When ‘Access Hollywood’ week starts to look good

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Trump kicks off return to campaign trail with massive rally in Florida

Trump supporters are showing up to events and will continue to show where it matters including on Election Day, says Isabel Brown, Turning Point USA spokesperson.

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On the roster: When ‘Access Hollywood’ week starts to look good - Judge Barrett answers to senators day two of hearing - Trump tries to turn around Pennsylvania - Biden breaks silence: ‘Not a fan’ of court packing - They say ‘take an interest in school,’ but soon as you do…

WHEN ‘ACCESS HOLLYWOOD’ WEEK STARTS TO LOOK GOOD
The end of the election is three weeks from today and while most folks probably wish they could press fast forward on this sucker, it is a good moment for a bit of a rewind.

At this point in 2016, Republican nominee Donald Trump had hit bottom. The tape of him bragging about making unwanted sexual advances and trying to seduce a married woman had been revealed nine days prior.

His campaign was in shambles, Republicans were openly discussing whether he should step aside in a bid to save the Senate and his poll numbers went in the toilet. It was the only time after the conventions that the GOP nominee fell into the 30s in an average of good polls.

But it was also the beginning of a remarkable comeback for Trump who, after hearing some hard truths from the leaders of his party and campaign advisers, got serious. In the coming weekend he would travel to Gettysburg, Pa. where he would deliver a (mostly) teleprompter-ed punch list of conservative priority points, including on the judiciary, taxes and even term limits.

We all know the story. Trump buckled down – to a degree – just before then-FBI Director James Comey and his crew jumped back in the race to announce the potential existence of more classified emails from the Democratic nominee on the icky laptop of Anthony Weiner. Trump clawed back four points in the polls and managed to thread the needle in three big blue states to mark the most astonishing upset in modern political history.

This week, Trump is again in a trough and again looking at the 30s. He’s hanging on in the low 40s after a series of mostly-self-inflicted contusions, most notably his irritated, rambunctious performance in the first debate, his defiance of conventions on coronavirus etiquette and generally zany behavior following his own infection and then bailing on the second debate because the hosts switched to a virtual platform.

But one could still say that Trump is doing better than he was four years ago. Not only is he outperforming his 2016 national numbers by a few points, but in each of our seven toss-up states he is doing better in an average of recent polls than he was this week four years ago.

And yet, his situation is far more dire now than it was then. And the difference is in his opponent.

Trump trails Democratic nominee Joe Biden by an average of 11.4 points nationally, nearly 4 points worse than his worst deficit four years ago. And on the state level it’s the same story. Biden leads in all seven states while Trump was leading or tied in three of them in 2016. Biden’s share of the vote is, on average, substantially higher than Hillary Clinton’s 21 days out from the end of the election.

Biden is outperforming Clinton during this equivalent period of Trump collapse in every state. In Iowa and Pennsylvania particularly, where Biden is outpacing Clinton by 10 points and 6 points, respectively.

Certainly, 2016 proved that a great deal can change in the span of three weeks. The reason you hear so much hesitance from analysts this time around compared to similar situations in 2008 or 1996 is precisely because their tongues are still smarting from overconfidence four years ago.

But things are different this time in ways other than Biden’s obvious improvement on Clinton’s poor showing. This is a reelection campaign in which far fewer voters, understandably, are likely to be persuaded. Trump was an intriguing figure in 2016 but is a very well-known commodity now. Given Biden’s durability with something like half of the vote, there doesn’t appear to be enough persuadable voters at this point to close the gap for Trump.

Trump is looking for the James Comey of 2020 to deliver a blow to Biden in the closing days and expresses frustration with his own Justice Department for not being able to do the same for him again. One cannot rule out the possibility that there may be some unexploded ordnance to yet blow up on Biden.

The other missing ingredient is also on Trump’s side of the table: The self-control he demonstrated in the wake of his own October surprise in 2016.

That’s not to say that things can’t change, but to understand how dicey things are for the GOP right now just remember that they should envy their worst week in 2016.

