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On the roster: What to expect in Mississippi - Pelosi’s got a problem with the problem solvers - Dems: Spending bill and Mueller measure a package deal - Harris may lose prime Senate perch - Not an *ahem* clean getaway

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MISSISSIPPI
Mississippi? Really?

There has been a tremendous amount of attention paid to what, by all rights, should be an absolutely boring Senate runoff in Mississippi.

But with no reliable polling to speak of and a six week political void stretching out until Democratic 2020 primary campaigns begin in earnest, all eyes in the political press have fallen to the Magnolia State.

We have said many times before and will repeat again now: The greatest bias among reporters is for drama, even above their own personal political predilections. And in this case, the two impulses will tend to align.

If former Democratic congressman and Clinton administration cabinet member Mike Espy wins in Mississippi one year after the Republican debacle with Roy Moore in neighboring Alabama it would be a heck of a story. It would also reinforce the growing narrative about Republicans losing their grip on the South and the rise of Democrats of color.

But is it really a thing?

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has been just awful this campaign. When confronted with her mangled message – jokes about public hangings and voter suppression in Mississippi, sheesh – Hyde-Smith has been evasive. Rather than taking these issues head on, she has fled from the press and hidden behind press releases.

Hyde-Smith is now taking heat for the fact that she and her daughter attended “academy” schools. Across the South many school districts shutdown rather than integrate in the wake of Supreme Court decisions in 1954 and 1955. In other places white parents and teachers simply fled newly integrated schools. In both cases, the recourse was the establishment of academies for white students.

Mississippi, as the current controversy has reminded us, was among the last to succumb to desegregation, holding out until 1970. Hyde-Smith attended such a school and, reportedly, so did her daughter a generation later.

By then, though, the academy system had changed into something else. As it is for wealthier families in the entire nation, these private schools offer special privileges, advantages and protections for children of privilege – and most of those children are white.

While this may come as something shocking to 25 year-old political reporters who grew up in New York or California, voters in Mississippi are well acquainted with the facts of the case, just as they are not shocked to find out that schools had “Rebel” mascots.

Even so it does serve the narrative that Hyde-Smith is some sort of a Theodore Bilbo in disguise. Espy is certainly embracing the idea that Hyde-Smith, a Democrat until 2010 and absolutely anodyne state agriculture commissioner, is the vanguard of the new neo-segregation.

What’s funny here is that the knock on Hyde-Smith in the primary was that she was too squishy. Her Republican rival, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, proudly spoke to Confederate groups and espoused all manner of impolitic positions on the culture wars. Hyde-Smith was supposed to be the safer choice, and here she is getting treated like a grand Kleagle.

Republicans are taking it seriously enough that they have been dumping money into the state ahead of Tuesday’s vote and President Trump is staging a double header of MAGA rallies tonight, one in Tupelo in the northern part of the state and one in Biloxi on the Gulf Coast.

But are we really going to see an upset?

The short answer is almost certainly not. Mississippi is a highly polarized state in which almost all of the black voters are Democrats and almost all of the white voters are Republicans and the result is a long string of 20-point Republican victories – a spread reflecting the ethnic makeup of the state.

And while Hyde-Smith only edged out Espy in the first round by less than half of a point, third place finisher McDaniel took more than 16 percent of the vote, and trust us when we say these are not potential Espy voters.

The very narrow path to which Espy must cling relies on radically altering the electorate through a surge in African American turnout. We do have some history on that since the previous occupant of the Senate seat, Thad Cochran, managed to do exactly that to defeat McDaniel in a runoff in 2016. But Espy would probably need more than that.

There will be McDaniel voters who decline to come out to support the squishy Hyde-Smith (ironically and lamentably, all of the fearmongering about Hyde-Smith’s racial views may sadly help her with some of these voters). Like Doug Jones in Alabama Espy would take office as a likely one-term senator, which might be preferable to some Mississippi GOP hardliners to what would be almost certainly the permanent incumbency of Hyde-Smith.

Weirder things have happened than a former Democratic congressman winning an upset in the Deep South. After all, if they make Flexible Flyer sleds in West Point, Miss., not a town famous for its frosty flakes, anything’s possible.

But if the expected comes to pass, don’t be surprised that a story that produced a ho-hum outcome got so much attention. Reporters love a good yarn.

