Going to school on the politics of corona

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Trump blames politics for delaying school reopenings

AAP fellow Dr. Steven Abelowitz and Orange County Board of Supervisors Don Wagner weigh in on safely reopening schools.

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On the roster: Going to school on the politics of corona - Biden still rising - Trump picks fare well in Tuesday primaries - McConnell & Co. ready stimulus pitch - ‘Stand by Me’ meets ‘Dumb and Dumber’

GOING TO SCHOOL ON THE POLITICS OF CORONA
Let’s say that you really, really wanted as many children to be back in class this fall as possible.

There are plenty of good reasons why you would. Especially for poor children and those with unstable family arrangements, anecdotal evidence warns that remote learning may turn out to be a disaster of lasting consequence.

There are also serious mental health concerns for students and their families even beyond the baseline worries about socialization for developing minds. And the economic consequences – again falling harder on the working poor and blue-collar families – are enormous.

Some have even suggested that there is no question more important to economic recovery than putting the nation’s 56 million or so K-12 students back in classrooms.

Outside of a relatively small number of families, mostly in the elite, knowledge-worker class, keeping a parent home for many months more – and having that parent act as proctor for distance learning or, in many cases, the primary instructor – simply is not possible.

Sixty-four percent of married couples that have kids were in dual-income households pre-corona. Something like 80 percent of single parents were in the workforce.

With mortgage and rent delinquencies piling up, the economy is heading for a breaking point. You can’t put the parents back in their cubicles and warehouse stations until you put their children back behind their desks. Stimuli, bailouts and subsidies are running out.

And decision day is almost here. School districts around the country are just a couple of weeks away from back-to-school activities. For most of the nation’s nearly 16,000 school districts and for the nearly 4 million teachers in public and private schools, this would normally be go time.

So if you felt that way – sincerely concerned for the formational, psychological, educational and economic hardships for students and their families and their disproportionate, long-term consequences for working-class and poor families – what would you do if you were in a leadership position?

Heck, what if you cared more about your own skin in an election year and needed to show your constituents that you were on top of a paramount concern for parents and grandparents? How would you proceed if your aim was to get as many students safely back in class as possible in your jurisdiction?

You’d first acknowledge that the biggest obstacle was the anxiety among educators and parents. That anxiety is just as real and well-founded as the desire to send kids back to school – and many of the anxious ones are the same folks who want schools to reopen.

Those 4 million teachers are worried about getting sick and the parents of those 56 million students are worried about their children going to mingle with hundreds of other students under conditions that make precautions very hard to implement, even if you could get children to obey the rules. Now think about teachers, parents and other caregivers who are elderly or ill.

So you’d have to figure out ways to encourage confidence. You’d want to find the best experts and develop plans in concert with them about how much and how soon would be possible. You could never get 100 percent buy in, but you’d at least want to show that you were making every effort.

You’d want voters to have gotten a little tired of hearing your careful cautions by now so that whatever plan you did produce came from someone who had credibility on the question. The success of many states in executing this pandemic pirouette will rely on governors cashing in on the credibility and favorable reputations they have built over the past four months.

In the same way, you’d want to make sure that the decision seemed free from politics, or as free as possible. You’d avoid alienating members of the other party on the question to get as much buy-in as possible. Again, even if you were acting out of selfish reasons, you can’t give half of Americans an easy excuse for disregarding your decisions.

You’d also want to communicate clearly and simply about what the policies were. As many federal, state and local leaders are learning, confused advice or contradictory communication creates a strong incentive for parents and teachers to stay away. If it doesn’t look like you know what you’re talking about, why should they trust you?

And you’d also want to make sure that you could deliver on your promises and that expectations were well managed. You wouldn’t make threats or promises on which you couldn’t deliver, and you’d make sure that the credit and blame for the results belonged with the real decision makers. 

These are hard things, it’s true. And even if you build public confidence, develop a credible, authoritative and clear approach, secure bipartisan support and communicate in an effective way, you might still fail. The virus might take another turn, or your timing might be off by just a week or two, or, your political rivals might undermine you anyway.

What you would not do, however, would be to establish yourself as a corona dilettante who is too quick to dismiss public concerns. Nor would you elevate experts and then engage in ugly, public spats with them. Nor would accuse those who disagree with you as wanting to hurt children to help themselves. Nor would you turn the relevant data into a political football. Nor would you turn moments for effective communication into rambling discursions.

Even if the other side did it first. Even if the coverage was unfair Even if you got the blame for things beyond your control.

