Early voting data may be sign of improved GOP ground game in pivotal swing state: expert

The critical swing state of Michigan has seen record-breaking early voting numbers so far, with data on Republican turnout improved significantly over 2020 in what could be a good sign for former President Trump and Republicans, one expert says.

"The numbers we are seeing out of Michigan are encouraging for Republicans across the board," Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital.

Keady’s comments come as over 1.2 million voters in Michigan have already cast a ballot in this year’s election, according to data on the Michigan Department of State’s dashboard, taking advantage of either early voting and mail-in balloting while shattering the previous record for early ballot returns in the state.

While early voting data can give a look at what party a voter is registered to, it doesn’t necessarily mean that voter chose the candidate affiliated with that party in this election. The data also comes two weeks before Election Day, with plenty of time for trends to shift between now and Nov. 5.

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Roughly 17% of the state’s over 7 million registered voters have already returned a ballot, the data shows, with another roughly 1 million requested absentee ballots yet to be returned.

While Michigan does not publicly track party registration like some states, data provided on NBC News by Target Smart estimates that 53% of ballots returned so far in Michigan have been from Democrats, while 37% have been from Republicans and 10% from "other."

But according to Keady, those numbers show improved Republican turnout, a welcome sign for a Trump campaign hopeful to bank votes ahead of Election Day itself.

"While Democrats are maintaining their lead in ballot chasing, Republicans are not far behind, and they are outperforming previous election cycles," Keady said, noting that it will still be "hard to say what impact these numbers will have on the outcome."

"What we are seeing on the ground is that Republicans are actively drawing out more low propensity voters than Democrats," Keady added.

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Over 21.5 million mail-in and early in-person votes have already been cast nationwide as of Wednesday, the Target Smart data shows, with 45% of those coming from Democrats, 38% of Republicans, and 17% from other voters.

Keady believes two key states to watch will be Michigan and Nevada, another of the seven swing states, where straight ticket voting could play a critical role in down-ballot races.

"A key aspect of this election cycle will be straight ticket voting," Keady said. "Nevada and Michigan are the only two swing states – and two out of seven states nationally — that allow straight ticket voting. In places like Michigan where the top of the ticket is outperforming down-ballot races, there is a good chance that straight ticket voting will help Senate, Congressional, and statewide races."

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Keady also warned against reading too much into the partisan advantage for Democrats, noting that many of Trump’s supporters are likely to be union voters who traditionally have supported Democrats but will support Trump in 2024.

"It’s important to remember the impact union voters will have on this election," Keady said. "Many union members are registered Democrats. Without the union support for Harris, there are going to be a lot of disenchanted union members that switch their votes this year for Republicans."

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.