How a lone Nebraska district could decide the presidential election

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A single congressional district in the state of Nebraska could wind up playing a critical role in deciding the outcome of this year’s presidential election.

"It could decide who the eventual winner will be," Jimmy Keady, president of JLK Political Strategies, a national Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

That district, which encompasses Omaha and the Council Bluffs metropolitan area, could play an outsized role in determining the next president thanks to Nebraska’s unique way of dividing up its Electoral College votes. Unlike most states that have winner-take-all systems, Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote to the candidate who wins each of its three congressional districts, while the winner of the state overall receives the remaining two votes.

Nebraska has long been forgotten about in presidential politics thanks to its longtime solidly red disposition, making it a rarely talked about location on a map full of critical swing states. 

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on Sept. 2, 2024 in Pittsburgh. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

However, that red reputation does not always hold true in the 2nd Congressional District, which has swung back and forth in recent elections. President Biden took the district and its one electoral vote in 2020, while former President Donald Trump emerged with a victory in the district in 2016. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, won the district during his 2012 bid for president, but former President Barack Obama captured the electoral vote in 2008.

The Second Congressional District’s lone vote has never been the deciding factor in an election, but in a year in which the presidential race looks as close as ever, it could end up playing a decisive role.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures as he departs a campaign event at Central Wisconsin Airport on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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"With swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin continuing to be labeled as tossups and a potential 269-269 Electoral College, Republicans should prioritize securing this seat that could get them the necessary 270," Keady said.

Though such a scenario remains unlikely, a look at the election map shows a path to the Omaha area’s potential deciding role. If Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the "Blue Wall" swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while former President Donald Trump secures all the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, as well as a swing district in the similarly positioned state of Maine, the Electoral College vote would stand at 269-268 for Harris. 

A Harris win in the district gets her to the needed 270 and an election victory, while Trump taking the district would result in a 269-269 tie and send an already dramatic election to the House of Representatives.

Playing such a role might just be fitting for the district, which is one of only seven in the country, the Cook Political Report gives a Partisan Voting Index Score of "EVEN," meaning the district traditionally votes in line with the national electorate.

This map shows a hypothetical situation in which Nebraska's Second Congressional District holds the key to who wins the election. (270 To Win)

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That fact will not be lost on Republicans, Keady argued.

"With the Democrats propping up a nominee that has not earned a single vote on the national stage, Republicans have the opportunity to make a play to win this seat for President Trump," Keady said. "By staying focused on kitchen table issues that move voters to the right – the economy, illegal immigration, and public safety – Republicans have a good shot at picking up this seat and securing the presidency."