It was pretty far-fetched to think that President Trump and his administration could deliver on this crucial question about schools after months after months of bobbles and botches on coronavirus. But the fact that they seem intent on plunging forward anyway seems certain to produce more bad reviews for the incumbent on the top issue of the 2020 election.

His opponent, meantime, is free to live in the no-consequence zone of the challenger, able to exploit the worries and fears of voters but not having to deliver until after the crisis has probably passed. For a guy formerly famous for his failures, Joe Biden is getting all the breaks this election year.

THE RULEBOOK: GET YOUR COMPS
“The expense of an accurate valuation is, in all situations, a formidable objection. In a branch of taxation where no limits to the discretion of the government are to be found in the nature of things, the establishment of a fixed rule, not incompatible with the end, may be attended with fewer inconveniences than to leave that discretion altogether at large.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 21

TIME OUT: DRAGON MASTER
The Atlantic: “Perhaps the purest distillation of Bruce Lee’s cinematic presence is when he snapped Chuck Norris’ neck at the end of a battle in the Roman Colosseum. It’s the climactic showdown in The Way of the Dragon – the only movie Lee directed and the last film released in his lifetime. It’s also one of the few times in Lee’s career when his character faced a worthy opponent. In the scene, Lee approaches Norris, who plays a karate master, with a series of formal kicks before getting knocked to the ground. Back on his feet, Lee’s character starts mixing up his fighting style, bests Norris, and gives him the chance to surrender. When Norris refuses, a regretful Lee kills him, later placing the dead man’s clothes and black belt atop his body as a sign of respect. The Way of the Dragon … is an odd film, one that’s far more light-hearted and outwardly funny than the rest of his oeuvre.”

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SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 40.2 percent
Biden: 51.4 percent
Size of lead: Biden by 11.2 points
Change from one week ago: Biden ↑ 0.4 points, Trump ↑ 0.2 points
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University: Trump 37% - Biden 52%;  Monmouth: Trump 41% - Biden 53%; CNBC: Trump 41% - Biden 49%; USA Today/Suffolk: Trump 41% - Biden 53%; NPR/PBS/Marist: Trump 44% - Biden 52%.]

BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 39.4 percent
Average disapproval: 56.2 percent
Net Score: -16.8 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ 1 point
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University: 36% approve - 60% disapprove; Monmouth: 41% approve - 54% disapprove; Gallup: 38% approve - 57% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 40% approve - 58% disapprove; NPR/PBS: 41% approve - 57% disapprove.]

[Ed. note: The survey from Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) that was included in recent editions was used in error. We were unaware that their pollster had changed methods. Scoring has been updated to reflect the change.]

BIDEN STILL RISING
Quinnipiac University: “…[Former] Vice President Joe Biden opens up his biggest lead this year over President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Registered voters back Biden over Trump 52 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. This compares to a June 18th national poll when Biden led Trump 49 - 41 percent. … Independents are a key factor behind Biden's widening lead as they now back him 51 - 34 percent… There is also some movement among Republicans as they back Trump 84 - 9 percent, compared to 92 - 7 percent in June. … Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump in a direct match up when it comes to handling the economy. Voters say 50 - 45 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the economy, a reversal from June when Trump held a slight lead 51 - 46 percent. … Voters give President Trump a negative 36 - 60 percent job approval rating, a 6 point drop in his job approval compared to last month.”

Up big in native Pennsylvania - Fox News: “A new poll in the crucial general election battleground state of Pennsylvania shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead over President Trump among registered voters. … The former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee topped the GOP incumbent in the White House among registered voters 53-40 percent, according to the poll, which was conducted July 9-13. … But the poll shows that registered voters are divided on whether they expect the president or Biden will win Pennsylvania in the end. One reason may be that 57 percent of registered voters questioned said they believe there’s a sizeable amount of so-called secret voters in their communities who back Trump but won’t tell anyone about their support. Only 27 percent said they believe there are secret voters for the former vice president.”

Biden spends big on Tar Heel State corona ad - The Charlotte Observer: “Former Vice President Joe Biden Tuesday launched a new ad in North Carolina focused on concerns over the coronavirus. ‘I’m thinking of all of you today across North Carolina,’ he says in the ad. ‘People are frightened. And they’re especially worried about their parents and grandparents and people most at risk . . . This virus is tough but North Carolina is tougher.’ A version of the TV and digital ad also is running in Florida, Arizona and Texas, where it is the campaign’s first TV ad. Biden’s campaign is spending just over $500,000 on TV ads in North Carolina, according to Advertising Analytics. That’s a fraction of what President Trump and his allies are spending in the state, according to the company. With its reserved broadcast time in the fall, the company says, the Trump campaign is spending $23.3 million in North Carolina compared to Biden’s total of $757,000.”

