Democratic, Republican strategists weigh in on whether abortion and Roe v Wade will effect Tuesday’s primary

Americans in seven states will head to the polls Tuesday for the first primary election since last week's landmark Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Those primary races will be the first indicators of how significantly the Dobbs ruling could motivate voters to get to the polls this election season.

Previously, factors such as inflation and the economy were expected to be the main drivers behind voter turnout. An NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist Poll poll, taken shortly after the Dobbs  v. Jackson Womens' Health Organization ruling was released, asked registered voters whether the court's decision made them more likely to vote. Sixty-two percent stated they are more likely to vote, while 26% said the ruling made no difference.

Now that the constitutional right to abortion has officially been struck down, some believe the issue of federalizing access to abortion will play a significant, maybe even defining, role in the 2022 elections. 

"I think [the Dobbs decision] is going to impact turnout a lot, particularly in the general election," Celinda Lake, a lead pollster for President Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign and the DNC, told Fox News. "In the primaries in both parties the candidates all tend to agree on this issue, but it probably will help women Democratic candidates.

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"In the general election it will increase turnout for sure," says Lake. "Democrats are overwhelmingly pro Roe v. Wade and pro a woman's right to choose. Those [polling] numbers are in the seventies, and we were having major turnout issues. As the president said, Roe is on the ballot."

Lake believes abortion rights and others like it will be just as important an issue to voters as any other. "I think voters will be focused on the economy but they will also be focused on what rights are being taken away including abortion, contraception, and marriage equality."

According to Lake, the renewed significance of abortion laws may very well help help Democrats maintain and even grow their caucuses in the House and Senate. "I think this is the way [for Democrats] to pick up several Senate seats and in close races, such as many House races, it could be the decisive factor. In addition, in the new reapportioned districts, many of them have a disproportionate amount of suburban vote, and I think this is going to matter a lot to suburban women."

Gail Gitcho, communications director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, says it’s predictable that Democrats will try to make this year’s elections all about abortion. "Of course the Democrats are going to try to ride this issue all the way to November," she tells Fox News. "What else can they talk about? Inflation? Crime? Results?"

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Gitcho doesn’t see that tactic paying off for Democrats. "Since the leak of the opinion it doesn’t appear to have moved any swing voters. The Democrats think it has helped fix some of their turnout issues, although there’s not much evidence of that. But now that the opinion is here and Roe has been overturned, attention is focused on what this actually means. And the voters are quickly discovering that it’s now a state issue.  Will this juice dem base turnout in California or New York? Maybe. Will it move swing voters in Georgia or Nevada? Nope, very unlikely. November will likely still be a beat down."

Corry Schiermeyer, a former official in the George W. Bush and Donald Trump administrations, also thinks the Dobbs decision is unlikely to have significant impact on primary or general election races, largely because the state of the economy will outrank its importance to voters. 

"I don't believe the Court's decision to overturn Roe will have a changing impact in the primaries, and only minimally in the general election," Schiermeyer says in a statement to Fox News. "For the general election, I do believe it was a gift to the Democrats to change the narrative for a while and spark more interest and turnout by Democrats and pro-choice Independents. That said, I believe most people will remain focused on the economic issues that they are faced with everyday such as gas prices, food prices, rent, and other bills that have increased significantly due to inflation. Pocket book issues will outweigh the impact of the Court's decision. If the economy was strong and prices were low, then the decision could have had a greater impact. But if people are still struggling to pay their bills, they will be more focused on economic issues, not social issues." 

Katie Miller, former communications director for Vice President Mike Pence, believes the Dobbs decision has given momentum to the Republicans.

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"The successful fifty-year effort to reverse Roe demonstrates clearly that pro-life voters are more motivated and more numerous than pro-abortion voters," Miller tells Fox News. "Now, with the Dobbs victory, and decisions about abortion laws returned to voters, pro-life Americans have a profound and powerful motivation to show up in November. It would be a huge mistake to underestimate the size and determination of the pro-life vote."

According to Miller, that momentum, coupled with voters’ dissatisfaction with the broader Biden agenda, give GOP candidates an unrivaled advantage.

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"At the same time, countless millions of voters will be heading to the polls to punish the party in power for historic levels of inflation, energy prices, crime, illegal immigration and drug overdoses, as well as our broken supply chains and the inability to get baby formula for children. Not to mention the unprecedented series of deadly foreign policy blunders overseas. Democrats are up against insurmountable headwinds due to their truly abysmal record."

Primary races are happening today in Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma and Utah.