Harris leads in Virginia, a state Trump is aiming to flip: poll

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Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters in Virginia, a state the Trump campaign has been looking to flip red after losing in 2016 and 2020.

The latest Washington Post-Schar School poll, released Tuesday, before the two candidates debated in Philadelphia, showed Harris leading Trump by 50% to 42% in the Old Dominion State with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll underscores a significant turnaround to the top of the Democratic ticket in Virginia since Harris dramatically replaced President Biden as her party’s nominee. 

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A new poll ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News Presidential Debate shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters in Virginia. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images.)

A Fox News poll in June had Biden and Trump in a dead heat. Biden swept Virginia in 2020 by more than 10 points. Hillary Clinton beat Trump by more than five points there in 2016 – although Trump went on to win the presidency.

No Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since former President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.

The GOP has been making progress in the state, with the 2021 election of Gov. Glenn Youngkin as the first Republican to be elected to the governorship since 2009 and further success in the 2022 midterms and the state’s 2023 off-year elections.

Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said the poll also shows that Trump does not have a significant lead on any issue measured in this survey.

"Most notable not only is the size of Harris’s lead, but that Trump does not have any issue advantage, unlike national polls in which he enjoys some advantage on the economy, immigration and fighting crime," Rozell told The Washington Post.

"Trump’s path to the presidency therefore does not run through Virginia."

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The poll is a welcome boost for Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News Presidential Debate, the first presidential debate between the two nominees. ABC News signage pictured being installed in the media file center inside the Pennsylvania Convention Center. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Jeff Ryer, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign Virginia, says the poll doesn't line up with what people are saying on the ground.

"These polls are in no way reflective of what we're hearing at the doors and on the phones from the tens of thousands of Virginia voters our thousands of volunteers have contacted," Ryer told Fox News Digital.

"And since the Democrats have confirmed they have 25 offices and 132 staffers on the ground in Virginia, it's obviously not what they're hearing either."

The poll, which was conducted from Sept. 4 through Sept. 8, found 55% of female Virginia voters said they would vote for Harris, compared to 37% for Trump. 

Harris performed well among Black Virginia voters, garnering 73 percent of their support. 

Additionally, likely White voters prefer Trump at 50% to 43% for Harris. White likely voters with a college degree swing heavily to Harris at 57% compared to 36% for Trump, while White voters without college degrees support Trump by 64% to 29%.

Harris polled best in the close-in Washington, D.C., suburbs, 60%, Northern Virginia exurbs, 56%, and in the Richmond area, 55%. Trump’s support is strongest in the more rural central and western parts of Virginia, 60%, while the Tidewater region, in Eastern Virginia, tips toward Harris at 49% compared to 42% for Trump. 

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The Washington Post-Schar School poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump by 50% to 42% in Virginia. (Getty Images)

In terms of favorability, 53% of Virginians have an unfavorable impression of the former president while 39% are favorable. Harris is net popular with 49% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

The poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,005 registered voters in Virginia with 65% reached by live callers on cellphones, 14% on landlines and 21% via cellphone text to-web. 

The pool of respondents was made up of 31% who say they think of themselves as Democrats compared to 28% of Republicans. Independents accounted for 30% of participants.