Smaller stage and sense of urgency could spark fireworks at Thursday’s 2020 debate

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Only 7 candidates have qualified for next Democratic debate

Who stands the best chance? Democratic strategist Malia Fisher and GOP strategist Lauren Claffey debate.

Seven Democratic presidential candidates face off Thursday night in Los Angeles in the final primary showdown of the year.

The debate comes with a sense of urgency: There’s less than seven weeks to go until Iowa’s caucuses kick off the presidential nominating calendar. Add to that a smaller setup – no previous debate had fewer than 10 candidates on the stage – and there’s likely to be a tighter and tenser feel than in previous encounters.

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Possibly making the debate even more contentious is the belief that rising star and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg got off too easy at last month’s fifth round Democratic debate.

And throw in the emergence of a feistier Sen. Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, who’s now more willing to take aim at her rivals as she’s seen her standing decline since the last showdown. Warren’s polling problems come as her fellow progressive standard-bearer Sen. Bernie Sanders, of Vermont, has seen his star shine once again. Could the peace between the two populist contenders and "Medicare-for-all" champions come crashing down?

“The candidates are recognizing that the days of the calendar are becoming fewer and fewer and that they need to shake things up and that starts with drawing clear contrasts with your opponents, especially when those candidates are taking votes away from your own candidacy,” veteran Democratic strategist Zac Petkanas emphasized.

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Also in the spotlight is former Vice President Joe Biden – the front-runner in national polling and part of the top tier of contenders in early-voting-state surveys.

Biden’s often complained about the size of the debates, saying there are too many candidates and not enough time to speak.

“A lot of people talk about debates. They’re not debates. They’re 60-second assertions,” the former vice president said earlier this month while campaigning in Iowa.

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Biden and the rest of the contenders on the stage  – Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, billionaire environmental and progressive advocate and organizer Tom Steyer, and tech-entrepreneur Andrew Yang – should enjoy considerable more speaking time than in past debates.

“This is the first debate where the top-tier candidates will get more speaking time and the opportunity to really lay out what their candidacy is all about,” noted Petkanas, director of rapid response for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

As the unrivaled or co-front-runner since he declared his candidacy in late April, Biden’s seen plenty of incoming fire at each of the five rounds of debates. While he’s sure to take more jabs in Los Angeles, some of his biggest debate critics won’t be on the stage. Sen. Kamala Harris, of California, ended her campaign earlier this month, and Sen. Cory Booker, of New Jersey, and former Housing secretary and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro failed to qualify for the debate.

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Buttigieg was expected to come under attack at last month’s debate – but the jabs never really materialized. But since the Atlanta showdown, the youngest contender in the field’s been targeted over his failure to resonate with African American voters, his tenure working for the controversial consulting firm McKinsey, and his closed-door top-dollar fundraisers.

With Warren leading the charge, Buttigieg was forced to respond – releasing details on his clients while consulting at McKinsey and opening his big donor fundraisers to press coverage.

The scrutiny may likely continue at the Los Angeles debate.

“If he doesn’t get more scrutiny now on the debate sage, I’m not sure when,” Petkanas said.

Warren – who once refused to criticize her rivals – has mixed up her playbook and now seems at ease with firing off at her rivals – especially Buttigieg and Biden – the two top-tier more moderate contenders.

“What we’ve seen from polling is that Pete Buttigieg is drawing directly from Elizabeth Warren. Now would be the time for Elizabeth Warren to show voters in Iowa and New Hampshire why her vision is different than that of the mayor from South Bend,” Petkanas emphasized.

But Warren’s refrained from criticizing Sanders. A big question heading into the debate is whether the gloves finally come off between the two rock stars of the left.

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For Klobuchar – who enjoyed rave reviews for her October and November debate performances – the December showdown is an opportunity grab some more momentum in Iowa, which neighbors her home state. She kicks off a jam-packed four-day swing through the first caucus state on Friday.

For Steyer and Yang  -- who will be standing at the sides of the stage – the longer debate with fewer candidates could bring opportunities for more speaking time – and more time to explains their proposals and paint contrasts with the leading contenders.

Hanging over the debate will be the candidates who didn’t qualify and the lack of diversity on the stage in a presidential primary field that earlier this cycle was the most diverse in history. Booker and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick – the two remaining black candidates – didn’t make the cut. Neither did Castro – the only Latino in the field. Yang – who’s Asian-American – will be the only non-white candidate on the stage. The lack of diversity is sure to be addressed by the PBS and Politico moderators and the candidates.

But the biggest question surrounding the debate is whether the showdown will actually matter.

“It remains to be seen if this debate will break the mold of past debates, which haven’t really shaken things up very much in the primary,” Petkanas highlighted.

Unlike the GOP presidential primary debates in 2016 -- and especially the 2012 cycle where it felt like there was a new front-runner after almost every debate – the 2020 Democratic primary debates have not been nearly as influential. The biggest moment to date – the Harris takedown of Biden in the first round of debates – gave the senator from California a brief bounce in the polls – but it didn’t last.

“There’s a real question mark on whether these debates are having any impact on the primary that we expect to have,” Petkanas added.

And with this debate being held on the eve of a holiday week, whatever impact it may have could be even further diluted.