He’s all but certain to be impeached this week by the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, but a new poll indicates that President Trump now tops the leading Democratic presidential candidates in potential 2020 general election showdowns.
The Republican incumbent edges former Vice President Joe Biden by 3 percentage points, holds a 5 point advantage over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and tops Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts by 8 points, in a USA Today/Suffolk University survey released Monday.
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In hypothetical November 2020 matchups, the poll shows Trump beating South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg by 10 points and multibillionaire business and media mogul and former New City Mayor Mike Bloomberg by 9 points.
The president trailed the leading Democratic White House hopefuls in hypothetical general election showdowns in most national polling during the summer and early autumn – in many cases by double digits -- but he’s made up ground in more recent surveys.
Biden topped the president by 7 points in a Fox News Poll released Sunday. The survey also indicated Sanders topping the president by 6-points and Bloomberg ahead by 5-points. Warren and Buttigieg each edged Trump by a single point.
While such numbers are helpful in taking the political temperature of the moment, hypothetical matchups taken nearly a year before the election – and well before the Democrats choose their 2020 standard-bearer – are hardly considered a reliable barometer of the eventual general election outcome.
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Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos noted that in the new poll’s matchups, the president “won among male voters but every Democratic contender carried a majority or plurality of female voters against him.”
And he added that Trump “bested the Democratic hopefuls among age groups 35 and older, but he lost to each of them among voters 18 to 34 years old.”
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll was conducted Dec. 10-14, with 1,000 registered voters nationwide questioned by live telephone operators. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.