Beware the Ides of July: Trump assassination attempt, Biden ends reelection campaign in wild month

It’s customary for me to write a piece this month titled "Beware the Ides of August." It’s a take on Shakespeare, where Julius Caesar is warned "Beware the Ides of March." The middle of March is what spells doom for Caesar. And over the years, I have found that the month of August – often the midway point – to be the most dramatic, historic and often volatile period in politics and government.

Richard Nixon resigned the presidency in August 1974. The U.S. dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Martin Luther King Jr., gave his "I Have a Dream" speech in August 1963. There was the riot in Charlottesville, Va., in August 2017. There was even an earthquake in Washington, DC in August 2011. And not the political kind.

Will August 2024 measure up?

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July of 2024 is like, "August, hold my beer."

We’ve got a lot of August to go. But July earned a special spot in the pantheon of extraordinary political months. The shooting of former President Trump followed by the decision by President Biden to bow out of the 2024 campaign were extraordinary news events. And then there was the political hailstorm which pelted the news cycle for nearly three consecutive weeks after President Biden’s horrific debate performance in late June. We haven’t even mentioned the Republican convention in Milwaukee and Mr. Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio as his running mate. Those tectonic shifts were significant enough. But failed to rival the sheer intensity of the assassination attempt of the former President coupled with Mr. Biden dropping out.

An astonishing case study into the intensity of the July news cycle came on July 24. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was slated to deliver a controversial speech to a Joint Meeting of Congress. Bipartisan Congressional leaders - but mainly Republicans - invited Netanyahu to speak to Congress for a record fourth time. But Netanyahu’s address would temporarily take a backseat to some of the other events.

Consider how the story shifted throughout the day on July 24.

Netanyahu would have constituted the news lede early that morning during any other period. But the testimony of FBI Director Christopher Wray to the House Judiciary Committee that morning eclipsed Netanyahu for a time. Wray was already scheduled to appear before the panel prior to the Trump shooting. But the failed assassination of the former president now commanded most of the nation’s news oxygen. Especially with Wray appearing before a House committee to discuss the FBI’s inquiry into the shooting.

Netanyahu wasn’t due to speak to the Joint Meeting of Congress until the afternoon. But Netanyahu’s address infuriated the left and many pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel demonstrators. They flooded the streets of Washington and clashed with police. They burned American flags and hoisted Palestinian flags in front of Union Station, just blocks from the Capitol. The dramatic video and audacity of the demonstrations captured the news cycle for a bit before Netanyahu’s speech.

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Then came Netanyahu’s presentation to Congress. The news here was just not what the Israeli Prime Minister said. But multiple sub-angles highlighted the controversy of Netanyahu’s speech. Many Democrats boycotted the Joint Meeting. There was the fact that Vice President Harris – who serves as President of the Senate – did not preside because she was speaking to a Black sorority in Indiana. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., – the highest ranking Jewish member in Congressional history – refused to shake hands with Netanyahu on the House floor. Netanyahu railed against the demonstrators near the Capitol, calling them "useful idiots" for Iran. Democrats who did attend the speech lamented that Netanyahu failed to offer a plan to get hostages back or call for a ceasefire.

But by nightfall, Netanyahu was old news.

President Biden was now healthy enough after a bout with COVID. He planned to speak to the nation about his monumental decision against seeking a second term. Yes. The president formally told the nation via X on Sunday he was standing down. But a nationwide address to the country is another level.

Never mind that buried in all of this was the fact that Harris quickly wrapped up what appeared to be support from Democratic delegates and Democratic lawmakers to stand-in for Mr. Biden. The country was exploring who Harris was and determining how she measured up to former President Trump. There was also a deep dive amid this into Vance, his policy positions and explorations of his 2016 book, Hillbilly Elegy.

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There was a lot going on.

So August, beware. You have a lot to live up to.

Not that those of us involved in politics or media are asking for another hellish news cycle.

Sure. There will be the Democratic National Convention at the end of August in Chicago. Harris just selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate. There’s plenty to chew on. But these events don’t seem as dynamic as what we wrestled with in July.

That’s not to say that other major things won’t bubble up this month. The Middle East is white hot. There are grave concerns about a conflagration which could engulf the entire region. One could always fret about the chances of hostilities between China and Taiwan. Another major political narrative could emerge about former President Trump, Harris, Vance or Walz. Mr. Biden is still President and questions abound about his final months in office. And then there is the unknown. August has a way of surprising people with historic events and episodes which spring out of nowhere, shifting the course of history.

Iraq invaded Kuwait in early August, 1990, setting off the first Gulf War a few months later. The Soviets shot down a Korean jetliner in late August, 1983, killing an American congressman and hundreds of others. Walz was major political news. But the decision by 2008 Republican presidential nominee and late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., to select former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as his running mate was a shock. Tapping Walz paled in comparison to the Palin pick. Never mind that a hurricane cut short the GOP’s convention that year. That’s because in 2006, Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, forever altering the trajectory of former President George W. Bush.

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So, beware the ides of August – just because it’s August.

But last month, it was "Beware the Ides of July."