Five scenarios for New Hampshire

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First-in-the-nation primary looks to avoid meltdown of Iowa caucuses

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner on Granite State's reliance on paper ballots.

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FIVE SCENARIOS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE
MANCHESTER, N.H. — If anybody tells you they know what’s going to happen in the Democratic primary here tonight, we have just two words for them: Hillary Clinton.

Her 2008 comeback here has been shorthanded by political history as being about her crying at the Cafe Espresso in Portsmouth on the day before the primary. She was asked by a voter, Marianne Pernold Young, about the challenges of running for office as a woman.

In the final average of polls, then-Sen. Barack Obama was up by more than 8 points. He had bounded out of Iowa with mondo mojo.

But was it for real? Clinton had led here, often by huge margins, for months. Obama had certainly surged in the polls, but in a primary open to independents in a state where voters famously do their own thing, had he really surged with likely voters?

Put simply: Was it Clinton’s tears that changed the race or had Obama’s bounce been overstated? As the following months of grueling hand-to-hand political combat would reveal, Clinton’s support with women and more moderate Democrats was very real indeed. No bright lights and soaring oratory in Iowa about the end of the oceans’ rise could erase all that.

The point being, nobody really knows how this is going to play out. It’s hard to catch a surge or a slump when there are so few days to poll between races. That’s why it’s probably better to think in terms of scenarios and how they might play out and what they might mean for the race going forward.

With that in mind, here’s something to chew on...

Bernie, Buttigieg stretch run - As we discussed above, there are a lot of reasons to believe New Hampshire might play spoiler for Democrats again this year. But our selfish journalistic desires aside, it’s still true that even here most of the time what happens is what’s expected. And what’s expected is that the 2016 national runner-up who happens to represent the neighboring state, who also happened to have won here by a million pints of Ben & Jerry’s four years ago will win. It would be a surprise to no one if Sen. Bernie Sanders won here tonight in commanding fashion. Things get a little more questionable for second place, though. Despite some slightly squirrely numbers in recent days, Iowa winner(?) Pete Buttigieg still looks like the main man for the moderates. You can’t rule out the possibility of a Buttigieg win here, but it’s probably enough for him to finish second behind Sanders. That sets the stage for a stretch chase not that different from 2016. It would also mean former Vice President Joe Biden would have some tough choices to make about how and when to end his campaign. The same would go for Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren.

Clear on the left, muddy in the middle - What if Buttigieg disappoints? If Sanders wins as expected but Buttigieg either falls to third place or is tightly knotted with a cluster of his fellow mainstreamers at some distance behind the winner, things get weird. Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg would like this scenario so much he would probably stop and frisk it if he could. If no mainstream Democrat comes out of New Hampshire with a mandate, Bloomberg starts to look like a pretty good bet for an increasingly desperate Democratic majority. The order of battle here would be significant, as we will discuss below. But the emphasis in this scenario is on confusion in the mainstream.

Amy with a ‘y’ not? - There is something about Klobuchar that the voters in the Live Free Or Die state seem to like. After a strong performance in Friday’s debate here she pulled in nearly $2 million, touting herself as the dark horse candidate to her supporters. This is a strong moment for Klobuchar, but will it turn into momentum going forward? A strong third place finish here could help give the Minnesota senator a push in Nevada and South Carolina, especially if moderate voters turn to her instead of Buttigieg or Biden. She also poses a unique challenge to Bloomberg. She’s got the experience and record that Buttigieg does not, plus it would be hard for Bloomberg to argue against a woman who has paid the dues he has not. But she’s not waiting for today’s results to get the ball rolling. Her campaign already has people on the ground in Nevada and the recent influx of money has been put toward ads in South Carolina and Super Tuesday efforts.

It’s only a flesh wound - Biden seemed genuinely surprised at how poorly he did in Iowa. You can’t blame him. So were we. The onetime front-runner has already decamped New England for what he promises will be the warmer, more welcoming clime of South Carolina. He has already conceded defeat here and, Giuliani-style, promised that he will rise again in the south. But given that Biden’s chances look about as good as the Patriots’ without Tom Brady, he finally has the blessing of low expectations. What happens if Biden scores even a third place in New Hampshire? While Bloomberg is potentially still the beneficiary in such an outcome, a resuscitated Biden probably poses a tougher test than even a surging Buttigieg or Klobuchar. As Biden grapples with what now looks like the inevitable end of his third presidential run, don’t rule out the possibility of another New Hampshire lifeline for a struggling Democratic candidate.

Don’t call it a comeback - If there’s any candidate here who polls are likely to have underappreciated, it’s Warren. Well organized, well funded and from the commonwealth closest to the population center of New Hampshire, Warren is no pushover. We know that her campaign has been a dire tangle of contradictions and pitiful pandering, but it’s not like people expect that much, really, from politicians. While a win may be out of reach for Warren, she could make life very complicated for her frenemy, Sanders. A second-place finish or even a robust third could give Warren all the reasons she needs to keep up the fight in Nevada, South Carolina and beyond. You couldn’t blame her. If Democrats do end up in a tested convention those delegates will be the ante to get into a very high-stakes poker game.

*WATCH FOX*
Tune in to Fox News Channel for special coverage beginning at 6 pm ET with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum live from Bedford, New Hampshire. Special coverage will continue at 11 pm ET as Bret and Martha discuss the evening’s results and provide analysis. Continuing to deliver the latest election updates, Shannon Bream will anchor FOX News @ Night at 12 am ET live from New Hampshire.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.