THE RULEBOOK: FOLLOW THE RULES
“Controversies between the nation and its members or citizens, can only be properly referred to the national tribunals. Any other plan would be contrary to reason, to precedent, and to decorum.” – Alexander Hamilton, writing about the powers of the judiciary, Federalist No. 80

TIME OUT: CAPTURING APPALACHIA
The Paris Review: “In 1976, twenty-five-year-old Wendy Ewald rented a small house on Ingram Creek in a remote landscape in eastern Kentucky, hoping to make a photographic document of ‘the soul and rhythm of the place.’ As she writes in an essay included in the expanded new edition of Portraits and Dreams: Photographs and Stories By Children of The Appalachians, originally published in 1985, her camera landed on the ‘commonplaces’ of Letcher County. Set in the Cumberland Mountains at the edge of Kentucky and Virginia, Lechter Country is in the rural, rolling, rugged, coal-mining heart of the still sprawling and still vastly misunderstood and frequently mispronounced region known as Appalachia (the correct pronunciation is Appa-LATCH-uh). … But Ewald did not intend to photograph ‘poverty,’ or to photograph the place in the reductive way it had come to be depicted. She was interested in the way the people pictured themselves.”

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SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 42.2 percent  
Biden: 53.6 percent  
Size of lead: Biden by 11.4 points  
Change from one week ago: Biden ↑ 1 point, Trump ↑ 0.2 points
[Average includes: ABC News/WaPo: Trump 43% - Biden 55%; Fox News: Trump 43% - Biden 53%; CNN: Trump 41% - Biden 57%; NBC News/WSJ: Trump 39% - Biden 53%; Monmouth University: Trump 45% - Biden 50%.]

BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 44.2 percent
Average disapproval: 53.8 percent
Net Score: -9.6 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.4 points
[Average includes: ABC News/WaPo: 45% approve - 55% disapprove; Fox News: 47% approve - 52% disapprove; CNN: 40% approve - 57% disapprove; NBC News/WSJ: 43% approve - 55% disapprove; NYT/Siena College: 46% approve - 50% disapprove.]

GOT A WILD PITCH? READY TO THROW A FASTBALL?
We’ve brought “From the Bleachers” to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.

JUDGE BARRETT ANSWERS TO SENATORS DAY TWO OF HEARING
Fox News: “Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett said she expected attacks against her faith and her family when she was nominated to the high court, but that she and her family are ‘all-in’ on serving her country. The Senate Judiciary Committee began grilling Barrett on Tuesday as her marathon hearing continued. She spent the first half of the day being pressed by Democrats on abortion, ObamaCare and more, while repeatedly declining to weigh in on hot-button issues, invoking the so-called ‘Ginsburg rule.’ … The fast-paced questioning by [Sen. Lindsey] Graham of Barrett, which also touched on a couple of other major precedents, including school desegregation and gun rights, and the ‘severability’ doctrine as it applies to the ACA, was the start of what is set to be a marathon two days of hearings. Barrett, as noted by ABC's Trish Turner, was not using notes Tuesday.”

TRUMP TRIES TO TURN AROUND PENNSYLVANIA
The Philadelphia Inquirer: “With 21 days until Election Day, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden — along with the TV advertising and campaign events meant to help them — are zeroing in on the state, where 20 Electoral College votes could push either one to victory. Trump, returning to the campaign trail after having tested positive for the coronavirus almost two weeks ago, will be here for a rally at the airport Tuesday — his first trip to Pennsylvania and only second public event outside Washington since his diagnosis. ‘He’s our best asset and he’s going to be a big shot in the arm for the campaign,’ campaign manager Bill Stepien, one of several people in Trump’s inner circle to test positive for coronavirus, said Monday. Trump has dispatched family members and allies around the country since being sidelined by the virus. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was in Luzerne County this weekend and held an ‘Italians for Trump’ event in Philadelphia on Monday.”

Changes focus to Harris - AP: “Grasping for a comeback, President Donald Trump and his Republican allies are intensifying their focus not on Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but on his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris — arguing without evidence that it’s Harris, the first Black woman on a major party ticket, who would really be in charge if Democrats win the White House. The effort is laced with sexist and racist undertones, and one that is aimed at winning back Republicans and independents who are comfortable with Biden’s more moderate record, but may associate Harris with Democrats’ left flank, despite her own more centrist positions on some major issues. … Trump’s focus on Harris is building as he tries to regain an advantage against Biden, who is leading most national and battleground state polls three weeks before the election. … At his first campaign rally since being hospitalized for the virus, Trump told a Florida crowd on Monday that Biden has ‘a lot of bad days coming.’”

