The pessimist’s guide to the election

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Election 2020: Which states hold the keys to the White House?

Tom Bevan, RealClearPolitics co-founder, and Jim Messina, former WH deputy chief of staff, weigh in on 'The Daily Briefing.'

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On the roster: The pessimist’s guide to the election - Trump barnstorms - Biden’s Keystone pipeline - Buster Bluth wanted for questioning

THE PESSIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ELECTION
One of the keys to a happy life is to have the capacity for pessimistic thinking without being a pessimist. 

To wit: If you’re weighing risks and rewards of a potential choice, you’ve got to figure out the worst thing that can happen before you can decide whether it’s worth it. Should you ask Suzy Creamcheese to the prom? Should you eat this oyster you just found? Should you tell your boss she has toilet paper stuck to her shoe? Should you make a film version of “Cats”?

Envision the absolute catastrophe – rejection, death, mortification or this  – as a starting place. If the risk isn’t worth the reward, you can be on your merry way, glad to have avoided needless peril. But if you know you can live with the worst case, you can proceed with the confidence of an informed optimist.

The human capacity to envision various possible outcomes can be a trap for obsessive negativity, but truly it is one of our greatest gifts. Not only does it make us better decision makers, it equips us for hard times. Having imagined the worst makes us more resilient should it come to pass. The harshest blow is the one unforeseen. 

And in a moment like the culmination of this year’s presidential election, we would all do well to explore the other side of our hopes. 

Rudyard Kipling put it best: “If you can dream – and not make dreams your master; If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim; If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster; and treat those two impostors just the same.” 

So let’s get to it.

DEMOCRAT DYSTOPIA
We start with Democrats and others rooting for former Vice President Joe Biden because he and his party are heavily favored to prevail. Plus, Democrats have always been really good at pre-election panic and despair. It’s almost a folkway, likely one born of going 1-6 in presidential elections between 1968 and 1988.

Here goes: Our final average of national polls gives Biden a 9.6-point lead over President Trump, 51.6 percent to 42 percent. If that came to pass, Trump would suffer the worst defeat of an incumbent since Jimmy Carter, who lost by nearly 10 points in 1980.

But in 2012, the polls understated support for the incumbent and overstated support for the challenger. The final pre-election average put then-President Obama up just 0.6 points over challenger Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 48.4 percent. But the final results gave Obama a nearly 4-point win, 51.1 percent to 47.2 percent.

So give Trump an Obama-sized bump and Biden a Romneyesque deflation and you get a much smaller 6.2-point advantage for this year’s challenger, which would put the Electoral College within reach.

If the error was a consistent 3.4 points in Trump’s favor across the states, it would give the incumbent Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas off the bat and put Arizona and North Carolina on the edge of a knife. If those three tilted his way, Trump would need just 11 more electoral votes to win.

And here comes Pennsylvania…

After an arduous three days of counting, Biden fails narrowly to overtake Trump’s Election Day lead. After a flurry of litigation, the commonwealth is compelled to certify the results and Trump wins, 279 electoral votes to 259 electoral votes.

In such a scenario, Republicans would almost certainly also retain the Senate, paving the way for more judicial appointments – maybe two more on the Supreme Court – and another round of tax cuts.

Meantime, unrest rules the cities and the progressive left bursts like a pack of Mentos in a bottle of Diet Coke. Federal forces deploy aggressively. The nation is on edge. Trump takes the oath of office at a Capitol ringed with barbed wire and battalions of troops.

REPUBLICAN ROUT
Republicans tend to enjoy the run-ups to elections more than Democrats because of their strong tendency to disregard polls, or at least those unfavorable to them. Trump is adding to a hoary lineage of Republicans rejecting public opinion research. They’re *ahem* not shy about saying so either.

But if ignorance is bliss, it also can tend to make unhappy realities even more painful.

In 2016, Trump was, in effect, running as a challenger. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, was from the incumbent party and had been a known entity in politics for decades. Trump, running for the party out of power, was a well-known figure but not a known commodity as a politician.

