Trump campaign bullish post-convention, claims polls 'tightening' in battleground states

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The Trump campaign is on “offense” in the first week following the Republican National Convention, saying polls are “tightening” in key battleground states, and that President Trump has several pathways to victory, including the potential to grab some formerly deep blue states.

During a call with reporters on Tuesday, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said the campaign “wants to be on offense, controlling the narrative,” and “not on the defense.”

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"That’s what we're doing, and that's where we are," Stepien said, saying that the last two weeks showed a “tale of two conventions," where he said the Democrats "tried to make Americans feel bad about America" without detailing their policies.

“It’s not that they don’t have policies, they just don't want to talk about them,” Stepien said, casting them as “really unpopular.”

“We’ve polled their policies, they’ve polled their policies — the dirty secret is that these radical policies are super unpopular among blue-collar, and middle-class Americans,” Stepien said, while touting the Republican National Convention as one that “made people feel good about America.”

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But, shifting their focus to the polls, despite often downplaying their accuracy, Stepien said the campaign has seen “all positive movement.”

“We like the movement we’ve seen both internally and externally, certainly over the last two weeks,” Stepien said.

The president, at this point, is down in the polls, both nationally and in the bulk of the battleground states he would need to beat Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in November — but polling averages indicate that Trump may actually be in better shape in his race against Biden than he was at the same stage in his 2016 race against Hillary Clinton.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, Biden is ahead by just 2.7 points in Wisconsin, a state the president won in 2016; Biden is ahead by 4.7 points in Pennsylvania, and ahead by just 2.6 points in Michigan.

In Minnesota, a state that hasn’t seen a Republican presidential candidate victory in decades, has Biden up by just 5.3 points.

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Trump has the incumbency advantage yet a controversial record to defend, especially on the coronavirus pandemic. But the numbers overall indicate that Trump remains competitive in several of the most important states to the Electoral College.

“The polls are tightening in every state we need to reach 270 electoral votes,” Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said Tuesday. “In battleground states, when you survey likely voters who are actually going to show up … we believe we are leading or within the margin of error for every state for Trump to reach 270 electoral votes.”

One pathway to victory for Team Trump, Miller said, was winning Florida.

“As long as we hold on to Florida and do well in states like Arizona and North Carolina, Biden has to shut us out in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” Miller said. “They have to go 4-for-4 in those states, which is something we just don’t think is going to happen.”

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At this point, Trump trails Biden in Florida, according to the RealClearPolitics average, by 3.7 points, but Stepien, in response to a question from Fox News, said the state is “culturally shifting our way.”

“We firmly believe that Trump will win Florida in 2020,” Miller said.

The campaign, however, said that even without a win in Florida, there is still a pathway to victory by winning in upper Midwest states.

“Minnesota is a state culturally shifting our way,” Stepien said, adding that “you want optionality in politics.”

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"We see opportunity in Nevada, we see opportunity in Maine," Stepien said. "Trump has really changed the map…This is a new map that is really leaning our way and putting us on offense, which has much to do with the president’s policy successes."

The campaign pointed to Biden's first campaign stops since the Democratic National Convention, to Minnesota and Wisconsin.

“It’s nice to have the reinforcement from the opposing team,” Miller said, adding that the Trump campaign has plans to spend $14 million in Minnesota on television ads from this week through Election Day.

“We’ve already laid down the marker,” he said. “We’re going all in. We think we can win.”

Miller added that in Florida, the campaign has invested $38 million in television time through Election Day, and $16 million in Pennsylvania, while acknowledging that some of the planning will “change and shift around.”

“We have made the commitment and mapped out a very aggressive game plan to go to these states,” Miller said. “We feel good about where we’re at.”

Meanwhile, Biden said he will resume in-person campaigning next month, with stops in some of the crucial general election battleground states.

Biden said he plans on holding in-person events after Labor Day “without jeopardizing or violating state rules about how many people can in fact assemble.”

“One of the things we’re thinking about is I’m going to be going up into Wisconsin, and Minnesota, spending time in Pennsylvania, out in Arizona,” Biden explained. “I’m going to be traveling throughout the country where I can do it consistent with the state rules about how many people can be assembled.”

According to the RealClearPolitics national average, Biden is leading Trump by 6.2 points.