In Florida Trump dances to Village People, says he feels ‘so powerful’ - Tampa Bay Times: “President Donald Trump, eager to put his coronavirus hospitalization behind him, returned to the campaign trail Monday night in Seminole County, a critical battleground in the state most important to his reelection chances. Trump emerged on the stage beaming, pointed and then … he tossed face masks wrapped in plastic into the crowd. ‘I went through it. Now they say I’m immune. I feel so powerful,’ Trump said, his voice sounding strained but energetic. ‘I’ll walk into the audience. I’ll walk in there. I’ll kiss everyone in that audience. I’ll kiss the guys and the beautiful women. Everybody. I’ll just give you a big fat kiss.’”

BIDEN BREAKS SILENCE: ‘NOT A FAN’ OF COURT PACKING
NY Post: “Joe Biden said during an interview on Monday that he was ‘not a fan’ of packing the Supreme Court by adding more justices. Biden was speaking to WKRC TV in Cincinnati when he was confronted with the issue that’s dogged his campaign amid the confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett. ‘I’ve already spoken on — I’m not a fan of court packing. But I’m not — I don’t want to get off on that whole issue,’ Biden said. ‘I want to keep focused.’ Biden also said that ‘court-packing is going on now’ because the election ‘has already begun and millions of votes are being cast.’ But Biden has refused to commit to an answer on whether he would respond to Trump’s nomination of Barrett by adding more justices to the court if elected president.”

Heads to South Florida to pitch to seniors - South Florida Sun Sentinel: “Biden is set to visit Broward County today, where he’ll rally supporters in one of Florida’s most Democratic counties. He’s making a pitch to seniors in Pembroke Pines where he’ll speak about his ‘vision for older Americans.’ Later in the day, he’ll be in Miramar to encourage people ‘to make a plan to vote.’ Miramar has a large Black population, and Biden is likely to focus on African American and Caribbean American voters. Miramar, the state’s 13th largest city, is home to one of the largest populations of Jamaican Americans in the United States. The father of Biden’s running mate, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, is Jamaican American. … Biden spent Monday campaigning in Ohio, another battleground state that is fiercely contested.”

Leading in the Tar Heel state - Monmouth University: “Among all registered voters in North Carolina, the race for president stands at 49% for Joe Biden and 46% for Donald Trump. Another 3% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), less than 1% support other third party candidates, and 2% are undecided. Among likely voters, Biden leads 50% to 46% in a high turnout scenario while the race is almost even at 49% for Biden to 48% for Trump using a low turnout model. These results are similar to Monmouth’s September poll. Biden has made gains in 22 counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat currently holds a 59% to 38% edge among registered voters in these swing counties where the aggregate vote went to Hillary Clinton by a single point. The presidential race was basically tied in these counties last month.”

Is Buttigieg the Biden campaign’s secret weapon? - LAT: “Mayor Pete [Buttigieg] has found his format: the five-minute, remote-feed evisceration. … Last year, as we got to know him during the Democratic presidential nomination race, he bore the weight of being the first openly gay presidential candidate easily, as if it was no big deal. … Certainly, he’s come a long way since April, when Room Rater gave him a 4/10 for a ‘Morning Joe’ interview conducted in front of a bookshelf with a highly regrettable haircut. … The Biden/Harris campaign, naturally, has expressed gratitude for Buttigieg’s high-visibility support (on top of everything else, he does a mean Mike Pence impersonation), and it would be wise for them to continue to do so. It is easier for candidate supporters to offer lacerating commentary than it is for the candidates themselves — that’s why every candidate has a coterie of surrogates.”