THE RULEBOOK: COLD CASH
“The genius of republics (say they) is pacific; the spirit of commerce has a tendency to soften the manners of men, and to extinguish those inflammable humors which have so often kindled into wars.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 6

TIME OUT: WHAT A COUP
Lapham’s Quarterly: “Operation Ajax (or TPAJAX, as it was called in official documentation) was the first covert regime-change operation carried out by Central Intelligence Agency, then only six years old, and it very nearly failed. But in the end, under [Kermit Roosevelt’s] leadership, the CIA carried it off and deposed the popular and populist Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh, a democratically elected leader who sought to reverse decades of foreign influence and exploitation in his country. In so doing, he threatened British oil interests, which set him on a collision course with the world’s preeminent postwar powers. Those powers arrived in 1953, as Kermit Roosevelt began organizing the coup that would force Mossadegh from power and into house arrest. But the story of Operation Ajax begins long before 1953…”

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SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance
Average approval: 40.6 percent
Average disapproval: 55 percent
Net Score: -14.4 points
Change from one week ago: down 3.8 points
[Average includes: Gallup: 38% approve - 60% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 41% approve - 54% disapprove; CBS News: 39% approve - 55% disapprove; Monmouth University: 44% approve - 49% disapprove; CNN: 41% approve - 57% disapprove.]

PELOSI’S GOT A PROBLEM WITH THE PROBLEM SOLVERS
WaPo: “A group of nine centrist Democrats vowed anew Monday to oppose Rep. Nancy Pelosi or any other candidate for House speaker unless they agreed to rules changes aimed at easing bipartisan legislating. … The fresh demands from Democratic members of the cross-aisle Problem Solvers Caucus come after pushback from Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a young liberal star of the incoming freshman class who in a holiday weekend tweet called them ‘GOP-friendly rules’ that ‘will hamstring healthcare efforts from the get-go.’ The nine Democrats initially threatened to withhold their votes in a Nov. 13 letter. Now, with behind-the-scenes talks sputtering, they are renewing their demands. The tiff stands as an early test of Pelosi’s ability to balance the wishes of more moderate lawmakers — ‘majority makers’ who have been able to win swing and Republican-leaning districts — against an aggressive new crop of young progressives more interested in confrontation than compromise.”

Dissident drops threat to vote against Pelosi for speaker - Politico: “Another Democrat who has threatened to vote on the House floor against Nancy Pelosi for speaker seemed to soften that stance on Sunday, giving the California Democrat the appearance of momentum before a key test vote on Wednesday. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), one of 16 lawmakers or members-elect who had signed a letter promising to vote against Pelosi on the floor, said on Sunday he would back her over a Republican during the critical Jan. 3 vote. Pelosi allies have been insisting that a vote against her on the floor, where she needs a majority of the House to win the gavel, would effectively be supporting a Republican for speaker — though technically members can vote for a Democrat other than the nominee. Lynch appeared to concur with that line of thinking rather than push back on the suggestion that other Pelosi critics have deemed a ‘false choice’ and tried to combat privately for weeks.”

DEMS: SPENDING BILL AND MUELLER MEASURE A PACKAGE DEAL
WSJ: “Congressional Democrats heading into the critical stretch of the lame-duck session increasingly say they will tie their support for a high-priority spending bill to a measure protecting special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian electoral interference. That sets up a potentially contentious several weeks as Democrats continue to pressure Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker to recuse himself from the Mueller inquiry. … The concerns over the Mueller probe join broader questions about whether Mr. Whitaker, whom President Trump appointed after ousting Jeff Sessions on Nov. 7, can serve without Senate confirmation. … Democrats will gain some power when they take control of the House in January, but they say their most immediate leverage comes from Congress’s need to pass spending bills by Dec. 8. Republicans in both chambers say they want to avoid a partial government shutdown, and they need Democratic votes to do so. Spending bills need 60 votes to clear procedural hurdles in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 51 seats. The GOP tentatively gained two seats in the recent election, but the newcomers won’t take office until January.”

HARRIS MAY LOSE PRIME SENATE PERCH
WaPo: “Senate Democrats’ midterm losses have created a dilemma for the party’s leadership over a key committee seat held by Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.)… Yet unless Democrats strike a deal, either with the Senate’s Republican majority or with fellow Democrats on the committee, numbers and seniority dictate that Harris will be out — and that has liberal groups scrambling to save her position. … Shortly after the midterm elections, Harris told Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) that she wanted to stay on the Judiciary panel, according to her spokeswoman, Lily Adams. … And it is by no means assured that Harris will lose her seat. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Schumer, the minority leader, could agree to expand the number of Republicans on the panel, so that no Democrats are forced off — something [Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.)] said ‘magically’ happened for him after Democrats lost the Senate majority in 2014.”