The final polling average for Clinton and Trump gave the Democrat a 3.4-point national lead; 47.2 percent to 43.8 percent. Given the large number of undecided voters at the end, it’s not surprising that both candidates did better than their closing averages – Trump by 2.5 points and Clinton by 1 point.

Late deciders narrowed the gap enough for Trump that he was able to scale the Blue Wall for an Electoral College win. So what if challenger Biden benefits from the same effect among late deciders and ends up with the same boost?

That would translate to a national popular vote tally of 54.1 percent for Biden and 43 percent for Trump – the worst defeat for an incumbent since Herbert Hoover’s 18.8-point loss of 1932.

If you put just that little 1.5-point afterburner on Biden’s current swing-state numbers he would every battleground state and cruise to a 412-126 Electoral College victory.

That would also certainly mean that Democrats would win the Senate with at least 52 seats. That would deliver a massive stimulus package on the first day of the Biden presidency – think $3 trillion or more – and the rollback of the Trump tax cuts soon after. One or both would also include expanded health insurance coverage. It would also mean undoing every single executive order Trump ever enacted.

Now, we know that the most likely scenarios fall between the two of these. A modest but decisive win for Biden with just above 300 electoral votes and a closely divided Senate would seem to fall in the middle of the range of potential outcomes.

But partisans would do well to remember that either of the scenarios above are about equally likely. When you start playing with probabilities to imagine success, remember that the pendulum is just as likely to swing away from you.

But now that you’ve acknowledged what the worst case might be, you can be of good cheer and settle in for a heckuva Election Day.

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too…”

THE RULEBOOK: ON THIS ELECTION EVE… 
“It is, that in a democracy, the people meet and exercise the government in person; in a republic, they assemble and administer it by their representatives and agents. A democracy, consequently, will be confined to a small spot. A republic may be extended over a large region.” – James Madison, in an essay regarding objections to the proposed Constitution, Federalist No. 14

TIME OUT: THE HITCHHIKER OF THE OCEAN
NYT: “In 2014, Jeremy Goldbogen, a marine biologist at Stanford University, stuck video cameras on the backs of blue whales, hoping to learn more about their feeding habits. When he retrieved the footage, he realized he had been photobombed. Dozens of Remora australis were treating his research subjects like dance floors, skimming and twisting across them — even as the whales swam at high speeds. They were ‘cruising all over the surface’ of the whales, he said. ‘We were not expecting that at all.’ Remoras — also known as suckerfish or whalesuckers — are strange, even for fish. They hitch rides with cetaceans, sharks and other larger creatures of the deep, attaching to them by means of a ‘sucking disc’ that sits on their head like a flat, sticky hat. They then act as a kind of mobile pit crew, eating dead skin, parasites and leftovers off their hosts’ bodies as they’re dragged along upside down.”

Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.

SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 42 percent    
Biden: 51.6 percent    
Size of lead: Biden by 9.6 points    
Change from one week ago: Biden ↑ 0.6 points, Trump ↑ 2.2 points
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University: Trump 39% - Biden 50%; NBC News/WSJ: Trump 42% - Biden 52%; Fox News: Trump 44% - Biden 52%; USA Today/Suffolk: Trump 43% - Biden 50%; CNN: Trump 42% - Biden 54%.]

BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (115 electoral votes): Georgia (16) Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (164 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (259 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 44.2 percent
Average disapproval: 54 percent
Net Score: -9.8 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 3.4 points
[Average includes: NBC News/WSJ: 45% approve - 52% disapprove; Fox News: 46% approve - Gallup: 46% approve - 52% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 44% approve - 53% disapprove; CNN: 42% approve - 56% disapprove.]

GOT A WILD PITCH? READY TO THROW A FASTBALL?
We’ve brought “From the Bleachers” to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.

TRUMP BARNSTORMS
Fox News: “President Trump on Monday again hit the campaign trail, speaking to supporters in North Carolina amid a final push through swing states ahead of Election Day. Trump began with remarks at a ‘Make America Great Again Victory Rally’ at Fayetteville Regional Airport in North Carolina -- a state he won in 2016 and will be seeking to keep in his column on Tuesday. ‘Tomorrow we are going to win this state and we are going to win four more years in our great White House,’ he told the crowd. … Trump touched on everything from what he called the ‘fake’ polls showing him behind, the Hunter Biden laptop scandal and alleged bias in Big Tech companies like Twitter. He described Hunter Biden as a ‘vacuum cleaner, going all over the world, following his father, picking up the scraps.’ He also played a video showing a number of gaffes and verbal stumbles by Joe Biden.”

