Trump leads in key battlegrounds but Biden has the edge nationally: poll

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Biden takes lead over Trump in national poll

Wall Street Journal associate editor John Bussey breaks down the numbers and what they could mean for the presidential election.

A new poll shows President Trump topping Joe Biden by 7 percentage points in key battleground states ahead of November’s general election.

But the CNN survey – released on Wednesday – also indicates the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has a 5-point national advantage over the GOP incumbent in the White House.

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According to the poll, collectively, Trump would lead Biden 52-45 percent among registered voters in the battleground states if the presidential election were held today.

The survey indicates Trump topping Biden by 17 percentage points among men in the battleground states, compared with the former vice president’s slight 2-point edge among women. And it suggests the president with an 18-point lead among those under 50, with Biden holding a 4-point advantage with voters 50 and older.

The states considered battlegrounds in the CNN poll were Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

While those battlegrounds are critical in determining who wins the Electoral College – and with it, the election – the poll still tells a different story among voters nationwide, with Biden ahead of Trump 51-46 percent. Biden enjoys a 14-point lead among women, with Trump holding a 4-point edge among men. And unlike in the battlegrounds, the survey suggests Biden has a 3-point edge among voters under 45, and holds a 6-point advantage among voters 45 and older.

As expected, there’s an extremely wide partisan divide, with 95 percent of Democrats backing Biden and 95 percent of Republicans supporting the president. Trump holds a 4-point edge among independent voters.

The poll shows Trump holding a 12-point advantage over Biden on which candidate is most trusted to handle the nation’s economy. But Biden’s trusted by 6 points over Trump to handle the response to the coronavirus pandemic and by 12 points over the president to deal with health care.

Trump has a 3-point edge over Biden on which candidate has the stamina and sharpness to be president. But Biden has the advantage on five other attributes asked in the poll — uniting rather than dividing the country, being honest and trustworthy, caring about ordinary people, managing government effectively, and being trusted in a crisis.

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While national polling – and breakouts that group the battleground states – can be telling, the race for the White House is a fight for the individual states and their electoral votes. Many of the most recent polls in the specific battleground states still suggest Biden holds the edge with less than six months to go until the general election.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10, with 1,112 adults – including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states – questioned by live telephone operators. The sampling error for registered voters nationwide is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, and 5.5 percentage points for questions of registered voters in the battleground states.