Reporter's Notebook: What to expect from Congress in 2020

close

Video

Three big political predictions for 2020

Political analyst Ron Meyer offers up his predictions for trade deals and the 2020 race.

This is around the time of the winter break when children have busted most of the toys they acquired for Christmas and mom and dad can’t wait for the kids to go back to school. It kind of works this way in Congress, too.

Everyone has played with all of the toys over the holidays. Everyone has tired of their toys or broken them. And, lawmakers start to get antsy to head back to Capitol Hill.

We conceivably have another week-and-a-half or more of the interregnum.

No votes are scheduled in the Senate until Jan. 6, nothing in the House until Jan. 7. However, the prospects of a Senate trial – and any potential negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have loomed, and no one seemed to have any clue as to exactly what House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has had up her sleeve, clinging to the articles of impeachment adopted last month. The House has to vote to send the articles over to the Senate. If and when the speaker will ever send the articles to the Senate has remained unclear.

So, just about everyone in Washington has been focused on a Senate trial and if there ever will be a Senate trial, along with how long it would go, who would testify and whether any Republicans would defect. However, at this stage, there’s still no chance the Senate would convict and remove President Trump.

Video

So, what does Congress have on its docket this year once the impeachment trial wraps up?

Frankly, not a lot when it comes to significant legislation.

The Senate still needs to sync up with the House and approve the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement [USMCA]. McConnell said the Senate won’t tackle that until the trial is complete. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, scheduled a “markup” session for early January to prep USMCA for the floor. If the articles of impeachment remain in limbo, it’s possible the Senate could turn to the trade pact sooner rather than later.

The government is now funded through Sept. 30, 2020. The Senate likely will focus on confirming more judges. House Democrats surely will return to their “For the People” agenda, promoting voting rights, bolstering election security and curbing gun violence. Any future Supreme Court vacancy could make the confirmation battle over Justice Brett Kavanaugh look like Joe Burrow picking apart the Oklahoma secondary.

Video

There’s just not a lot of big-ticket legislative items on the docket. 2020 will be about politics, House and Senate elections and certainly the presidency.

It’s hard to judge if the House is in play. Even learned Republicans have conceded to Fox News there aren’t many pathways to the majority for the GOP this fall – even with impeachment. They noted that’s why so many House Republicans recently have retired. Certainly everyone will focus on the (now) 29 House Democrats who voted to impeach Trump -- and who represented districts Trump carried in 2016. The figure had been 31 Democrats who occupied districts the president won. But, Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey opposed the articles and switched parties to become a Republican. Rep. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., voted “nay” on both articles. Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, split his votes, supporting impeachment on the abuse of power article and opposing the article dealing with obstruction of Congress.

IMPEACHMENT SAGA SEES DEMS REPEATEDLY HAUNTED BY CLINTON-ERA COMMENTS

Republicans certainly will target those Democrats who backed impeachment, but it’s unclear if votes in favor of impeachment could be enough to flip the House to Republican control.

House Democrats likely will continue to pursue a host of investigations into the Trump administration and litigate subpoenas to get various officials to testify or provide documents. And, there is chatter that the House may not be done with impeachment articles. House Democrats have been leaving the door open for the potential pursuit of additional charges down the road.

Meantime, Democrats already have been targeting the Republican-controlled Senate as the “legislative graveyard” for dozens of bills approved by the House. It’s likely they’ll also make an issue over how “fair” a Senate trial may be and what that means for at-risk GOP senators from battleground states: Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa and maybe even John Cornyn of Texas, David Perdue of Georgia and Sen.-designate Kelly Loeffler of Georgia.

Video

Meantime, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Homeland Security Committee Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., and Grassley are likely to ramp up their inquiries into the 2016 election, government surveillance abuse, Ukraine and the Bidens.

And, the GOP Senate brass may try to engineer some challenging votes in 2020 to trip up the senators still seeking to unseat Trump on Election Day: Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Cory Booker, D-N.J., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Michael Bennet, D-Colo. And, consider if one of those senators were to become the presidential nominee. Senate Republicans likely will weaponize roll-call votes to get those senators on the record on controversial issues.

Plus, Republicans surely will concoct problematic roll call votes to make vulnerable Democrats sweat: think Sens. Doug Jones of Alabama, Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

And then, there is Trump himself. Without question, the president is the biggest factor on Capitol Hill in 2020. He always is. The president’s rallies, speeches, tweets and visits with Graham and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., certainly will dictate the political contours of Capitol Hill throughout the year. And, buckle up if there is yet another White House conclave with the president and Pelosi sometime in the next 12 months. The last two episodes have imploded in phenomenal fashion.

And, if the Democrat who wins the presidential nomination were to come from the Senate, the president will direct a lot of ire toward the other end of Pennsylvania Ave.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

So, it’s around that time of the holidays. Most of the toys from Christmas are broken. The batteries are dead. The kids are bored. People are itching to get back to Washington and stir things up.

2020 is an election year. And so, 2020 will be mostly about politics and not about legislation.