Fox News Power Rankings: Beating the odds

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Key House races shift in Fox Power Rankings

31 midterm contests are now in the 'toss-up' category ahead of November's elections; insight from Chris Stirewalt, Fox News politics editor.

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FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: BEATING THE ODDS
There are 1,696 players in the NFL, but just 10 of them come from Division III colleges – those 442 small schools across the country, many of which are liberal arts institutions and small regional campuses for bigger state schools. 

The odds of making the pros are low for starting players in Division I schools – the guys playing on TV every Saturday in the fall – are pretty low. For Division III, the odds are impossibly bad.

But you can bet that when they think about the NFL, today’s small-college players aren’t thinking about the thousands who never even got a scouting visit. They are thinking about someone like Dan Arnold, who had his pro debut last week. Arnold made it from University of Wisconsin-Platteville to the pros, and every guy out there busting his hump at a little school thinks that might be him some day.

So let’s call today’s House Power Rankings changes the Dan Arnold Edition since it highlights two candidates who are playing way above their division and defying expectations to do so.

Overall, we’re moving nine races: five away from Democrats and four away from Republicans. Of the 73 races we’re tracking as at least somewhat competitive, 26 now lean toward the GOP, 16 lean toward the Dems and 31 are toss-ups. (You can always look at all of the rankings and follow our 2018 coverage in one convenient midterms page.)

The thing about those toss ups, though, is that they are almost completely in Republican territory. Democrats are playing defense on just two of the 31 contests we deem most competitive. 

The Blue Team needs to win 23 seats to take the House. After factoring in the seats that already look likely to change hands, that means Democrats need a net win of just 10 out of the 31 toss ups to take power in the lower chamber. 

Taken as a whole, the climate and the map say the same things they have for months: after eight years on top, the House GOP is staring minority status squarely in the eyes.

But just because you never got scouted, doesn’t mean you can’t make it to the pros. We’ll start our roster today with two races that looked like sure things at the start of the cycle but now look like anything but that.

FLORIDA HOUSE DISTRICT 27
Rating: Moves from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up”

Open seat: Incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) is retiring 

Republican: Maria Elvira Salazar is a first-time candidate. But after spending decades as a Spanish-language news anchor and reporter, the 56-year-old decided to take a chance on the House seat opening up in her part of Miami. Like many voters in her district, she’s a Cuban American and like Ros-Lehtinen, Salazar is running as a moderate Republican, taking softer lines on issues including firearms, immigration and the environment than her party.   

Democrat: Donna Shalala was an unlikely pick to lead the sprawling Department of Health and Human Services under then-President Bill Clinton. She was then the chancellor of the University of Wisconsin, but had struck up a friendship with first lady Hillary Clinton when they served on the board of the liberal Children’s Defense Fund. She ended up serving all eight years of the Clinton presidency. She returned to academia to lead the University of Miami from 2001 to 2015. In 2015, she took over the ailing Clinton Foundation for two years. Shalala, 77, is a native Ohioan and the first Lebanese-American to serve in the Cabinet.   

Race notes: Until a few months ago, Republicans were not even seriously contesting this seat. The district, which includes an increasingly diverse demographic array, had been trending Democratic for years and went for Clinton by 20 points in 2016. Without a stalwart like Ros-Lehtinen, who has held the seat since 1989, it was thought to be a goner. But then Shalala, also a first-time candidate, didn’t seem to warm to the task of the fundraising and retail politics that a House race. Salazar, meanwhile, has been a relentless campaigner and fundraiser.

WEST VIRGINIA HOUSE DISTRICT 3 
Rating: Moves from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”

Open seat: Evan Jenkins (R) resigned to accept an appointment to the state supreme court.

Republican: Carol Miller has been in the West Virginia House of Delegates for more than a decade and along with her husband own one of the largest car dealerships in Southern West Virginia. She can also claim family ties to Congress as the daughter of longtime Ohio Rep. Samuel Devine who represented an Ohio district for decades. Leaning heavily on her fellow social conservatives, she fought her way through a primary that turned sharply competitive when Jenkins announced his ill-fated run for a Senate seat. 

Democrat: Richard Ojeda is like a lot of Democrats in the district in that he voted forDonald Trump in 2016. What he’s getting ready to find out in a district that favored the GOP by nearly 50 points two years ago is how many others agree that Trump hasn’t delivered. Or, as Iraq and Afghanistan veteran Ojeda said, Trump “hasn’t done s--t” for the district. Ojeda knocked off a well-connected Democrat incumbent in a 2016 state senate primary. He used that perch to become a vocal advocate for the state’s striking teachers union and became a favorite of organized labor.  

