Investigations: It's a promise Republicans will be under pressure to keep if they take the House

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"Promises. Promises. Why do I believe?" – The new wave band Naked Eyes in 1983.

There are ads for automobiles that suggest that, if you buy a particular car, you’ll be a better parent.

Snickers commercials contend that you’ll "be yourself" and the hangries won’t convert you into a raging monster if you consume their meld of milk chocolate, peanuts and nougat.

Advertisements for body spray counsel guys that they’ll be a hit with the girls if they use their aerosol.

Promises. Promises.

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Promises are a part of politics, especially amid a furious push before the midterm elections.

House Republicans are in the minority. Odds favor Republicans to reclaim the majority for the first time since early 2019. Republicans thought they may see a tidal wave this fall. Experts then tempered those forecasts. The GOP should win the House. But no one knows by how many seats.

Over the summer, former House Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., prognosticated a staggering 70-seat pickup for the party.

The most Republicans to serve in the House in recent years came in 2015: 248. The Democrats hit 257 seats in 2009. Democrats controlled 292 seats in 1977. The most seats for any House majority was a staggering 322 for the Democrats in 1935.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan., right, and Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., arrive for a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on June 23, 2022. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images)

Republicans now hold 212 seats. Gingrich’s 70-seat pickup would put Republicans at an astronomical 282 seats.

Republicans rolled out a "Commitment to America" in late September. The document is a cousin of Gingrich’s "Contract with America," propounded in 1994. The GOP seized the House that midterm year for the first time in four decades. But there’s debate as to whether the Contract with America propelled the GOP to victory. Republicans also unveiled the "Pledge to America" ahead of the 2010 midterms. Republicans won back the House that year, capturing a record 63 seats.

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Gingrich’s Contract with America was a concrete document, spelling out 10 specific agenda items that his party would tackle in the first 100 days if Republicans captured the House. The document featured artfully worded provisions such as "The Personal Responsibility Act." It slashed benefits to those on welfare – simultaneously taking a swipe at what Republicans thought were freeloaders.

House Republicans wound up advancing most of the 10 tenets from the Contract with America. But many never saw the light of day in the Senate.

President Bill Clinton signed into law a version of the welfare reform package – even though he vetoed the original version. Congress overrode the president’s veto on a tort reform plan. The House failed to garner a two-thirds supermajority required for a Constitutional amendment to impose term limits.

FILE - House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Republicans are poised to win the House on election night. The better Republicans fare at the polls will help House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in his quest to become speaker next year.

But Republicans don’t have something as precise as Gingrich’s Contract with America. If the GOP claims the House, leaders have said vague things about addressing inflation and the economy – and cutting spending. However, some of the spending Republicans could trim include entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. That could be an issue.

The GOP has talked a lot about "securing the border." The most distinct thing Republicans have said they’ll do is pass a bill to eliminate the 87,000 IRS agents that Democrats plan to hire to investigate tax evasion. Republicans also vow to eliminate proxy voting in the House, imposed at the beginning of the pandemic. McCarthy wants Republicans to pass a "parents’ bill of rights" to combat interference from school boards and the federal government in education.

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After that, it’s off to the races with investigations. Expect probes into border security, the U.S.’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the origins of COVID — and lots about the business dealings of President Biden and Hunter Biden. The hearings will feature exhaustive conversations about the most famous laptop in the world.

Republicans may focus even more on their investigations because they could struggle to advance policy through the Senate – even if Republicans prevail there. Not much will get to President Biden’s desk without earning a veto.

FILE - President Biden speaks about inflation and supply chain issues in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

That’s why Republicans didn’t need specifics like a Contract with America this year. The base is expecting nothing short of full-throttle investigations — which may even wind up in the impeachment of multiple members of the Biden administration. That’s to say nothing of the possibility of impeachment for the president himself. Those inquests will command a lot of support among right-wing Republicans. But that’s where things could get problematic for McCarthy. This could backfire on Republicans if they push too hard on probes and hearings.

"It’s going to be a balancing act," counseled former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., who chaired the Oversight panel when he was in Congress. "Don’t go off the deep end and try to stay within the 40-yard lines in terms of your questions."

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However, some Republicans — like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. — want to go for broke. Greene and others are products of McCarthy. The California Republican has generally shown fealty to Greene – just the way he did with former President Trump. McCarthy eschews internal confrontation. McCarthy’s tendency to "go along to get along" may not, as Davis says, keep things within the 40-yard lines.

The issue for McCarthy may hinge on the prospective size of a Republican majority. A smaller majority probably makes it harder for McCarthy to manage his conference.

This brings us to the future of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Pelosi keeps her own counsel and hasn’t tipped her hand about the possibility she may depart at the end of this Congress. But multiple House Democratic sources suggest that Pelosi may not be ready to hang it up. They say the energy level and level of engagement of the speaker betrays her 82 years of age.

FILE - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks at a press conference. (Getty Images)

Many House Democrats canvassed privately by Fox a few weeks ago largely thought Pelosi would retire at the end of this Congress. But others aren’t so sure.

They concede they don’t know Pelosi’s thinking — but they know how she thinks.

They believe it’s possible that the attack on Pelosi’s husband could embolden the speaker to stay. In other words, Pelosi won’t allow an attack on a family member to define the end of her career. One source believed that if Paul Pelosi is recovering successfully, the speaker may opt to stay because it would defy those who have it in for her. The source said some may interpret a departure now as a sign of weakness. But sticking around would underscore Pelosi’s resolve and courage.

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Fox is also told that Pelosi’s future may boil down to the math. If she wants to stay and has the votes, Pelosi could stay. Moreover, a narrow Republican House majority may mean that Pelosi is more likely to remain.

What’s unknown is if the speaker says anything before attending the global climate conference in Egypt — or even goes — because of her husband. The speaker was slated to fly to Sharm El-Sheikh at the end of this week.

Nothing is compelling Pelosi to announce her plans any time soon. Internal House Democratic leadership elections won’t hit until the end of the month or early December.

To return to our original premise, Pelosi hasn’t "promised" anything.

Meantime, Republicans promised something.

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The Commitment to America shows voters that a potential GOP majority has a roadmap. But it’s not a detailed one. The lack of specifics may actually be a blessing for Republicans. The party can promise a lot — but not have to make good on a lot. Gingrich’s Contract With America locked in the party to a set agenda. Democrats were able to boomerang those issues on the GOP in 1995.

There’s a reason why President Clinton cruised to re-election in 1996 and Gingrich was out of power by early 1999.

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So, Republicans have made some promises but not promises so grandiose they may struggle to keep.

The problem for the GOP — if the party wins the House — is what voters expect. Voters will expect inflation to disappear instantly. The Marjorie Taylor Greene bloc of the party will be outraged if the House hasn’t impeached President Biden by spring.

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Managing expectations is always a challenge in politics. Perhaps that’s why it’s wise not to promise too much.