Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Debt Ceiling Vote Tuesday
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Tuesday's straight up-or-down vote on increasing the debt limit is basically a moot vote. No one actually thinks it will pass.
There are two reasons for that.
First of all, there are no "spending cuts" or framework attached to the bill.
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Secondly, the House is treating this as a suspension bill. That means it has limited debate -- only 20 or so minutes -- and needs a two-thirds majority to pass.
In other words, if everyone votes, with 432 occupied seats -- three vacancies, including the recently decided NY-26th seat -- and Gabrielle Giffords not voting, the total is really 431.
That means the House needs 287 yes votes to pass this.
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There is little chance of that happening.
Anticipate the House getting around to debating the debt ceiling no earlier than 4:45 pm ET. Debate will run longer 20 to 40 minutes. The actual vote will hit somewhere in a sequence of votes that is scheduled to start at 6:30 ET.
The House is conducting this vote Tuesday, well after Wall Street closes, to guard against the possibility that the market could spiral down in concert with the vote.
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Remember the vote on September 29, 2008 when the House failed to approve the TARP/bailout bill? The market plunged in synchronicity with the vote. All told, the market lost 778 points, the largest single-day point loss in the history of the Dow. More than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization washed away.