Race notes: The 3rd District is shaped like a scruffy beard at the bottom of the Mountains state, curving from the traditionally Democratic precincts in and Around Huntington on the Kentucky border all the way around to historically Republican-leaning spots on the border with Virginia. Ojeda 

FLORIDA HOUSE DISTRICT 6 
Rating: Moves from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”

Open Seat: Ron DeSantis (R) resigned to run for governor of Florida

Republican: Michael Waltz, a special forces combat veteran, has made his military service the focal point of his political platform. Waltz has 21 years of active and reserve duty under his belt after graduating from the Virginia Military Institute. Waltz worked at the Pentagon as a defense policy director for secretaries of defense Rumsfeld and Gates. He went on to serve as Vice President Dick Cheney’s counterterrorism advisor and is a former Fox News contributor.

Democrat: Nancy Soderberg currently serves as the President and CEO of Soderberg Global Solutions and Director of the Public Service Leadership Program at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville. Prior to this she worked on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign and served in his administration. In 1997 Clinton nominated Soderberg to serve as the Alternate Representative to the United Nations as a Presidential Appointee, which gave her the rank of Ambassador. She ran, and ultimately lost, Florida Senate District 4 seat in 2012.

Race notes: We had held off on sliding this seat into the “likely” category mostly because it was an open seat in a topsy-turvy year. But the seat has been in GOP hands since 1988 and this does not look like the year that will change that. 

WISCONSIN HOUSE DISTRICT 6 
Rating: Move from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”

Republican: Glenn Grothman (Incumbent) was elected to Congress in 2014 and is seeking re-election for his third term. Prior to Congress, Grothman served as a member of the Wisconsin State Senate for ten years and before that the Wisconsin General Assembly for ten years. 

Democrat: Dan Kohl is the nephew of business mogul and longtime Wisconsin Sen.Herb Kohl, who retired in 2012. Dan has been active in Democratic politics in the state and nationally, including his work establishing J Street, a left-leaning group for Jewish Americans. He ran for the Wisconsin State Assembly in 2008, but lost.

Race Notes: The seat has been held by a Republican since 1966. It includes the overwhelmingly white suburbs of Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay as well as farm counties in the interior of the state.

NEW YORK HOUSE DISTRICT 11
Rating: Moves from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”

Republican: Dan Donovan (Incumbent) looked like he was in big trouble when former Congressman Michael Grimm got out of prison and wanted to get back into politics. Donovan had won the Staten Island seat when Grimm got bounced out of Congress for ethics violations in 2015. Grimm came back swinging, but got laid out by Donovan who got a helpful endorsement from President Trump.

Democrat: Max Rose, post-9/11 combat Afghanistan veteran, and markets himself as the first veteran to seek office in NYC. Rose served as Chief of Staff for Brightpoint Health, a non-profit healthcare organization. He also served as Director of Public Engagement and Special Assistant to the late Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson. 

Race notes: The question for Donovan was whether the hard-hitting primary would produce hard feelings in this overwhelmingly Republican district. Apparently not. This race should be a lock for the GOP.

TEXAS HOUSE DISTRICT 31
Rating: Moves from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”

Republican: John Carter (Incumbent) was first elected to Congress in 2002. Prior to that, he served 20 years on the district court bench in Williamson County. He once co-sponsored a bill to force presidential candidates to show their birth certificates in response to the claim that Barack Obama was a secret Kenyan, but has generally been a controversy-averse, reliable GOP vote.   

Democrat: M.J. Hegar served as an Air Force helicopter pilot, which included three tours in Afghanistan, where she won a Purple Heart and Distinguished Flying Cross after being shot down on a rescue mission. He debut ad, that featured her going through closed doors, won huge plaudits. She was seen as the kind of Democrat – female, tough-minded and a veteran – who could compete in red districts. 

Race Notes: Democrats have reason for optimism in this district, which is increasingly being shaped by the more liberal Austin suburbs. But it looks like the change won’t come soon enough for Hegar. 

PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE DISTRICT 1
Rating: Moves from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”

Republican: Brian Fitzpatrick (Incumbent) was first elected to Congress in 2016, when he ran for the open seat in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which was his brother’s,Mike Fitzpatrick. Prior to Congress Fitzpatrick served as a special agent for the FBI.He’s a moderate with some bipartisan bona fides. 

Democrat: Scott Wallace is the grandson of Vice President Henry Wallace, a liberal icon who served under Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman. After decades of work in senior staff positions in Washington, including many years for Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, Scott Wallace is making his first run for elective office. 

Race Notes: Much of this district was formerly Pennsylvania District 8, which had been held by a Republican since 2011. The new district contains the core of the former 8th District, keeping Bucks County intact, but adds more Democratic territory making Fitzpatrick’s job that much harder. 

FLORIDA HOUSE DISTRICT 26 
Rating: Move from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”

Republican: Carlos Curbelo (Incumbent) was first elected to Congress in 2014. Prior to this he served as a member of the Miami-Dade County School Board and as a staffer for United States Senator George LeMieux. Curbelo was ranked the fourth most bipartisan member of the House by The Lugar Center’s bipartisan index last year.

