I believe that Biden doesn’t fear Putin: Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reveals if he thinks President Biden wants Ukraine to win and a message for Russian President Putin on ‘Special Report.’
Ukraine won phase one by stopping Russia from encircling Kyiv. With both sides regrouping as Russia bombs cities, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin all face big choices.
First, Zelenskyy: Should the Ukrainian president counterattack or give up territory to get a cease-fire? Zelenskyy said the war is at a "turning point" in a March 30 video. He needs more equipment to wage multiple fights to push Russia back. Right now, Ukraine is counterattacking several sites, including Kherson, which Russia took March 2. The big dilemma is Mariupol. If Ukraine can stall Russia there, Zelenskyy would score another major victory.
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Zelenskyy has said since 2019 that he won’t give up territory to Russia. His choices depend on whether Ukraine’s people can hold on as ground forces fight back. "I don’t believe in any negotiation with Russia, ever," Sgt. Anton Kolumbet of Ukraine’s army told the Washington Post on Thursday. "The only language that Russia understands is the language of force."
WITHOUT RONALD REAGAN, THERE WOULD BE NO VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY
Adding to that resolve, on the ground the military forecast for Ukraine is not bad. NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Tod Wolters said March 29 that Ukraine’s forces learn fast and can "inflict more stalling" on Russia. He and Gen, Jacqueline von Ovost, head of U.S. Transportation Command, told Congress the Ukraine supply routes have not been hit so far, Russia hasn’t disrupted Ukraine’s command and control of its forces, and even Russia’s best tanks have "chinks in their armor" when Ukraine employs the right tactics.
It’s a shame Biden and NATO still have no clear strategy to help Ukraine win. On Thursday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. wants Ukraine to win. Biden has yet to declare that policy.
Face it, the White House has been in reaction mode all along. Advisers like Gen. Mark Milley said in February that Kyiv could fall in five days. That’s why Team Biden evacuated the U.S. embassy and infamously offered Zelenskyy a ride out of his own country.
Sadly, White House fear of Russian escalation is stifling development of a new strategy for the next phase of the war.
Team Biden’s plan was to stick with sanctions and the campaign of canny, anti-Russia intelligence leaks on false flags, the plan to catch Zelenskyy, protest letters to Putin, and this week’s entries, the claims that Russian soldiers are sabotaging their own weapons while defense officials aren’t telling Putin he’s losing the war.
All that’s fine, but it’s kept Team Biden from intensifying military assistance to help Ukraine win the war. That means improved air defenses, faster munitions delivery, and probably some tactical coaching and surveillance help, too.
Sadly, White House fear of Russian escalation is stifling development of a new strategy for the next phase of the war. Remember Biden is all emotions and no statesmanship.
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Then there is Putin. His plan to topple Zelenskyy and break up Ukraine into puppet "People’s Republics" failed. Unfortunately, Putin still has over 150,000 forces in Ukraine and several vicious options to continue the war.
Russia can bomb Ukraine’s cities for a long time to pressure Zelenskyy. The Pentagon says they have the "vast majority" of their bomb and missile inventory still intact. Already Russia is flying 300 sorties per day against Ukraine, up 50% from two weeks ago.
Of course, Putin could escalate with terror weapons. But I think that from a military perspective, the risks of Russian escalation are going down, not up. NATO has more forces ready to react if Russia strikes west. As Russia moves the fight east, Putin can’t easily use nuclear weapons there; the radiation will blow back into Russia. Crude chemical weapons, such as the barrel-bomb attacks seen in Syria, won’t yield tactical results.
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Watch for Russia to ramp up the ground war. Russian spokesmen said they will focus on the Donbas. Russia may still be hampered by the stodgy command and control that slowed its Kyiv advance but fighting near its own borders could reduce logistics problems. Mercenaries from the Wagner Group will join other Russian reinforcements. Don’t forget there are actual trenches in parts of the Donbass.
The best way to bring peace is through Ukraine’s defeat of Russia on the battlefield. It can’t be done without more of America’s help.
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