DESPITE ONGOING SCANDALS, CUNNINGHAM HOLDS ON TO LEAD
Monmouth University: “The Monmouth University Poll finds North Carolina’s U.S. Senate election has shifted in the Democrat’s favor since last month. Among registered voters, challenger Cal Cunningham has 48% support and first-term Republican incumbent Thom Tillis has 44% support. Other voter support goes to Libertarian Shannon Bray (3%) and Kevin Hayes of the Constitution Party (<1%), with 3% undecided. The race was virtually tied in September’s poll at 46% for Cunningham and 45% for Tillis. Among likely voters in a high turnout scenario, Cunningham leads Tillis by 49% to 44% (versus a 47% to 45% lead in September). Using a lower turnout model, the race is a tight 48% for Cunningham and 47% for Tillis (compared with a tied race at 46% each in September). Tillis won the seat in 2014 by just under two percentage points against then-incumbent Kay Hagan.”

Cook moves Texas, Georgia, Alaska Senate races toward Dems - Cook Political Report: “The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Senate races in Georgia, Texas and Alaska, all with Republican incumbents, toward Democrats. Cook changed its rating for Alaska’s Senate race from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.’ Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is seeking reelection against Al Gross, an independent candidate backed by the state Democratic Party. Sullivan led by 4 points in the most recent survey, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 4 by Alaska Survey Research, but the state has one of the least-polled Senate races. In Texas, Cook also shifted the race from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.’ There, Sen. John Cornyn (R) faces Air Force veteran and former congressional candidate M.J. Hegar. Cornyn leads the race by an average of 7.6 points, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. Cook also shifted Georgia’s Senate special election from ‘lean Republican’ to ‘toss-up.’ Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) is defending her seat in a race that includes Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) and Democratic candidates Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman.”

McConnell, McGrath keep civility in debate - Lexington [Ky.] Herald-Leader: “The debate between U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and his Democratic challenger Amy McGrath was an unusual sight in the 2020 campaign season. It remained civil. The day before polls open in Kentucky, both McGrath and McConnell calmly argued over the reason their opponent shouldn’t win — with McGrath painting the picture of an ineffective Senator who’s been in Washington too long and McConnell painting the picture of someone who would go to Washington and hand over control to the national Democratic Party. The debate, which will likely be the only one of the campaign, was largely an exchange of talking points — much of what both candidates said has been repeated over and over on the campaign trail this year — but McConnell was on the defensive through much of the night as McGrath criticized a lack of legislation to address the pressing issues of the day from a divided Congress.”

Election officials order GOP to remove unofficial ballot boxes in California - LAT: “California’s attorney general and chief elections officer on Monday sent a cease-and-desist letter to Republican Party officials demanding that they immediately stop using private ballot collection containers marked as ‘official’ drop boxes, saying that the do-it-yourself containers that have appeared in several communities across the state are illegal. Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra and Secretary of State Alex Padilla also demanded that GOP officials provide by Thursday a list of all voters whose ballots have been collected using the boxes to ensure the documents were collected with permission. … A spokesman for the California Republican Party rejected the allegation of wrongdoing, insisting the practice is allowed under a 2016 state law that allows a voter to designate any person to collect a completed ballot and return it to election officials, a polling place or vote center, or a secure vote-by-mail drop box.”

Georgia sees long lines in first day of early voting - NY Post: “Georgia’s first day of early voting on Monday drew a record turnout and long lines at certain polling places, a report said. Nearly 127,000 voters in the Peach State cast their ballots on Columbus Day, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Georgia’s secretary of state’s office. ‘Georgia is seeing record turnout for early voting because of excitement and enthusiasm,’ Walter Jones, spokesman for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, told the newspaper. ‘Long lines are to be expected.’ Early voting runs until Oct. 30 in the state, which is also expecting a large amount of its population to vote via absentee ballots over coronavirus concerns.”