Team Trump hopes rallies will energize Keystone State Republicans - NYT: “Mr. Trump devoted Saturday to four rallies across the state, and he and Mr. Biden planned campaign events for the final 48 hours of the race as well, with a wave of prominent Democrats and celebrities slated to arrive. On Monday the president was set to make an appeal to white, working-class voters in Scranton, where Mr. Biden was born, while the Democratic nominee was aiming to solidify a broad coalition of white suburbanites and voters of color on a two-day swing through Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and elsewhere in western Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead with a modest margin in recent polls, and is trying to cut into the president’s turnout in rural counties. But Mr. Trump’s rallies have energized many Republican voters, and his team is already preparing legal challenges over the vote if it ends up being close.”

GOP takes a gamble on Florida - Politico: “The presidential contest in the nation’s tightest swing state, and perhaps the entire race for the White House, ultimately comes down to two big bets. Florida Democrats are placing the more complicated wager: that they can turn out enough low-propensity, new and blue-leaning independent voters — along with more senior citizens than usual — to win the day. The Republican gamble is more straightforward. It hinges on turning out their more numerous high-propensity voters on Election Day — a time-honored practice for the Florida GOP. For the past three general elections here, Republicans have prevailed with that strategy. … Those fears of coronavirus delayed Joe Biden’s campaign and Florida Democrats from registering new voters and from hitting the ground in force with field staff and volunteers to turn out voters. The late start has already led to concerns, particularly in Miami, that turnout will not be at the level necessary to flip the state.”

And in Georgia - Politico: “Donald Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points in 2016. On Tuesday, he’ll be lucky if he squeaks by with a half-point victory. Public and private polling has Trump and Joe Biden locked in a margin-of-error race, dangling the prospect that Democrats might turn the state blue for the first time since 1992. The tightness of the race can be clearly charted by candidate visits: In the past eight days, Kamala Harris has twice rallied voters in the Atlanta metro area, while Biden delivered his closing message speech in Warm Springs, where he urged voters to give him a chance to ‘heal’ the country and ‘restore our soul.’ Barack Obama will visit Atlanta on Monday. Trump also returned to Georgia Sunday night for a final rally before Election Day. … Enormous growth, demographic change and an anti-Trump backlash in the Atlanta suburbs is driving Georgia’s newfound competitiveness…”

Trump defends supporters who surrounded Biden bus, blocked traffic - NYT: “The battle for the presidency is hitting the road. In several instances over the last few days, supporters of President Trump have disrupted traffic. In Texas on Friday, Trump supporters surrounded a Biden campaign bus, and in New York and New Jersey on Sunday, Trump supporters halted traffic on two major highways. On Sunday, the F.B.I. said it was investigating the Texas incident, which Mr. Biden described as an effort to run his team ‘off the road.’ But Mr. Trump defended the Texas drivers in a post on Twitter on Sunday night… And his spokesman, Jason Miller, when asked about the New York and New Jersey incidents, made a similar plea, saying that he was more concerned with ‘downtown Washington businesses having to board up their windows in anticipation of lawless, violent Biden supporters rioting and looting on Tuesday night.’ There was nothing to suggest that would happen.”

Trump contemplates deceptive declaration - Axios: “President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's ‘ahead,’ according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania. Speaking to reporters on Sunday evening, Trump denied that he would declare victory prematurely, before adding, ‘I think it's a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it's a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over.’ He continued: ‘I think it's terrible that we can't know the results of an election the night of the election. ... We're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers.’”

