Election forecasts give Biden overwhelming odds to beat Trump, as some see 2016 déjà vu
FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 90% chance of winning
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With experts at FiveThirtyEight, The Economist and Politico all favoring Democratic nominee Joe Biden to win the 2020 election, some Democrats are having flashbacks to 2016 when President Trump defied the odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 90% chance of winning, The Economist gives him approximately 96% and Politico says the race leans Democrat.
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"At certain moments, I have a crippling fear that everything's going to fall apart like it did in 2016. Waiting at the Javits Center with high hopes and leaving in utter despair — that's a moment that will live with me for the rest of my life," Democratic strategist Zac Petkanas told NBC News.
President Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at Fayetteville Regional Airport on Nov. 2, 2020 in Fayetteville, North Carolina. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
"And on the other hand, feeling cautiously optimistic because an objective view at the numbers show key differences in the races, 2016 and 2020, in terms of the base of support that Joe Biden has — a lot of it brought on by the failures of President Trump," Petkanas continued.
FiveThirtyEight predicted in 2016 that Clinton had a roughly 70% chance of winning, while the New York Times' election needle showed Clinton ahead well after many polls closed (and confused viewers with its constant fluttering).
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FOX NEWS POLL: BIDEN'S LEAD OVER TRUMP NARROWS SLIGHTLY TO 8 POINTS
"Trump isn’t in as strong a position as he was in 2016. ... [H]e’s polling worse than he was against Clinton in every single battleground state," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver wrote on Saturday. "Polls can be wrong — indeed, the whole point of our probabilistic forecast is to tell you the chances of that — but they’re more likely to be wrong when a candidate’s lead is narrower."
Trump won 306 electoral votes in 2016, and his team is predicting they could bank at least 280 this year.
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Former House Speaker New Gingrich expressed his frustration with pollsters during a "Fox & Friends" interview on Monday.
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“These people don’t learn anything. They don’t pay any consequences," Gingrich said. "Doesn’t matter how wrong they are.”