Democrat: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell immigrated to the United States from Ecuador as a young girl with her mom and sisters. She has spent the past 20 years working for non-profit organizations, such as the Hope Center, Zoo Miami Foundation, the Coral Restoration Foundation, and served as former associate dean at Florida International University. 

Race Notes: Curbello has worked hard to carve out his brand as a centrist Republican, allowing him to both tap into votes among his fellow Cuban Americans as well as with the rapidly changing and increasingly diverse parts of a district that includes areas like Kendall before stretching all the way to Key West. It is the most Democratic district held by a Republican. 

PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE DISTRICT 8 
Rating: Moves from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”

Republican: John Chrin moved back to Pennsylvania last year after a very successful career as a Wall Street banker for JP Morgan. He and his wife, a former Goldman Sachs executive, now run their own investment firm. He had the misfortune of timing his move to just before Pennsylvania courts tossed out the existing congressional map, leaving him outside of the district he wanted to represent. He moved again and is now on the right side of the line.  

Democrat: Matt Cartwright (Incumbent) made big bucks working with his wife in her family’s personal injury law practice. Cartwright won the district in 2102 after running to the left of longtime moderate Democrat Rep. Tim Holden, but has subsequently tried to stake out a more moderate stance in keeping with his blue-collar district.

Race notes: It’s not surprising that Chrin and other Republicans thought this seat might be in play. It covers some of the precincts that saw some of the most remarkable moves from blue to red from 2012 to 2016. If you were looking for the epicenter of the Trump phenomenon in Pennsylvania, Luzerne and Lackawanna counties would be at the top of the list. But that doesn’t seem to hold true for Republicans in general. 

THE RULEBOOK: SMALL WORLD 
“The improvements in the art of navigation have, as to the facility of communication, rendered distant nations, in a great measure, neighbors.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 24

TIME OUT: DANCING IN THE MOONLIGHT
Jayne Anne Phillips looks anew at the old feud that burned along the West Virginia-Kentucky border. Lapham’s Quarterly: “Election days, on both sides of the [Tug River], were social gatherings that featured marksmanship contests, dancing, ‘best recipe’ banquets, and the not so subtle trading and purchase of moonshine. The storied romance between Roseanna McCoy, [Randall McCoy’s] daughter, andJohnse Hatfield, [Devil Anse Hatfield’s] eldest son, supposedly began at an Election Day celebration near Blackberry Creek in 1880. Roseanna was naive enough to believe the worldlier Johnse’s declarations of love; perhaps he believed them himself. They drifted away from the crowds like a couple in a Van Morrison song and literally lost track of time, returning after the polling place was closed. Nearly everyone had departed, including Roseanna’s brothers, whom Randall had charged with bringing Roseanna home. Instead, Johnse Hatfield took her to West Virginia, where she slept upstairs with his sisters. Randall McCoy had sent his sons back to the polling place in the dark, where they called for Roseanna in the woods and along the river.”

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SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance 
Average approval: 42.4 percent
Average disapproval: 53 percent
Net Score: -10.6 points
Change from one week ago: up 0.4 points 
[Average includes: ABC/WaPo: 43% approve - 53% disapprove; CNN: 43% approve - 52% disapprove; Gallup: 43% approve - 53% disapprove; IBD: 40% approve - 54% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 43% approve - 53% disapprove.]

Control of House
Republican average: 42 percent
Democratic average: 49.8 percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 7.8 points
Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage up 0.2 points 
[Average includes: ABC/WaPo: 53% Dems - 42% GOP; CNN: 54% Dems - 41% GOP; IBD: 45% Dems - 43% GOP; NPR/PBS/Marist: 48% Dems - 42% GOP; Quinnipiac University: 49% Dems - 42% GOP.]

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HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

A DIPLOMATIC *AHEM* CAT-ASTROPHE 
Yahoo: “The United States' embassy in Canberra has apologized for a ‘training error’ after distributing a fake meeting invitation, complete with a photo of a pajama-wearing cat. The email, titled ‘meeting,’ featured a photo of a tabby cat wearing a blue Cookie Monster outfit and holding a plate of choc-chip biscuits, beneath the title ‘cat pajama-jam.’ In a clear case of misdirected correspondence last week, the email also contained a section of Latin and recipients were given the option to hit an RSVP tab. It's unknown how widely the email, sent by the US Department of State, was distributed. US Mission to Australia public affairs counsellor Gavin Sundwall kept his apology lighthearted. ‘Sorry to disappoint those of you who were hoping to attend this ‘cat pajama-jam’ party, but such an event falls well outside our area of expertise,’ he wrote in a follow-up email two days after the original. … Mr. Sundwall said ‘strong new management controls’ would be added to prevent a repeat of the mistake.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Since the Second World War… the Saudis have depended on us for their very wealthy independence. But they insist that any U.S. military presence be disguised and hidden. No display of American soldiering or uniforms. We anchor the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Indeed, that’s the reason so much of our protection of the Gulf states is offshore. Better no one see us at all.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Jan. 9, 2011.  

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.