Historian who predicted almost every election since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in Trump-Harris matchup
'A lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose' – Allan Lichtman
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The "Keys to the White House" are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party's candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic "key" for President Biden's incumbency – but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift.
Former President Trump arrives at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024. (Mike Segar/Reuters)
The "keys" are as follows:
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change,
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman's prediction. These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.
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Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at her presidential campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 22, 2024. (Erin Schaff/Reuters)
There are still four more keys that have yet to be handed out.
The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman says is notable given Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s place in the race.
Keys are also still in the air for having "no social unrest," as well as "foreign military failure" and "foreign military success."
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}If Democrats lose three more keys, then they would be the projected "losers," according to the election prognosticator's formula.
History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his "Thirteen Keys to the White House" at American University in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2008. (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images)
A final prediction has not yet been made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016, and Biden in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.