Russia-Ukraine outcome presents little upside for Biden, but 'downside' possible: Strategists

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Political strategists on both sides of the aisle minimized the effect that the Russia-Ukraine crisis could have on the 2022 midterm elections, with the caveat that a Russian invasion could be seen as another foreign policy failure for President Biden.

Voters tend to vote on domestic issues, the strategists said, and while Biden could receive positive marks if he helps to avert disaster in Ukraine, it's unlikely his party would be able to translate it into electoral gains.

"It would be a good thing for him and a good thing for the country, but it’s not going to flip the fundamentals," Fox News contributor Karl Rove explained to Fox News Digital. "The fundamentals are so bad that the effect is not going to flip this thing. People are making a broader and bigger judgment about him." 

"I just don’t see this as a thing that will save him," he added. 

President Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022, in Washington.  (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Russia has amassed nearly 150,000 troops along its southwest border and deployed troops into allied Belarus. Russia continues to claim that it has no intention of invading neighboring Ukraine, but Biden says an attack could come in the next several days.

According to a January Fox News Poll, 54% of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance on foreign police.

Fox News Digital spoke with Democrat and Republican strategists about how the outcome may affect the upcoming midterms, and the opinion was almost unanimous from both sides: Biden would only feel negative outcomes from this crisis. Should he maintain the status quo, it will be just that: no change in his party’s fortunes come November this year. 

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Rove argued that Biden might see a "rally around the flag moment" if Putin did invade, but it wouldn’t be enough to help his party — a sentiment echoed by Democrat strategists.

"I think it’s neutral," Democrat strategist Jennifer Holdsworth said. "I have never received on Election Day a question about what is happening overseas with the exception of 2004 when we were newly involved in the Iraq conflict. … I think the entirety of the nation is still focused on economic factors right now." 

"I think the fact this is happening in February and not October, there is an exceedingly long time for developments to take place headed into the midterms, and I do not think this will be a net positive or a net negative — depending on how it plays out over the summer," Holdsworth, who has 20 years experience with campaigns, stressed. 

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Democrat strategist and Fox News contributor Leslie Marshall agreed, saying that "Russia and Ukraine are not going to impact the elections." 

"Americans largely are domestic-minded when they vote, and that transcends party lines whether they’re Democrats or Republicans," Marshall said. "The issues that Americans care most about — in addition to not being a foreign policy issue unless we’re involved militarily — they’re looking at the economy, they’re looking at COVID, restrictions, the gas pump, the supply chain. … I honestly don’t think it’s going to have any bearing." 

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Marshall acknowledged that if an invasion impacted energy prices and shipping again, it could drive some decisions at the polls in November, but she also highlighted that the Western world controls "50% of the world’s economy" while Russia and China together control half that much. 

Texas-based GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak, a former press secretary to two U.S. senators, labeled the crisis as "all downside for the White House." 

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"If Putin does back down, it would be a modest foreign policy victory for Biden, and it would likely strengthen NATO, which would be a good thing," Mackowiak said. "I doubt the Ukraine issue, if diplomatically resolved now, will matter much in the midterms nine months from now."

"However, if Russia's power and empire grow, it could be seen by voters as another foreign policy failure by this administration, following the Afghanistan debacle," he added. "If Biden were to stand up effectively to Putin, it could send a signal to China about their aggression in the South China Sea, but the opposite is more likely to happen."

Democrat strategists stressed that any invasion should not reflect on the U.S. president — whomever he or she is — but instead "rests squarely on the shoulders of Vladimir Putin." 

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"I think what makes those conversations more interesting is what you saw the president say over the weekend when he basically said to the people of Russia: ‘We are not against you; we have no problem with you,’" Democrat strategist and Fox News contributor Richard Fowler said. 

"That language was a very smart move by President Biden that this is not about America vs. Russia. This about Putin getting out of hand and trying to create an international crisis where there wasn’t one."