BIDEN’S KEYSTONE PIPELINE
Fox News: “As the presidential race draws to a close, President Trump is slated to make a last-minute appeal to voters in four battleground states with a dizzying number of campaign rallies while his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, focuses heavily on Pennsylvania. After a campaign stop in Cleveland, Ohio, Biden will head to Pennsylvania for a canvassing event in Beaver County with union members and labor leaders; a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh to galvanize Black voters; and another drive-in event in Pittsburgh with Lady Gaga. His running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, will also be stumping across the state, with several planned campaign events culminating in a drive-in rally with John Legend in Philadelphia. Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as crucial to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Trump narrowly won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton ‒ part of the ‘blue wall’ that he knocked down…”

Latest poll shows Biden ahead - Monmouth University: “Joe Biden holds a 5-point to 7-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to the Monmouth University Poll. The challenger has widespread backing from core Democratic constituencies, including young voters and people of color. These strengths offset small gains by the incumbent among senior voters and in the state’s most competitive counties. More voters trust Biden to handle the pandemic, which is a bigger issue advantage than Trump has on jobs or law and order. Biden leads Trump by a 51% to 44% margin among likely Pennsylvania voters in a high turnout model. The race stands at 50% Biden to 45% Trump in a low turnout scenario – which at this point would basically mean a large number of mail ballots have been rejected.”

With a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, Arizona is tied - NBC News: “Democrat Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania, while the two candidates are tied in Arizona, according to the final NBC News/Marist state polls of the 2020 presidential election. In Pennsylvania, which Trump won four years ago, Biden is ahead by 5 points among likely voters, 51 percent to 46 percent… That’s down from Biden’s 9-point lead in the state in September’s NBC/Marist poll of the state. … In Arizona, which Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016, the candidates are tied at 48 percent each among likely voters, with a combined 4 percent undecided or voting for someone else. (Among all registered voters in the state, it’s Biden 48 percent, Trump 47 percent — down from Biden’s 5-point lead in July.)”

Looks strong nationally, in Florida and Ohio too - Quinnipiac University: “On the eve of Election Day 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has narrow leads over President Donald Trump in Florida and Ohio, according to the final Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls conducted before the election. In a national poll, Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters, largely unchanged from the 10-point leads he has held since September, nationally. … In Florida, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 42 percent support Trump. … In Ohio, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 43 percent support Trump. … Biden leads Trump 50 - 39 percent in today's national poll of likely voters.”

Obama makes final push in Georgia - AJC: “A fiery former President Barack Obama campaigned for Joe Biden and down-ticket Democrats in Atlanta on Monday, slamming President Donald Trump and other Republicans for ‘empty promises’ and selfish politics amid a growing coronavirus pandemic. He arrived in Atlanta with a mission to help Democrats win Georgia in a White House race for the first time since 1992, and he laced his comments with sharp barbs at Trump as he pleaded with left-leaning voters who ‘lost faith in government’ to cast their ballots this year. But his pitstop was as much focused on Georgia’s two U.S. Senate contest as it was Biden’s push to flip the state.”

REVIEWING THE TAPE
Douthat: ‘The Opportunities We Lost Under Trump’ - NYT: “In the original Greek the term 'apocalypse' refers to an unveiling, the gray rain clouds of the everyday world torn away and something long hidden finally revealed. The political apocalypse of 2016, when Donald Trump improbably vanquished the establishment of both parties, fits this ancient definition perfectly: It was a moment when all kinds of uncomfortable truths about American life were suddenly exposed, when the hidden realities of our country and our coalitions were suddenly dragged up into the light, when the failures in both parties and every faction were laid bare. So when we talk about what’s been lost in the four years of Trump’s administration, we should start with the lost opportunities to address what was revealed in 2016. These failures aren’t universal; there has been some reckoning with what the last presidential election meant, some attempts at treatment in response to a ‘that’s why you got Trump’ diagnosis.”

