Incumbency advantages grow in era of weak parties

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Obama set to endorse Biden in video message, sources say

Former President Obama is reportedly ready to give his long-awaited endorsement in the 2020 presidential race; Peter Doocy reports.

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On the roster: Incumbency advantages grow in era of weak parties - Obama endorses Biden - GOP botches Wisconsin - New York, California form corona coalitions - But Mommmmmmm…

INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGES GROW IN ERA OF WEAK PARTIES
When we talk about the advantages of incumbency, the events of Monday sum it up pretty neatly.

On the one hand, you have the incumbent president saying things about federal authority that would, from a Democratic president, an advisor to a Democratic president in an anonymous quote or a passerby at a bus stop provoke the kind of furious James-Madison-quoting eruption that would have made Ted Cruz shave his beard in protest and shut down the government for a week.

But the response to the president saying he has “total control” over how states respond to emergencies — and could even force governors to repeal emergency measures if he wished — was, ahem, muted. Poor Mike Pence would have passed out if Barack Obama had posse comitatus-ed Indiana. Or remember when Rick Perry sympathized with Texans who were ready to secede from the union over… wait for it… excessive federal deficit spending?

On the other hand, you have the presumptive Democratic nominee who gets no respect — like Rodney Dangerfield when he asked his father to take him ice fishing and he told him to wait until the weather got warmer.

The moves by former President Barack Obama and Biden’s runner-up, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, to offer full-throated endorsements of Biden so early in the process may look like power moves, but they’re exactly the opposite.

Biden has no control of his party and is by no means its leader. Democrats nationally would be far more likely to look to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or the governors of large states for leadership before they would look to Biden.

That’s only partly due to Biden’s relative weakness as a presumptive nominee. It’s also about the unusual circumstances of this plague-year election. But more than either, it’s about the asymmetrical advantages in re-election cycles, especially in our era of weak parties and strong partisanship.

If you doubt us, try a thought experiment. Imagine that Biden had said something as radically transgressive of progressive beliefs as Trump did about the conservative shibboleth of decentralized authority and the 10th Amendment.

Let's say Biden held a press conference and declared in a loud, angry way that health care was not a right, but rather a service that should be governed by market forces in the manner of other products.

Would the response be an oblique factual correction from a congresswoman? Some light pooh-poohing from intellectuals? More like absolute, innards-boiling outrage. Biden would at once be in danger of losing the nomination. It would be a moral panic.

Now, let’s stipulate the obvious here. Republicans at all levels have long grown accustomed to Trump’s verbal excesses. And since back in the early days when Republicans in Congress eye-rolled Trump’s demand to abolish the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, they have learned to take him neither literally nor seriously about some things.

If Trump were to start ordering New York barbershops to start cutting hair again or withholding relief to states that did not comply, the response would likely be far more intense.

Let’s also acknowledge that it has ever been thus: Incumbent presidents are the leaders of their parties. Even in the time when parties were strong and partisanship was much weaker, presidents were still the stud ducks.

But it’s more intense now. Just look at how the RNC fed itself to the Trump campaign months ago and how state parties rigged the primary calendar to avoid potential embarrassments. Obama was something of a sun king himself eight years ago, but Trump is the party and the party is Trump. 

So if Republicans have an organizing principal in Trump, what have Democrats got? Some organizing principles and not much else.

With the possibility that Biden may be officially nominated in a glorified Zoom meeting instead of a convention, what does the Democratic Party do for him? It’s broke, has no clout with voters and no way to enforce discipline on the politicians who constitute its upper echelons. Outside of ballot access it’s kind of a joke. There’s no establishment, so nothing gets established.

The selling point of parties in the early days of the republic was that they would act as mediating institutions – protections against demagogues and the cults of personality that had been the demise of previous experiments in self-government.  What’s the selling point for the two parties now?  

Trump obviously gets the bad with the good here, though.

His original formulation that it’s up to governors to direct emergency responses in their states was not just more in keeping with the Constitution, but politically advantageous, as well.

Under the new uber-executive construction, Trump will be deemed responsible for every mistake in either direction. He will have to backtrack from his position as bad outcomes present themselves. The Al Haig routine will then give way to a guy who was just trying his best to help facilitate the real decision makers on the state and local level.

But whatever he says, Trump will be removed or returned based on how the public perceives he performed in this pandemic and reversing the economic cratering he deemed necessary in order to fight it. Incumbency is a pass/fail test.

