New House Democrats’ re-election arm chair faces challenge holding ‘vulnerable’ majority

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Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney faces a very tough task moving forward.

The congressman from New York’s lower Hudson River valley was elected Thursday by House Democrats as incoming chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. His mission – to protect his party's razor thin majority in the chamber in 2022, when traditionally the party that holds the White House loses dozens of seats in Congress.

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Taking to Twitter after his victory, Maloney urged the progressive and moderate wings of his conference that “it’s time for House Democrats to unite and go forward together. We need a unified front to win in 2022. We will protect this majority... for the people.”

Maloney, who in 2012 became the first openly gay man elected to Congress from New York State, defeated Rep. Tony Cardenas of California by vowing to repeat nationally his success in a district carried by President Trump in 2016.

Democrats stormed back in the 2018 midterms with a 41- seat pickup to regain the House majority for the first time in 8 years. Political pundits were predicting more success this year, in the range of 5-15 additional seats, but the blue wave didn’t materialize.

House Republicans went on the offense and the Democrats’ majority could be as narrow as 222-213 when the final 5 contests are called. It will be the Democrats smallest majority since World War Two and House Republican Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California is pledging to win back the chamber in the 2022 midterms.

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With President-elect Joe Biden about to take over in the White House, House Republicans may have the winds of history behind their backs.

“It’s very common for the president’s party to lose ground in the House in midterm elections,” noted Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the nonpartisan political handicapper Sabato's Crystal Ball. “Since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost ground in the House in 37 of 40 midterms. The average seat loss is 33 seats.”

Kondik emphasized that “just based on history, the Democratic House majority is very vulnerable.”

Making the Democrats task even tougher will likely be Congressional redistricting coming out of the 2020 census.  

“If you look at what’s going to happen with redistricting, Republicans have more control over the process in more places that than the Democrats do,” Kondik noted.

But the 2022 midterms are two years away – a life time campaign politics – and no one at this point has a clue as to how the political environment will be shaping up down the road.