Can Obama Holocaust Comments Give Moderates Boost in Iran Election?
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}President Obama has over the past week fanned the flames of one of the hottest campaign issues in Iran -- Holocaust denial.
By invoking the issue, Obama could be attempting to give a boost to moderates in the race, who generally criticize Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's combative foreign policy approach, including his tendency to publicly question the Holocaust.
Ahmadinejad faces three challengers in Friday's election, and is considered potentially vulnerable. The Obama administration would have an interest in tipping the scales if possible -- along with the Lebanese election Sunday, Iran's could be critical in shaping the course of diplomacy, or lack thereof, between the United States and the Middle East.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}But in a country where polling is unreliable and no sitting president has ever lost reelection, it's unclear whether such rhetoric will have an impact on Iran's race.
Obama first broached the Holocaust denier issue during his speech to the Muslim world Thursday in Cairo. In the speech, he called for a "new beginning" between East and West, highlighting Muslim contributions to the modern world and accepting on behalf of the United States some share of the blame for spoiled relations.
But he also condemned Holocaust denial as "ignorant" and "hateful," a line clearly meant for the ears of Ahmadinejad -- and possibly those who would consider voting for him.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Bruce Riedel, foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the line was a challenge to Ahmadinejad's candidacy. He noted that the Iranian president's top challenger, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, disputes Ahmadinejad's Holocaust stance.
"This whole question (of Holocaust denial) has now become a campaign issue," Riedel said.
Obama didn't stop there. On his visit to the site of the Buchenwald concentration camp in Germany, the U.S. president told NBC that Ahmadinejad should visit the camp himself, suggesting he would find the tangible evidence irrefutable.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}"(Ahmadinejad) should make his own visit. You know, I was very explicit yesterday. I have no patience for people who would deny history. And, you know, the history of the Holocaust is not something speculative," Obama said.
During public remarks at Buchenwald, Obama again said, "there are those who insist that the Holocaust never happened -- a denial of fact and truth that is baseless and ignorant and hateful.
"This place is the ultimate rebuke to such thoughts, a reminder of our duty to confront those who would tell lies about our history," Obama said.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The topic continues to rank high in Iranian debate. In a rare, face-to-face live debate Wednesday, Mousavi ridiculed Ahmadinejad for his bombastic style. He said the Holocaust denial has cost Iran international standing and caused it to be increasingly isolated.
"Our nation's dignity has been harmed," Mousavi said. "We've been degraded."
But Ahmadinejad will not be easy to sweep away. His man-of-the-people credentials are still strong and his government has lavished backers with handouts that include checks worth the equivalent of $100 -- about a week's pay for a provincial government worker.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}He also has vast support among Iran's true leaders: the ruling clerics and their military wing known as the Revolutionary Guard.
A Brookings Institution analysis cast the election as critical to U.S. aims in the region, noting that a change in leadership could be a mixed blessing.
"The conclusion of this week's election will shape the outlook for diplomacy in ways that are unlikely to be straightforward," the article said. "A change in leadership would strengthen the Obama administration's case for engagement, but could also revive the factional infighting that paralyzed Tehran during the reformist heyday. Conversely, a second Ahmadinejad term might bolster Tehran's recalcitrance but also intensify the international community's urgency for dealing with Iran."
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking on ABC's "This Week," signaled the administration is watching closely.
Asked about U.S. efforts at renewed diplomacy with Iran, she said: "There is a process that takes place during an election. That will be over soon. And then we're going to hope to get a positive process going."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.