‘Maybe we don’t need Oprah’: Early state Dems getting serious - McClatchy: “In New Hampshire earlier this month, veteran Democratic strategist Judy Reardon took stock of the midterm results and concluded that the party needs someone whose style is more calm and conciliatory than combative counter-puncher. ‘Before this election, I had been of the mind that the Democratic nominee to beat Trump had to be somebody with a big personality,’ she said. ‘...I now think that very well might not be the case. … Somebody who’s less flashy. Maybe we don’t need Oprah,’ she continued. Indeed, the Democratic Party is poised for pitched battles over both personality and ideology in their quest for someone who can defeat Trump in the general election. Does the party need a nominee with a big persona to match Trump’s brashness, or a lower-key figure who exudes stability? A progressive firebrand who thrills party activists or a centrist from the business world who can appeal to Republicans?”

Sanders says he'll ‘probably run’ in 2020 - Fox News: “Sen. Bernie Sanders might run for president again. The Vermont independent said he would pursue another presidential bid if he thought he would be the best person to defeat President Trump in 2020. ‘If there’s somebody else who appears who can, for whatever reason, do a better job than me, I’ll work my a-- off to elect him or her,’ the progressive Sanders, 77, told New York Magazine. ‘If it turns out that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump, then I will probably run.’ Sanders famously ran for president in 2016, losing the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton. His aides reportedly are keeping an eye on Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., also widely seen as a potential contender in the next presidential election. Sanders recently traveled to South Carolina, one of the early-voting states.”

GM’s decision to halt production in Ohio, Michigan could hurt Trump in 2020 - Roll Call: “General Motors’ decision to halt production in two states that were key to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory could complicate the president’s re-election bid. The U.S. automobile manufacturer announced Monday it plans to cease work on the Chevrolet Cruze at a Lordstown, Ohio, plant and on three Chevy, Buick and Cadillac models at a Detroit-Hamtramck facility in Michigan. The company said those moves, along with another at a Canada-based factory, are aimed at cutting costs.”

Trump isn’t happy with the decision - Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump said he’s ‘not happy about’ General Motors Co.’s plans to lay off more than 14,000 workers and close seven factories worldwide. Trump responded to the job cuts on Monday as he departed the White House for campaign rallies in Mississippi. He added that the country has done a lot for GM. … Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra plans to meet with White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Monday following the automaker’s announcement a White House official said. The meeting had been planned prior to Monday’s announcement of the job cuts, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity about a meeting that hasn’t been publicly announced.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Mia Love holds first press conference since losing re-election, calls out Trump for his criticisms - Politico

Graham, Collins may push Trump on Saudi Arabia - The Hill

ICYMI: I’ll Tell You What: Dana and Peter on the “special relationship” - Fox News

AUDIBLE: ONE OF THESE KIDS IS DOING HIS OWN THING
“A few thoughts on 2020 since all of my friends appear to be running…” – Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, in the beginning of a Twitter thread. At the end of the thread he notes that “there are no circumstances” under which he’d run for president.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Mr. Stirewalt, Thank you for letting me know about Adam Kelly's article on thankfulness. I often become cynical or forgetful or unappreciative on the innumerable blessings I have received. I live relatively close to Mexico, and I think how different my life would be if I was born on the Mexico side of the Rio Grande. It only involves a few hundred yards in distance but a world of difference in one's life. I listen to your podcast, I'll Tell You What, on a regular basis and enjoy many of your political insights. You amaze me with your grasp of historical and political trivia. The best to you and yours at this Thanksgiving Season.” – Roland Shook, Silver City, N.M.

[Ed. note: I haven’t found any way to obtain happiness or it’s more meaningful relation, joy, without starting from a posture of gratitude. I know that as well as I know anything in the world. And yet I still manage to screw that up regularly! My father used to say that the word “deserve” was the most dangerous one in his vocabulary. As a boy I didn’t understand, but now I do. As soon as I start thinking about what is owed to me and what I ought to have, I am bound to end up melancholy in short order. But if I can muster enough humility to begin my day with a simple “thank you” to my Creator for healthy sons, breath in my lungs and honest work to do, this quickly goes the other direction. And I’ll add another point of gratitude: Readers like you who make it all worthwhile.]

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NOT AN *AHEM* CLEAN GETAWAY
AP: “Dutch police who found 350,000 euros ($400,000) hidden inside a washing machine have detained a man on suspicion of — what else? — money laundering. Police said in a statement Thursday that officers were checking a house in western Amsterdam on Monday for unregistered residents when they found the valuable laundry load. A photo displayed on the police website showed bundles of bank notes, mainly 20- and 50-euro bills, crammed into the drum. The officers also found a money-counting machine, a gun and several cell phones. The 24-year-old suspect’s name was not released, in line with Dutch privacy rules.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Without Ukraine, there’s no Russian empire. Putin knows that. Which is why he keeps ratcheting up the pressure. The question is, can this administration muster the counterpressure to give Ukraine a chance to breathe?” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post Feb. 27, 2014.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.