But in the meantime, Biden will be a lion tamer in a cage with cats who know there are blanks in the pistol. 

THE RULEBOOK: IN YOUR FACE!
“It would be easy to show, if it were necessary, that no important power, delegated by the articles of Confederation, has been or can be executed by Congress, without recurring more or less to the doctrine of CONSTRUCTION or IMPLICATION.” – James Madison, Federalist No. 44

TIME OUT: NOAH’S ARCHETYPE
The Writer’s Almanac: “It was on this day in 1828 that Noah Webster’s American Dictionary of the English Language was published. Webster put together the dictionary because he wanted Americans to have a national identity that wasn’t based on the language and ideas of England. And the problem wasn’t just that Americans were looking to England for their language; it was that they could barely communicate with each other because regional dialects differed so drastically. …it was Webster who took the letter ‘u’ out of English words like colour and honour; he took a ‘g’ out of waggon, a ‘k’ off the end of musick, and switched the order of the ‘r’ and ‘e’ in theatre and centre. In 1801, he started compiling his dictionary. Part of what he accomplished, much like his textbook, was standardizing spelling. He introduced American words, some of them derived from Native American languages: skunk, squash, wigwam, hickory, opossum, lengthy, and presidential, Congress, and caucus, which were not relevant in England’s monarchy.”

Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.

SCOREBOARD 
TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE 
Average approval: 46 percent
Average disapproval: 49 percent
Net Score: -3 percent
Change from one week ago: ↓ 3.6 points
[Average includes: Fox News: 49% approve - 49% disapprove; Monmouth University: 46% approve - 49% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 45% approve - 51% disapprove; CNBC: 46% approve - 43% disapprove; CNN: 44% approve - 53% disapprove.]

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OBAMA ENDORSES BIDEN
Fox News: “Former President Barack Obama on Tuesday formally endorsed Joe Biden – his vice president and running mate through two terms and presidential campaigns – in the looming race against President Trump... Obama made the announcement in a statement and video posted on social media. ‘Choosing Joe to be my vice president was one of the best decisions I ever made, and he became a close friend. And I believe Joe has all the qualities we need in a president right now,’ Obama said. Pointing to the severe challenges the nation faces as it copes with the coronavirus pandemic, the former president said that ‘Joe has the character and the experience to guide us through one of our darkest times and heal us through a long recovery.’ … And Obama stressed that Biden's a stronger presidential contender after surviving an historic primary field that peaked at some 25 White House hopefuls.”

The backstory - NYT: “Over the past year, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and former President Barack Obama practiced a political distancing of sorts… Then, in the weeks after it became clear that Mr. Biden was the party’s near-certain nominee, Mr. Obama — telling a friend he needed to “accelerate the endgame” — had at least four long conversations with his former vice president’s remaining rival, Senator Bernie Sanders. Mr. Obama’s efforts to ease the senator out of the race played a significant role in his decision to end his bid and, on Monday, endorse Mr. Biden, according to people close to the Vermont independent. … It is a negotiation between friends, but a delicate one. The terms of the reunion, however welcome, are complicated by an intermingling of political and personal issues…”

Biden to announce veep search team by end of April - NBC News: “Based on conversations with multiple Biden advisers, allies and other influential Democrats, the former vice president has not tipped his hand about any specific individual. … Some speculate that the twin health and economic crises could bolster the case for candidates on his short list like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, or to a lesser extent Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who have Washington experience and demonstrated in the course of the Democratic primaries a fluency in the kinds of issues Biden would confront. … California Sen. Kamala Harris last week joined Biden for a virtual fundraiser. … Another potential finalist, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer… By month’s end, Biden will formally announce the team to oversee that process…”

Pro-Biden super PAC releases new attack ad - ABC News: “The top super PAC backing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is continuing to bombard President Donald Trump on the airwaves with a new ad set to start running in key battleground states on Tuesday targeting the president’s coronavirus response. The new 30-second spot from Priorities USA, titled ‘Front Lines’ contrasts statements the president has made at White House press briefings and in Fox News interviews downplaying the need for certain resources amid the pandemic with clips of doctors and nurses sounding the alarm about supply shortages of personal protective equipment, such as masks and ventilators.”

