Laura Fink: Battle for women swing voters – these facts counter Republican fear, fictions
Campaigns and media focus on so-called 'suburban' white women as a reliable set of swing voters
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The Democratic and Republican Conventions are over, and as the American flags are folded the ash from the fireworks swept away, one thing is clear – the battle for women swing voters has just begun.
Every election cycle, campaigns and the media focus on so-called “suburban” white women as a reliable set of swing voters. In 2020, increased polarization has left these swing voters smaller in number but taking up greater focus in the landscape of each party’s campaign.
Pundits and journalists always enjoy labeling them. Over the years they have been called “soccer moms” and then “security moms,” and this year President Trump has dubbed them “suburban housewives.” They defy each of these classifications. They confound political strategists – and elude traditional categories.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Last week, I wrote about the DNC’s attempt to persuade these voters to cast their ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden – deploying conservative speakers like former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and elevating Cindy McCain in a video highlighting the friendship between her late husband, Sen. John McCain and “Joe.” It was an unprecedented degree of bipartisanship at a partisan convention.
If the Democratic Convention appealed to these traditionally conservative white women using the art of gentle, bipartisan persuasion – the Republican convention attempted to shepherd them home through fear of the wolf.
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When they weren’t trying to scare white women back into the tent, they were working to hoodwink them – asking them to believe President Trump and his supporters rather than their own eyes. Ironically, the Trump RNC used the “identity politics” they so frequently decry – relying on the testimonials of Black Trump supporters to assert that he is not racist, and women to claim that he is both caring and fair.
Republicans are on defense, with polling numbers showing these women’s preference for Biden over Trump in the high single digits. These numbers are driven by their distaste for Trump’s callous and racially divisive leadership. They are also driven by his failed coronavirus response – and the economic fallout and human tragedy that is the result.
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The cast of Republican convention speakers was aimed squarely at bridging this divide. Melania Trump’s speech was the most powerful example. She did the yeoman’s work of attempting to counter the president’s unsympathetic leadership with her own compassionate style.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the GOP’s only sitting Black senator, tried to allay the concerns of swing voters with the power of his personal story – and claims of Trump’s effectiveness on issues of race.
These speakers may have been sincere in who they believe Trump to be, but their attempts to persuade swing-voting women will likely fall flat because they are asking these women to doubt their own eyes.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Four years and myriad examples of Trump’s racially divisive rhetoric and attacks against women do not fade from memory easily. The president refusing to acknowledge the racial injustice that has driven tens of millions of marchers into the streets belies the words of his surrogates.
The question now is whether the tactics of fear and fiction will ultimately be effective.
Similarly, advocates attempting to rewrite the history of Trump’s response to COVID-19 underestimate the women he is trying to persuade. Vice President Mike Pence’s calling it “the greatest national mobilization since World War II” and heaping praise on Trump’s leadership in the face of 180,000 Americans who have died is not only tone-deaf but condescending.
Women will remember the president’s early inaction, his denials that the virus was a problem, the PPE shortages, the petty damaging threats made to Democratic governors, and his inability to deploy testing and tracing or respect the guidance of scientists.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Fear joined fiction as the second prong of the Republican strategy. Time and again the primary convention speakers were aimed at scaring women who have strayed from the Republican flock.
Pence crystallized the message of several other convention speakers when he said, “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America.” Speakers talked about radical Democrats and Marxists ending law and order. They used the racial dog whistle of Joe Biden “destroying the suburbs” – and stoked fears he would give free rein to criminals and rioters. Patricia and Mark McCloskey claimed, “No matter where you live, your family will not be safe in the radical Democrats’ America”.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The question now is whether the tactics of fear and fiction will ultimately be effective. In 2018, Republicans used these same strategies in swing state campaigns. They used identity politics and fear tactics in that election too – and ended up losing control of the House.
The lesson from these losses is clear: underestimate conservative women swing voters at your peril. Neither party should doubt their ability to tell fact from fiction – or ever treat them like sheep.