Could GOP flip NH Senate seat? New poll says it’s in play in 2022

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NEWFIELDS, N.H. -- A new poll points to a potential Republican pickup in a likely crucial Senate contest in next year’s midterm elections, as the GOP tries to win back the chamber.

In a hypothetical 2022 Senate showdown, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire edges Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan 47%-41%, according to a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll released Wednesday.  The survey shows Sununu with an overwhelming advantage among Republican voters, Hassan with an equally overwhelming lead among Democrats, and the governor topping the senator by 20 points among independent voters.

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The poll is the second in recent weeks to show Sununu holding a single-digit edge over his predecessor as Granite State governor.

Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire holds a coronavirus pandemic briefing

New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque emphasized that the survey "sets the stage for what may become one of the most closely-watched races in the nation this cycle."

He spotlighted that Sununu’s single-digit advantage in the survey "is driven by a significant disparity in popularity between the two."

Two-thirds of those questioned in the poll said they approved of the job Sununu is doing as governor, with 31% disapproving. Hassan’s approval rating as senator approval stood at  47%-44%.

The Senate is split 50-50 between the two parties, but the Democrats hold a razor-thin majority, due to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, who serves as president of the Senate. That means the GOP only needs a one-seat pickup to regain the majority in next year’s elections.

But Republicans are defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. And they’re defending GOP-held open seats in the key battlegrounds of North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as well as the potentially competitive state of Ohio.

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While they play defense, Republicans are hoping to flip blue seats red in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., speaks during a Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and Senate Committee on Rules and Administration joint hearing examining the January 6, attack on the U.S. Capitol, Wednesday, March 3, 2021, in Washington. (Shawn Thew/Pool via /AP)

Hassan, who served two 2-year terms as governor before narrowly defeating Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in 2016 in a blockbuster Senate battle, announced in December that she would run for reelection.

Sununu, who along with Hassan lives in the small New Hampshire town of Newfields, appears to be opening the door a bit more to a potential Senate run. While in years past dismissing talk of a Senate bid, Sununu’s language appears to show he is more inclined to make a run.

Asked last month on a local radio program about a possible 2022 Senate run, the governor said he’s "definitely open to it … it’s something that I’m considering."

Fox News confirmed that Sununu recently spoke with Sen. Rick Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is the Senate GOP reelection arm. National Republicans would be thrilled if Sununu ends up challenging Hassan.

The release of the Saint Anselm College poll comes a couple of weeks after a University of New Hampshire survey pointed to Sununu holding a slight two-point edge over Hassan in a potential Senate matchup.

Ayotte may also be considering a run for Senate, or for governor if Sununu ends up launching a Senate campaign. The only declared Republican in the race at this early point is retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who’s making a second straight bid for the GOP Senate nomination.

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Responding to the survey, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Stewart Boss told Fox News that "Senator Hassan is a formidable and battle-tested incumbent who's going to win a second term next year no matter who runs against her."

Longtime New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley, pointing to the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill that won final passage on Wednesday, spotlighted that "Granite Staters know and trust that Senator Hassan is working tirelessly to get them the COVID relief they need."

Hassan joined every other Senate Democrat in voting for the massive package, while Sununu was one of two dozen governors who were critical of major portions of the measure.

The Saint Anselm poll also indicates President Biden’s approval rating in New Hampshire deteriorating from 53% approval and 45% disapproval last month to 50%-49% now. But the survey also shows the Democrats holding a 48%-40% advantage over the Republicans in the generic congressional ballot question. Both of the state's two congressional districts are currently controlled by Democrats.

The on-line survey was conducted March 4-6, with 871 registered voters in New Hampshire questioned. The poll’s overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.