Another way to think about the enthusiasm gap - FiveThirtyEight: “Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him. … Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale even described their enthusiasm advantage over Biden as ‘the most important factor in the campaign.’ … First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June. Second, because Trump voters don’t dislike Biden as much as Biden voters dislike Trump, Biden actually has an advantage in net enthusiasm…”

Florida Republicans doctor Trump tweet on mail-in voting - Politico: “President Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric against mail-in voting is causing a big problem for Florida Republicans, who once dominated the practice here. So the state GOP came up with a solution: They doctored one of Trump’s tweets on the issue to remove the stigma. In a mass-solicitation designed to boost flagging interest in registering to vote by mail, the Republican Party of Florida featured a Trump tweet from June 28 that praised absentee ballots but that had his opposition to mail-in voting strategically edited out. ‘Absentee Ballots are fine. A person has to go through a process to get and use them,’ Trump said in the tweet. The rest of the quote was blurred out: ‘Mail-In Voting, on the other hand, will lead to the most corrupt Election is USA history. Bad things happen with Mail-Ins. Just look at Special Election in Patterson, N.J. 19% of Ballots a FRAUD.’”

West said to have tried for Florida ballot before bowing out - NY Mag: “On July 4, Kanye West tweeted that he was running for president. It was treated as one of his typical grandiloquent pronouncements. ... In a follow-up interview with Forbes, West pledged, if elected, to run the White House like the nation of Wakanda from Black Panther. That remark seemed to reinforce the notion that this was just a lark. After all, West had previously compared himself to figures varying from God to Willy Wonka without attempting to establish the Kingdom of Heaven or manufacture an Everlasting Gobstopper. But this time may — at least for a moment — be different. … It may not happen this year, but certainly West could run for president in the future. Donald Trump flirted multiple times with a presidential bid before his now infamous descent down the golden escalator in 2015. West’s ambitions to be a presidential candidate should probably be taken more seriously than his ambitions to be Willy Wonka.”

TRUMP PICKS FARE WELL IN TUESDAY PRIMARIES
Politico: “President Donald Trump’s interests in Tuesday’s primaries went beyond politics and his grip on the Republican Party. Tuesday night was personal for Trump — and, on that measure, he won. Jeff Sessions, Trump’s first attorney general and the target of his derision over the past three years, got drubbed in Alabama. Trump’s former White House physician, Ronny Jackson, won in Texas and is all-but-certain to come to Congress in January. But the Trump-driven GOP contests weren’t the only ones on the ballot. Democrats are on the verge of finalizing their lineup of candidates for their Senate takeover drive, including tapping Sara Gideon to take on Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, one of the top races in the country. Both parties picked nominees in House races that point to their November strategies. And even the GOP’s under-the-radar primaries continued to be defined by Trump and his mutable cast of allies.”

Pete Sessions takes big step in bid to return to Congress - Fox News: “Former longtime Republican Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas passed what may be his biggest test in his bid to return to the House of Representatives. Sessions – who served 22 years in Congress before being defeated in 2018 by Democrat Colin Allred – won a GOP primary runoff on Tuesday. But the former chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee didn’t run in Texas’ 32nd Congressional District, the suburban Dallas-area district he once represented. Instead, he ran in the state’s 17th Congressional District, about 100 miles south of his old district and includes the city of Waco. The switch angered retiring GOP Rep. Bill Flores, who backed Sessions’ opponent – health care executive Renee Swann. Sessions topped Swann by roughly 7 percentage points, according to unofficial vote totals. After Swann conceded, Sessions appeared to take a jab at Flores.”

Rep. Steve Watkins charged in illegal voting case - The Kansas City Star: “Kansas Rep. Steve Watkins was charged Tuesday with three felonies and a misdemeanor related to an investigation into whether he illegally voted in a 2019 municipal election. Shawnee County District Attorney Mike Kagay, a Republican, announced the charges about a half-hour before Watkins, a first-term Topeka Republican, was set to appear on a televised debate with his primary challengers Jake LaTurner and Dennis Taylor on KSNT. Watkins called the timing of the charges ‘hyper political’ and ‘very suspicious,’ contending that the district attorney shared a consultant with one of his opponents— a reference to LaTurner and Kagay’s past use of Singularis, a direct mail firm in Overland Park. ‘We’ve cooperated with the district attorney completely,’ Watkins said. ‘I look forward to clearing my name.’ The felony charges are interference with law enforcement by providing false information, voting without being qualified and unlawful advance voting.”

