With Labor Day over, the final sprint underway in battle for control of Congress and state governments

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GOP Senate candidate 'underdog' says midterms will be a referendum on Joe Biden

Colorado Senate candidate Joe O'Dea says his opponents are trying to paint him as 'far-right' and focus on abortion while he argues inflation and crime are the top issues.

Tuesday marks nine weeks until the 2022 elections, and after a summer where they appeared to lose their momentum heading into November’s midterms, Republicans are ready for a reset.

With Labor Day – which traditionally marks the beginning of the general election campaign – now in the rearview mirror, the final sprint in the battle for control of the House, Senate, governorships, statewide offices and legislatures is officially underway.

At the start of the summer, Republicans were energized as they pushed to regain the House and Senate majorities, enjoying historical headwinds (the party that wins the White House traditionally suffers setbacks in the ensuing midterm elections) as well as a favorable political climate fueled by skyrocketing gas prices, record inflation, soaring crime, and parents discontent with their children’s schools following pandemic shutdowns. 

The climate, capsulated by President Biden’s cratering poll numbers, put the Democrats on the defensive.

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President Joe Biden speaks during an event at Henry Maier Festival Park in Milwaukee, Monday, Sept. 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

But with Democrats energized following a string of ballot box successes this summer in the wake of the blockbuster move by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority to upend the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling and send the combustible issue of legalized abortion back to the states – in addition to the summer-long easing of gas prices, a string of major legislative victories for Democrats in Congress, and the president’s rising (but still underwater) approval ratings – what once seemed like a GOP electoral tidal wave in November has been dramatically downsized by political handicappers.

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Also complicating matters for Republicans is former President Donald Trump, who’s dominated headlines this summer thanks to the House select committee’s investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by right wing extremists and other Trump supporters amid congressional certification of Biden’s 2020 Electoral College victory, and courtesy of the FBI search last month of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida for classified materials. 

The developments have fueled Trump’s repeated re-litigating of the 2020 election, which has served as a distraction for Republicans hoping to spotlight the nation’s economic ills. They’ve also fed Biden ammunition to attack what he called the "extremism" of "MAGA Republicans," as part of his strategy to turn what traditionally is a referendum election on the president and his performance into a choice election between Biden and Trump.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 3, 2022. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

After a summer that saw Democratic candidates and groups mostly out raise their GOP counterparts and dominate the airwaves with campaign commercials, the Republicans are starting to fight back.

The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing Republican Senate incumbents and candidates, on Tuesday launched a massive nine-figure ad blitz in five key Senate battlegrounds – Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, as well as continuing its spots in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The group’s strategy: to portray Democratic incumbents and candidates as too far to the left, and tie them to Biden and the continued high prices Americans are paying.

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"Democrats spent the summer selling a consultant crafted alternate reality that doesn’t square with their voting records. This fall we’ll furiously litigate Democrats’ records of enabling the Biden agenda and making Americans’ quality of life worse," Senate Leadership Fund spokesman Jack Pandol said.

The Senate is currently split 50/50 between the two major parties, but the Democrats control the majority thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. That means the GOP needs a net gain of just one seat to regain the majority they lost when they were swept in the Jan. 5, 2021, twin Senate runoffs in Georgia.

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But a war of words in recent weeks between McConnell, the longtime Senate Republican leader, and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did the GOP no favors. 

McConnell, lamenting the "candidate quality" of some Republican nominees who were backed by Trump and firmly support the former president’s repeated unproven claims that his 2020 loss to Biden was due to a "rigged" and "stolen" election, lowered expectations that the GOP would win back the majority. Scott, whose strategy in steering the Senate Republicans re-election arm has been severely questioned in recent months, pushed back, criticizing what he called "trash-talking" of candidates that is hurting "the conservative cause."

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While a GOP takeover of the Senate is far from a done deal, political prognosticators still predict that Republicans will win back the House, although by a smaller margin than earlier forecast by handicappers. The GOP needs a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member chamber in November’s midterms to win back the majority they lost in the 2018 elections.

Thirty-six states hold gubernatorial contests this November, and the GOP’s looking to increase their control of governor’s offices, as well as other statewide executive positions such as at attorney general and secretary of state. Republicans are also aiming to expand their hold of state legislative chambers.