These seven midterm ballot questions could change the country

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Obama’s influence: Voters in battleground states weigh former president's impact

Citizens in Arizona and Nevada weigh 44th President’s sway on midterms.

Investors are following with an eagle eye next week’s tight midterm elections for United States Senate and a dozen or so close gubernatorial races.  

Overlooked have been a slew of state ballot initiatives that could have a major influence on these states’ economic direction - and the national economy as well.

Overall there are dozens of direct democracy referendum and initiative measures that will be voted on. Below I highlight the ones that taxpayers and investors should be following most closely with some fearless forecasts of how they are likely to turn out.

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Arizona

Proposition 132: Supermajority vote to raise taxes

Requires a 60 percent majority popular vote for any ballot initiative that increases taxes to be approved. This bolsters protections for Arizona taxpayers against tax hikes. Close call, but more likely to pass.

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California

Proposition 30: income tax surcharge

This may be the most important of all the initiatives. It would impose a $5 billion income tax surcharge of 1.75 percent on earnings over $2 million with the money used to fund electric vehicles. This would push the top income tax rate in California over 15 percent – far higher than New York’s 13 percent top rate. The measure is such a killer for small businesses that even Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom opposes it. This measure is almost certain to lose.

Colorado

Proposition 121: income tax cut

This would reduce the state income tax rate to 4.40 percent from 4.55 percent, saving the average taxpayer around $120 annually. Likely to pass.

Illinois

Amendment 1: make right-to-work illegal in Illinois

Everyone across the country should be pay attention to this one. It would create a "fundamental right" to collective bargaining in the state constitution and permanently ban Right-to-Work laws (which have been enacted in 27 states). This dangerous amendment would raise costs for Illinois taxpayers and likely chase businesses out of the state. It is close but likely to fail.

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Massachusetts

Question 1: income tax surcharge on the wealthy

Imposes a new four percent tax on earnings over $1 million per year. It would end the commonwealth's existing flat tax structure and bring the state’s income tax rate to the sixth-highest in the nation. Progressives have tried this many times before, and it has always failed as seems likely this year.

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Nebraska

Initiative 433: $15 minimum wage

Would Increase the state minimum wage to $15-per-hour by 2026, and index it for inflation into the future. Not likely to pass in conservative Nebraska.

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Tennessee

Constitutional Amendment 1: enshrine right-to-work in state constitution

This measure would add right-to-work – barring employers from requiring union membership as a condition of employment – to the state constitution. It is the opposite of the Illinois measure. It will likely pass.

For more information on these and other ballot initiatives that will be voted on next Tuesday visit Americans for Tax Reform or Ballotpedia websites. 

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