MCCONNELL & CO. READY STIMULUS PITCH
The Hill: “Republicans are preparing to roll out their latest coronavirus relief proposal as soon as next week as Congress faces growing pressure to act amid a surge of new cases. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is planning to start briefing his caucus next week on the forthcoming Republican proposal, which he wants to use as a framework for negotiations with Democrats. ‘Once we go back into session next week, I’ll begin socializing ... internalizing, if you will, discussions that I’ve had during this week off, with my members,’ McConnell said during a stop in Kentucky on Tuesday. Asked what the Senate’s agenda will be, McConnell separately told WRVK, a Kentucky radio station, that ‘this new coronavirus package will be front and center. That will dominate our time ... starting next week.’”

Walmart, Sam's Club to make nationwide mask requirements - USA Today: “Walmart and Sam's Club will start requiring masks at stores and clubs nationwide starting Monday, July 20, the company announced Wednesday. ‘We know some people have differing opinions on this topic. We also recognize the role we can play to help protect the health and well-being of the communities we serve by following the evolving guidance of health officials like the CDC,’ the retailers' chief operating officers said in a blog post Wednesday. The move comes two days after Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said a mask mandate in stores nationwide was ‘obviously something that's on our minds.’ Best Buy and Starbucks started requiring consumers nationwide wear masks Wednesday.”

Mask-averse Oklahoma governor ‘shocked’ to be diagnosed with corona - Tulsa World: “Gov. Kevin Stitt has tested positive for COVID-19, he confirmed Wednesday. The news comes after the state recently reopened but is seeing record spikes in cases. ‘I feel fine,’ Stitt said, just a little achy, after his test Tuesday came back positive. ‘I was pretty shocked that I was the first governor to get it.’ He said he encourages anyone with symptoms to get themselves tested. Stitt on Tuesday chaired a meeting of the Commissioners of the Land Office. Three of the five members and Rep. Mark McBride, R-Moore, met in executive session to discuss a new leader for the agency. The governor was asked Wednesday about the meeting, where Stitt did not wear a mask. A quarantine for those at the meeting has not yet been determined.”

AFTER A DELAY, TAX DAY
Fox News: “After a three-month delay, it’s officially Tax Day for all Americans. This year, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the IRS extended the traditional tax-filing deadline from April 15 to July 15. By shifting the deadline, the federal government allowed individuals and businesses to hold onto their cash longer as they dealt with the fallout from the virus outbreak. The three-month delay injected about $300 billion of liquidity into the economy, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Taxpayers must file or seek an extension by today — or face a financial penalty. As of June 26, the IRS had processed about 128.5 million returns, down 10.6 percent from last year. By comparison, it had received about 140 million returns, a drop of just 3.5 percent from the same time last year. The agency has issued roughly 93 million refunds so far, down 10.3 percent from this point in 2019.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pergram: Congressional Democrats target Confederate symbols at Capitol, US military bases - Fox News

John McWhorter: ‘The dehumanizing condescension of ‘White Fragility’ - The Atlantic

AUDIBLE: BLUE LANGUAGE
“The vast majority of law enforcement officers are decent, honorable, honorable people, and they do a hell of a job and they risk their lives protecting us.” – Former Vice President Joe Biden to Charlotte’s WBTV explaining his opposition to calls to defund police departments.

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

‘STAND BY ME’ MEETS ‘DUMB AND DUMBER’
WSAV: “Liberty County [Ga.] officials believe they were set up on Tuesday when what they thought was a dead body turned out to be a sex doll. Around 2 p.m. in Allenhurst, not far from Dunlevie Road, Liberty County Sheriff’s Office Detective Mike Albritton said officers found the object laying on the side of railroad tracks. By policy, law enforcement officers do not touch a deceased person until the coroner arrives, so they placed a sheet over the suspected body and waited. When the coroner arrived, detectives began to check for injuries and immediately discovered the body was a female sex doll. The doll was anatomically correct, with realistic skin and features, and was fully dressed, authorities say. Albritton said in all his years, he has never encountered a situation like this.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Twenty-five years ago this week, I wrote my first column. I’m not much given to self-reflection — why do you think I quit psychiatry? — but I figure once every quarter-century is not excessive.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Dec. 18, 2009.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.