Early win broadens electoral map - Axios: “If Biden can keep his current leads over Trump in general-election matchups, it could create opportunities for pickups of three big states — Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. That’s without hurting Dems' chances to take back Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the key wins that sent Trump to the White House in 2016. The Real Clear Politics national polling average shows that either Biden (+5.9%) or Sanders (+4.2%) would have been positioned to defeat Trump if the election were held today, but the role of the Electoral College means the results will come down to a handful of key states. Sanders' endorsement of Biden on Monday shows a quick turn toward unity for Democrats. In 2016, it took Sanders until July to endorse Hillary Clinton. It's still too early to know whether the coronavirus pandemic will make voters more or less likely to rally around Trump come November…”

Key battleground states for 2020 will be hit hard by virus - Bloomberg: “The booming economy Trump hoped to ride to a second term is collapsing – with some forecasting a national unemployment rate as high as 30% – and the trifecta of states that delivered him the presidency will likely bear the brunt. Michigan, which Trump won in 2016 by 10,704 votes, now ranks just behind New York and New Jersey in the number of coronavirus deaths, with 1,479 fatalities as of Monday. Pennsylvania, which has the fourth-largest number of coronavirus cases, ranked first in the nation in percentage of new unemployment claims in the last two weeks of March. He carried the Keystone State by 44,292 votes in 2016.”

Biden pulls ahead in Arizona - OH Predictive Insights: “As Arizona residents endure a stay-at-home order and thousands of people suffer from coronavirus, President Donald Trump continues to fall in a head-to-head matchup with former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden has expanded his lead over Trump in the April edition of OHPI’s Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), now leading the president 52 to 43 with 5 percent of voters undecided. This nine-point advantage for Biden is a sign the former vice president continues to gain traction in a historically ruby-red state. After a December poll showed Biden trailing the president, capping off a summer and autumn of decline for the vice president, he jumped to a six point lead in March and has increased that margin an additional three points in the month since.”

And he leads in Virginia - VCU Poll: “Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points among likely voters in Virginia. When likely voters were asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 51% said Joe Biden, while 41% said Donald Trump. This represents an increase in support for Biden of 7 percentage points since our last reporting in December 2019. Gender and level of education are significant to the vote choice. Women prefer Joe Biden by 21 percentage points (57% Biden/36% Trump) and men prefer Trump by 4 percentage points (48% Trump/44% Biden).”

GOP BOTCHES WISCONSIN
NYT: “Democrats scored a significant victory in Wisconsin on Monday night when a liberal challenger upset a Trump-backed incumbent to win a State Supreme Court seat, a down-ballot race that illustrated strong turnout and vote-by-mail efforts in a presidential battleground state. The victory, by upward of 120,000 votes as of Monday night, came as a shock to Republicans and Democrats alike in Wisconsin, where contests for president, governor and the state’s high court in the last four years have all been decided by about 30,000 votes or less. It followed weeks of Democratic anger over Republicans’ insistence on holding elections amid the coronavirus pandemic. Wisconsin’s map on Monday night looked like a dream general election result for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee — stronger than typical for Democrats in the suburbs and a respectable showing among the state’s blue-collar white voters in rural counties. But officials from both parties cautioned against overinterpreting the Supreme Court results, given the bizarre circumstances surrounding the high court race.”

Republicans closing gap in California special House election - Cook Political Report: “California, during a pandemic, would be an unlikely place and time for a GOP upset. …Trump's approval rating has barely budged since November 2018, when Democrat Katie Hill ousted GOP Rep. Steve Knight by seven points in California's 25th district. But a month out from the May 12 all vote-by-mail special election to replace Hill, both parties view the race between Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith and Republican former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia as a nail biter. This is a rare case in which both parties ended up with solid, impressive candidates who are straight out of central casting for the district. The 25th CD takes in northern Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita, and has recently trended blue…”

NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA FORM CORONA COALITIONS
NPR: “The governors of New York and California — two of the largest economies in the U.S. — have formed alliances with their respective neighbors to coordinate an eventual easing of COVID-19 shutdowns, posing a potential new obstacle to President Trump's plans to restart the national economy. In separate announcements, the governors said they've agreed to let science, not politics, determine when to lift social and business restrictions. … The governors say the measures they're taking to combat COVID-19 and slow its spread won't be effective unless they're all on the same page. But the president — who had previously spoken of restarting the U.S. economy by Easter — insists that he has the authority to open states' economies. One of the coalitions aligns New York with New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Delaware. In the other, California is collaborating with its coastal neighbors, Oregon and Washington, to decide when they will lift stay-at-home orders and other restrictions.”