So when will absentee votes be counted? It depends - NYT: “Because of the surge in mail ballots that need to be counted, if the presidential race is close, the winner may not be known on election night. … Currently, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — two critical swing states — do not begin pre-processing ballots until Election Day, meaning they may take longer to have results. Michigan, another important state, begins pre-processing just 10 hours before Election Day. Florida, by contrast, allows ballots to begin to be pre-processed 40 days before Election Day. … Complicating things is that some states accept ballots after Election Day, provided they were postmarked by Election Day. Still, any head start in vote counting would help states report results sooner. Two battleground states that give election officials a lot of time to process ballots before Election Day are Florida and Arizona, which means they are likely to have a lot of results on election night.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pollsters have made changes since 2016, have new 2020 worries - FiveThirtyEight

Why Uber, Lyft care how Californians vote on Election Day - WSJ

Pergram: Election will be seminal moment in whether Trump administration, lawmakers secure coronavirus deal - Fox News

AUDIBLE: REST IN PEACE, ROBERTA MCCAIN
“I don’t do anything I’m supposed to do. I don’t exercise and today, I’ve already eaten a half a box of caramel popcorn. Honey, I’ve had a dream life, and it was all luck.” – Roberta McCain, mother of Sen. John McCain, in a 2008 interview with Vogue about her good health and high spirits at age 96. She died, aged 108 years, at home on Sunday.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“In [the Audible] section [of Monday’s Halftime Report] titled Black Robes Only you quoted Sen. Ben Sasse as saying, ‘Our judges don't wear red or blue jerseys.’ But at one time judges did wear robes of all colors, red, blue, purple, white. Many scholars point to England when Queen Mary II died. Because she was a very popular monarch the judges wished to show their support and thus wore black robes as a sign of mourning. The queen was so popular that no judge wanted to stop wearing a black robe and be the first to break mourning. Thus, to this date, it seems our judges remain wearing black robes as mourning for Queen Mary II.” – Steve Bartlett, Greenville, S.C.

[Ed. note: I have heard the same thing, but don’t cha just bet that the judges liked the way the black made them look? We know it’s the most flattering color for many and it carries the power of solemnity. It’s neutral and hides stains well -- quite a useful drape. I’ve known plenty of judges who were hiding golf shorts, tennis skirts and other non-judicial attire underneath but who still looked authoritative in black.]

“I am reminded reading your writeup of the feud between the Hatfield’s and the McCoy’s from your neck of the woods. The back and forth you describe seems oddly familiar but if you are not part of the fight, then you tend to stand off to the side and really wonder why it goes on.  Those in the fight seem to think that nothing else matters while those not in the fight marvel at the spectacle, shake their heads and can’t really understand the point of it all.  Like the famous fight, the Supreme court is in the thick of it and while some might argue they did it to themselves by becoming too politically active while others might argue it is caused by their unwillingness to make the tough decisions required by the constitution.  The rest of us stand by and try to picture a Supreme court with 17 members (for now?).” – Peter Eick, Boerne, Texas

[Ed. note: Good analogy! And don’t forget that the feuding families found their way into the court system with some regularity – even in this century.]

“Monday’s note contained the following text: ‘The 25th amendment is a poorly constructed item, it’s true…. Like the existence of reality television and soy bacon, it’s probably best not to think about it too much unless it becomes an issue in your life.’ If you’ll forgive a bit of editing for the sake of brevity, still considered the soul of wit by many, you have with this line once again channeled the immutable spirit of Mr. Krauthammer. For your efforts to keep his legacy alive in a time when his calm voice is so obviously needed, you have my sincerest thanks.” – Matthew Caster, Dayton, Texas

[Ed. note: What a fine compliment to pay a person! Thank you, Mr. Caster.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

THEY SAY ‘TAKE AN INTEREST IN SCHOOL,’ BUT SOON AS YOU DO…
WBRZ: “An 11-year-old juvenile was taken into custody Sunday after police said the kid stole a school bus and took officers on a pursuit from Scotlandville to Central. Police started pursuing the stolen school bus before 11 Sunday morning. Authorities say the bus was stolen from the 300 block of Elmer St. According to police, the bus belonged to a private owner who subcontracted the vehicle with Progress Head Start. By 11:30, the bus had crashed and officers had surrounded the bus and taken the juvenile driver into custody. … On Monday, police said the bus had no keys in it but had a push-to-start ignition. Officers also believe the child was too small to reach the pedals and had to stand up to drive the bus. Police added that the 11-year-old was seen flipping his middle finger to officers as he drove past them.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“A debate over the relationship between religion and government is about the meaning of our national existence.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing about America’s “holy war” in The New Republic on April 9, 1984.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.