Arizona Senate poll: Masters closing on Kelly in tight margin-of-error race among definite voters

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Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Senate candidate Blake Masters join 'Hannity' to discuss their efforts to turn the state red.

Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters is surging in the final days of the midterm election campaign as he seeks to unseat Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, a new Marist poll finds.

With a little over three days to go until ballot boxes open, Kelly's lead over Masters has shrunk to just four percentage points among registered voters, down from 10 points last September. But among those who will "definitely vote," Kelly only leads Masters by three points (50% to 47 percent%). 

The poll finds that Kelly holds 49% support among registered voters, while Masters lags behind at 45%. 

Arizona's Senate race is now polling within the margin of error, and control of the U.S. Senate will be determined there and in a handful of other toss-up races. 

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Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, left, and his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, right, arrive on stage prior to a televised debate in Phoenix, Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022.  (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Blake Masters carries two-year-old son Rex to the stage at a campaign rally attended by former U.S. President Donald Trump at Legacy Sports USA on Oct. 9, 2022, in Mesa, Arizona. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

According to the survey, Kelly's lead comes from his strength with independent voters, who are supporting him by double-digits over Masters. Fifty-two% of independents say they support the Democrat, while only 36% say they favor the Republican. Kelly also leads Masters among women (54% to 39%), while Masters leads by five points among men (50% to 45% for Kelly). 

Less than half of Arizonans (47%) hold a favorable view of Kelly, but only 38% of voters have a favorable view of Masters. 

The Marist sample of 1,015 definite voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

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Sen. Mark Kelly and Democratic Gubernatorial candidate for Arizona Katie Hobbs wave during a campaign event with former US President Barack Obama in Phoenix, Arizona, on November 2, 2022.  (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Still, the environment in Arizona is benefiting Republican candidates. On a general ballot question, 50% of Arizonans who definitely plan to vote said they prefer Republican candidates running for Congress, compared to 46% who said they like Democrats. 

The top issues for Arizona voters are inflation (37%), preserving democracy (26%), abortion (15%), and immigration (12%). 

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"Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor face strong headwinds in Arizona. They have an unpopular Democratic president, a Republican statewide electorate, and the economy as a top of mind issue for many voters," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Right now, they are offsetting these disadvantages by carrying independents and attracting more Republican voters than their opponents are gaining among Democrats. This all adds up to two very close contests."

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The campaign for Arizona governor remains close as well. The Marist poll finds Democrat Katie Hobbs (49%) statistically tied with Republican Kari Lake (48%), 

Senate choice among Arizona voters in a Fox News Poll from October 26-30. (Fox News)

A Fox News survey of Arizona registered voters, released Tuesday, showed Kelly with a two-point lead over Masters (47% vs. 45%), within the margin of error.