complicating the coverage, with record early voting, was how and when mail-in ballots were counted. In Pennsylvania, for instance, the state is required to count mail-in ballots only after the same-day results are reported. That would mean the Democratic-leaning mail ballots will come in much later, boosting Fetterman.  But there would be nothing suspicious about that.

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It was eye-glazing at times, as the anchors and commentators kept cautioning viewers not to put much stock in the blur of numbers on their magic walls.

While virtually everyone expected a GOP takeover of the House–even President Biden told reporters the House would be "tough"--the cable networks had to go district by district to confirm that Republicans had taken control with 218 seats.

At 8 p.m. eastern, it was another round of "too early to call." Too early in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Too early to say whether New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan could hang on against Republican retired military man Don Bolduc.

Still too early to call in Georgia, where there could be a runoff if Walker or Warnock doesn’t get over 50 percent.

Only the blowout races warranted projections, including Ron DeSantis, who cruised to a landslide victory over Charlie Crist in Florida, and Marco Rubio, as well as Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas.

The pattern continued at 9. Too early to call the race between Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters. Same with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Too early! Too early! Too early! It was repeated like a mantra.

I’ve never seen an election night where so much effort was spent explaining things away. This doesn’t mean anything because the same-day vote hasn’t come in. That doesn’t mean anything because these Republican strongholds haven’t come in. This doesn’t mean anything because it’s too lopsided. Don’t believe your eyes. It was like a hall of mirrors.

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At 10, when the polls closed in Nevada, it was–repeat after me–too early to call. That state’s Senate race offered Republicans perhaps their best shot at a takeaway, with Republican Adam Laxalt taking on Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. In Georgia, Walker had taken the lead over Warnock, 49.6 to 48.5 percent, despite plenty of doomsaying about how he was running behind Gov. Kemp. So there were all these nail-biters, now dubbed "too close to call."

Perhaps that’s why the New York Times published tips for people (meaning Democrats) to stay calm, such as "breathe like a baby" and "plunge your face into a bowl with ice water." 

When NBC projected that Maggie Hassan would hold onto her Senate seat in New Hampshire, Democrats breathed a sigh of relief.

With embattled Democrats holding onto key House districts, such as Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, there was growing talk–especially on MSNBC, but on the other channels as well–that a red wave had not materialized. And yet that didn’t mean the Republicans wouldn’t wind up winning control of both houses of Congress.

By 11, even Sen. Patty Murray’s reelection bid in Washington state was deemed too early to call. Other races continued to tighten. Herschel Walker was still slightly ahead in Georgia and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, where the counting would continue for hours. No calls could be made about the House. But the night was young, and Democrats such as Kathy Hochul would eke out victories after seeming threatened.

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For what it’s worth, Fox coverage was led by journalists Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, and CNN coverage was led by journalist Jake Tapper (not Wolf Blitzer, for the first time in almost two decades). But MSNBC went with an all-liberal panel led by Rachel Maddow. 

Then there was the Trump factor. On election eve, Donald Trump faked out the media by having the word spread that he was going to announce his candidacy at an Ohio rally so he could take credit for the midterms.

He told his advisers he was strongly considering it, and they told reporters, and many Republicans were upset at the notion that it could boost Democratic turnout yesterday. Trump sounds out advisers on a lot of things he doesn’t wind up doing, but it’s moot because he’s now teasing a "major announcement"--next Tuesday.

In an interview with NewsNation, Trump said of the Republicans: "Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit – and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. But it’ll probably be just the opposite. When they win – I think they’re gonna do very well – I’ll probably be given very little credit even though in many cases I told people to run." 

Trump, who plans to announce next week–he warned DeSantis not to run for president after his lawyer said that would be "career suicide"–is going to draw constant coverage, as he has in his post-presidency (in part because MSNBC and CNN love the ratings boost).

At the Ohio rally, Trump called Nancy Pelosi an "animal," and he was not joking–the crowd actually cheered. He recalled a previous conversation where the House speaker asked him not to refer to illegal immigrants as animals, and then revelled in crossing that line. 

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Pointing to the "fake" media, the former president said: "They’ll say, ‘What a horrible thing. He called Nancy Pelosi an animal.’" He also called her "Crazy Nancy Pelosi."

Does he not have a scintilla of sympathy for the fact that her husband was almost murdered in that hammer attack? Is this the time to be calling her that dehumanizing name?

In an emotional interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, Pelosi tied the attack on her husband Paul to Jan. 6 and said both were "fueled by misinformation."

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She choked up while recalling how the Capitol Police banged on her door about 5 a.m. to say Paul had been attacked, and at that moment, they didn’t know where he was or what his condition was.

Her 82-year-old husband faces a long period of recovery. Asked whether she would retire if Republicans win the House, she said the attack would be a factor in her thinking–and we can all figure out what that means.