Noem under fire as South Dakota outbreak harms food supply - WaPo: “As governors across the country fell into line in recent weeks, South Dakota’s top elected leader stood firm: There would be no statewide order to stay home. Such edicts to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Gov. Kristi L. Noem said disparagingly, reflected a ‘herd mentality.’ It was up to individuals — not government — to decide whether ‘to exercise their right to work, to worship and to play. Or to even stay at home.’ And besides, the first-term Republican told reporters at a briefing this month, ‘South Dakota is not New York City.’ But now South Dakota is home to one of the largest single coronavirus clusters anywhere in the United States, with more than 300 workers at a giant ­pork-processing plant falling ill. With the case numbers continuing to spike, the company was forced to announce the indefinite closure of the facility Sunday, threatening the U.S. food supply.”

Thousands of cities prepare for budget shortfalls -WaPo: “More than 2,100 U.S. cities are anticipating major budget shortfalls this year and many are planning to slash programs and cut staff in response, according to a survey of local officials released Tuesday, illustrating the widespread financial havoc threatened by the coronavirus pandemic. The bleak outlook — shared by local governments representing roughly 93 million people nationwide — led some top mayors and other leaders to call for greater federal aid to protect cities now forced to choose between balancing their cash-strapped ledgers and sustaining the public services that residents need most. ‘There’s no question that the coronavirus pandemic has had, and will have, a major impact on cities of all sizes,’ said Clarence Anthony, the executive director of the National League of Cities.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
State Dept. cables reported issues with safety practices in Wuhan labs - WaPo

Census Bureau wants to delay deadlines for the 2020 head count due to virus - AP

Report: Independent Rep. Justin Amash looking into White House run - WaPo

House Dems push for using automatic stabilizers - Roll Call

Mishkin President Trump, here's what to ignore - Fox News

AUDIBLE: FROM THE TOP ROPE
“As a brand that has been woven into the fabric of society, WWE and its Superstars bring families together and deliver a sense of hope, determination and perseverance.” – A statement from WWE after Florida established the sport as an “essential business.”

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“It seems that whoever you listen to they have a projection about the Coronavirus. The projections are only as good as the data used. I have a modest example. A few years ago I was on a weight loss campaign for a month. I plotted up the weight vs date and did a linear regression analysis. Extrapolating this regression to zero that by April 17 I would cease to exist. The old saying that figures do not lie but liars do figure. How true.” – Dick Watkins, Chandler, Ariz.

[Ed. note: Good point, Mr. Watkins! And we are glad you didn’t see it through until the end… This is supposed to be a key advantage for the republican and federal forms of government. Science and reason can and should guide us, but at certain points, leaders must make decisions with incomplete information. And very often there are lots of answers that would be wrong and none that would be exactly “right.” By delegating time-limited authority to our fellow citizens, Americans have to trust that their leaders will make good decisions. This is why voters are right to care so much about candidates’ personal attributes and character. Very often the hardest challenges have nothing to do with pre-existing policy prescriptions. The 2000 election was litigated over how to use the budget surplus (lolz) not militant Islamism. The 2016 election was litigated over which candidate was the most unfit for office, not pandemic response. In a republic, we chose people more than policies. And in a federated republic we preserve safeguards by not putting all the power in one place. The states function as firewalls against excessive or misguided central government. This is one of the main reasons I’m so sincere in my support for the repeal of the populist 17th Amendment, which took the power to choose senators away from state legislatures in favor of direct election. The House was intended to represent and preserve the rights of the people, while the Senate was to represent the interests of the states -- making the counterbalance against the threat of federal tyranny stronger. Washington’s balance of power between the branches is way out of whack, but so too is the balance between the feds and the states. Too little competition for power increases the chances of catastrophic decisions made by too few people with too much of it.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

BUT MOMMMMMMM…
KCCI: “Iowa teenagers who want to get their driver's permit now have a new option. Never before has the Iowa Department of Transportation allowed parents to proctor the web-based knowledge portion of the test. The Iowa Department of Transportation started the 'Skip the Trip' program last year. It allows students to take the non-commercial driver's knowledge test at an approved educational site. The DOT is now expanding it to allow parents and guardians to proctor the exam in their house. They just need a valid Iowa driver's license and have to submit an application. Right now, driver’s tests are on hold until May 1 due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The DOT says the date is flexible given the pandemic.”

AND NOW A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Halley’s [Comet] speaks to me especially acutely. As it turns around the sun, the midpoint on its journey, I will be marking the midpoint in mine, or so say the Metropolitan Life tables. Our perihelions match.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Dec. 13, 1985.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.