Poll reveals battleground state voters prefer Trump over Biden in heated 2024 contest

With seven months to go until the presidential election, former President Donald Trump tops President Biden in all but one of the crucial battleground states that will likely decide their 2024 rematch, according to new polling.

A Wall Street Journal survey released Tuesday indicated Trump with the edge over the president in six of the seven states polled: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

According to the survey, Trump holds a six-point lead over Biden in North Carolina in a ballot that also includes third-party and independent candidates. Trump has a five-point lead in Arizona, a four-point edge in Nevada, and three-point advantages in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The former president edges the White House incumbent by a single point in Georgia, with the two tied in Wisconsin.

Trump held similar leads when those questioned were given a head-to-head matchup between the former president and Biden.

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Biden narrowly edged Trump in all the battlegrounds tested, other than North Carolina, to win the White House four years ago.

A new Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania illustrated a different result in the crucial battleground. The survey indicated Biden topping Trump by 10 points in a head-to-head showdown. But the president's lead shrank to just two points when voters were asked about a multi-candidate field.

The survey was conducted March 20-31, with a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

According to the Wall Street Journal survey, along with coming in second to Trump among most voters, Biden's job performance rating as president in all seven battleground states remained in negative territory. On the flip side, voters in every state sampled except Nevada had a favorable opinion of Trump's time in the White House.

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When asked about specific issues, respondents said they trust Trump to handle the economy and immigration over Biden. The Democrat president, however, was the preferred candidate to deal with the issue of abortion.

The polling results also mirror recent concerns over the president's physical fitness. About 48% of voters believe the 77-year-old Trump is more fit to serve as president, while only 28% view the 81-year-old Biden as having the mental and physical fitness to serve another four-year term as president.

First lady Jill Biden was asked about Biden's dismal WSJ polling results on "CBS Mornings" on Wednesday, but dismissed the dismal results, saying, "No, he's not losing in all the battleground states. He's coming up."

The WSJ poll was conducted March 17 to 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

A national survey from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist on Wednesday indicated Biden edging Trump by two percentage points on the general election ballot. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 50% of likely voters said Biden, while 48% support Trump in his third straight presidential bid. 

While the Democratic incumbent in the White House secured a narrow advantage in the poll, four in 10 of those surveyed said their minds could change ahead of the November election.

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Among independent voters, however, Trump led Biden by seven points, 52% to 45%.

"The presidential contest remains close, but there are some interesting twists which run counter to the conventional wisdom," Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said alongside the polling results. "Three points to note: first, about four in 10 voters are not rock solid in their choice for president; second, Biden supporters are slightly more locked in; and third, Democrats are more cohesive in their positions on the issues."

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll was conducted from March 25 to 28 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters had similar findings. Biden and Trump were deadlocked at 50%, although the president held a four-point advantage over his Republican predecessor among the smaller sample of those likely to vote in the presidential election.

The survey was conducted March 18-28, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

In another key metric – fundraising – Biden currently enjoys the upper hand when it comes to the among of money in his campaign coffers.

Trump and the Republican National Committee announced hauling in $65.6 million in fundraising in March and ended the month with $93.1 million in cash on hand.

Biden's campaign has not yet announced its March fundraising haul, but reported raising $53 million in February and ending the month with $155 million cash on hand. 

The president's re-election campaign has not yet announced its March fundraising haul, but it's expected to be significant, after the campaign said it hauled in over $26 million last month at a fundraising gala with Biden and former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at New York City's famed Radio City Music Hall, which was a new single event fundraising record.

The Biden-Trump rematch offers up stark contrasts when it comes to their style and demeanor, and on where they stand on key issues, such as the economy, health care and entitlements, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, the war in Ukraine, and America's overseas role going forward.

Biden, who four years ago made history as the oldest American ever elected president, will continue to face questions about his mental and physical durability, even after last month's vigorous State of the Union address.

The president also needs to show that he can energize younger voters, progressives, and Black and Latino Americans, who are all key parts of the Democratic base. Biden is also facing primary ballot box protests - materializing in "uncommitted" votes - over his support for Israel in its war in Gaza against Hamas.

The former president is also dealing with plenty of problems. 

Trump, who last year made history as the first president or former president to face criminal charges, now faces four major trials and a total of 91 indictments – including federal cases on his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and on handling classified documents. There's also a $355 million civil fraud judgment that Trump is appealing. He will have to juggle his appearances in court with his time on the campaign trail. 

Trump will also need to court the sizable block of Republican voters who backed Nikki Haley in the GOP nomination race. The former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina governor was Trump's last remaining rival before ending her White House campaign last month. Haley's support is shining a spotlight on Trump's weakness with suburban and highly educated voters.

Complicating matters further – the presidential rematch between Biden and Trump won't be a two-candidate race.

Democratic-turned-Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is working to place his name on state ballots across the country. Kennedy, a longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic who's a scion of the famous Kennedy political dynasty, is grabbing double-digits in many general election polls.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive independent candidate Cornell West are polling in the single digits. And the centrist group No Labels is moving ahead with plans to launch a third party "unity" presidential ticket.

While third party and independent candidates didn't play much of a role in the 2020 presidential election, they did in the 2016 showdown between Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. And they may again in 2024.

Fox News' Andrew Mark Miller contributed to this report.

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