Ohio abortion vote this November considered 2024 presidential bellwether by Democrats, Republicans

Democrats and Republicans alike reportedly consider an Ohio abortion vote scheduled this November a bellwether issue ahead of the 2024 presidential election. 

Ohio voters will decide this fall whether the right to an abortion should be added to the state constitution, after officials said Tuesday that enough signatures were gathered to get the proposal on the ballot. However, it's an open question how much support the amendment will need to pass, as Republican lawmakers have set a special election next month on whether to raise the threshold from a simple majority to 60%. 

The state vote a year after Roe v Wade was overturned will likely be viewed on the national level as a litmus test on the abortion issue ahead of the 2024 election.

"Seeing this level of enthusiasm in Ohio shows that this is going to be a salient issue and is an issue that is top of mind for voters no matter where they live," Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations at NARAL-Pro Choice America, told The Hill. 

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Stitzlein pointed to a new USA Today Network/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters in Ohio that found the amendment guaranteeing access to reproductive services backed by a double-digit margin, 58%-32%. 

"It’s another data point in what we have seen since the Dobbs ruling last June, is that the decision by the Supreme Court and the subsequent actions that Republican, anti-abortion lawmakers have been making are totally out of step with the American people," Stitzlein said.  

Pro-life activists in Ohio argued the survey does not tell the full story of what's happening on the ground in the Buckeye State. 

"In November, voters will look more closely at the proposed amendment and see that it covers more than just abortion by its own language," Mark Weaver, an Ohio-based GOP strategist, told The Hill. "The poll doesn’t ask them that."  

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The Ohio measure would establish "a fundamental right to reproductive freedom" with "reasonable limits." 

In language similar to a constitutional amendment that Michigan voters approved last November, it would require restrictions imposed past a fetus’ viability outside the womb – which was the standard under Roe v. Wade – to be based on evidence of patient health and safety benefits, according to The Associated Press.

The proposed amendment states that "every individual has a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one’s own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion." 

"Nowhere in the entire amendment does the word ‘woman’ appear," Amy Natoce, press secretary at Protect Women Ohio, a pro-life coalition, told The Hill. "The word ‘adult’ is not used anywhere. There is no mention whatsoever of age restrictions. Instead, the ACLU and its attorneys who wrote the amendment intentionally chose the very broad word ‘individuals.’"  

Protect Women Ohio has committed $25 million in ads in opposition of the amendment. One of the advertisements released in May includes video of President Biden stating, "There’s no such thing as someone else’s child" and ends with the slogan, "They’re coming for your parental rights."

The group has argued that the broad language of the amendment could eliminate parental consent for abortions and transgender surgeries for minors. 

Secretary of State Frank LaRose determined Tuesday that Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights submitted nearly 496,000 valid signatures, comfortably enough to put the amendment before voters on Nov. 7. The coalition had submitted more than 700,000 signatures.

The Aug. 8 special election called by Statehouse Republicans would also eliminate the 10-day curing period when citizen-led campaigns may submit additional signatures if they fall short the first time, and increase the number of counties where signatures must be collected from 44 to all 88. But those provisions would come too late to impact the abortion issue, which has already faced both legal and administrative hurdles to now be poised for a vote.

"They want to prevent Ohioans from being able to vote on reproductive freedom because they are seeing what we are seeing, which is a majority of Ohioans are saying they will vote yes on reproductive freedom in November," Lauren Blauvelt, vice president of government affairs and public advocacy at Planned Parenthood Advocates of Ohio, told The Hill. 

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Abortion remains legal in the state up to 20 weeks’ gestation, under a judge’s order issued in a lawsuit challenging legislation that would restrict abortion once a fetal heartbeat can be detected, or around six weeks into pregnancy. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, a Republican, has asked the state Supreme Court to overturn the stay.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.