Noonan: ‘Raucous 2016 Gives Way to Subdued 2020’ - WSJ: “Where did Donald Trump come from? I think now what I wrote [in 2016]. He was produced by both parties’ collusion in refusing to stop illegal immigration, carelessness about war, and confusion as to how to avoid, then how to deal with, economic calamity. The Republicans were afraid to lift their wagons out of ruts formed half a century ago. Mr. Trump was clever enough to see an opening that wouldn’t harm him either way (victory or a branding opportunity) and won. In the time since everyone has felt tested—personally, in terms of higher loyalties, in our national life. Some maintained their poise, good cheer and judgment. Others wobbled, some a lot. It’s been a hard time. Everyone but the stupid feels wounded in some way. Twenty sixteen was raucous and wild—the Sisterhood of the Traveling Pantsuit, Make America Great Again. Twenty twenty is altogether different—subdued, determined. As if a steely decision is being made and executed. I believe Mr. Trump is about to be fired, most spectacularly by the women of America. Those long lines at the early-voting places—they are the rallies Mr. Biden didn’t hold. They happened anyway.”

Daniel Larsen: ‘What Happens if Neither Trump Nor Biden Concedes?’ - NYT: “Ultimately, all democratic transitions are based on one side being willing to concede power to another. Without a concession at some stage, power must be allocated by force: Either the military must decide, or there is civil war. There is growing concern that the United States may be arriving at a moment where a concession is no longer achievable — but if this is the case, this is ultimately a problem with the state of American politics, not its legal machinery. To the extent that the electoral machinery matters, the American system is in many ways surprisingly robust. In ordinary presidential systems elsewhere, an election commission announces the outcome. Then, the political spotlight shifts immediately to the defeated candidate, who must make the crucial decision: Will they accept the result? It is a democracy’s most defining and most perilous moment.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
White House to have ‘non-scalable’ fence and military on standby for anticipated election protests - USA Today

Justice Amy Coney Barrett to hear first SupCo oral arguments Monday - Fox News

AUDIBLE: ON TO THE NEXT ONE
“I wasn’t happy Penn State lost to Indiana, but you know what? They lost, and you can’t not play the next game or say ‘I’m done playing’ or ‘I’m going to protest this.’ We have to respect that maybe not everyone agrees with me.” – Greg Rothman, a Republican state representative in Cumberland County, Pa., talking to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Two polls that should be given more weight: ‘Who do you believe your neighbor may vote for?’ Trump wins the polls on this question and in one, by 55%. In an atmosphere where people are afraid to reveal they support Trump (afraid of being called ‘stupid, bigot, and racist’ or afraid of being verbally or physically assaulted) they may be revealing that they intend to vote for Trump.  It’s hard to determine what weight to give it. People who, when asked, say they are voting for Biden often answer the question ‘Who do you think will win?’ say Trump. This may be for the same reasons set forth above. These may be ‘secret’ Trump voters.  Only the outcome of the election will tell if there really are ‘secret’ Trump voters. If there are, the pollsters will have to significantly revamp their methodology.” – Ronald A. Phillips, Orangeburg, N.Y.

[Ed. note: The funny thing about the kinds of polls you mention is that they are more likely to be a reflection of Democrats' obvious anxieties of a repeat of 2016. We have seen in surveys where some of the highest numbers for those believing Trump will win are among liberals. Now it is possible that lots of Americans are taking the time to construct a complicated false profile to share with pollsters in order to secretly express their support for Trump by saying they are both voting against him but also believe he will win. I don’t know about you, but I certainly don’t have time for anything like that. There are plenty of places Republicans can look for some encouragement on election eve, but I don’t think this is one of them.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

BUSTER BLUTH WANTED FOR QUESTIONING
AP: “A lawnmower robot’s electronic cries for help foiled a thief’s plan to make off with the grass-cutting automaton. German police said Friday that a homeowner in the western town of Lippstadt was surprised on Tuesday evening with a smartphone message from the robot that it had flipped upside down. When he went outside to the lawn to check on the device, he spotted a thief with the robot tucked under his arm. Caught in the act, the thief dropped the robot and fled, according to police. Officers searched the area but did not locate a suspect. Police are calling for any possible witnesses to come forward. There was no word on whether the robot suffered damage in the incident.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Though disappointing, democracy’s failures among the collapsed autocracies of the developing world were understandable, given how difficult democratic transition has proved elsewhere.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) in a column excerpted from his 2017 essay “The Authoritarian Temptation,” published in his posthumous book, “The Point of It All,” published in the Washington Post on Nov. 8, 2019.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.