Tom Del Beccaro: Sanders ready on Super Tuesday to raid California delegate gold mine
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The Super Tuesday primaries matter this year more than ever. That's because delegate-rich California has moved up its primary in 2020 and joins Texas, another newcomer, in the Super Tuesday sweepstakes.
Fourteen states in all, representing approximately 40 percent of the nation’s population, will hold primaries this Tuesday. This has been described as a “national primary” and that’s not wrong. Such a huge contest puts a premium on strong campaign organizations and Bernie Sanders has the best.
For decades, California politicians, and many of its citizens, have wanted the Golden State to have a greater say in choosing who will be the presidential nominees of the two major political parties.
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For all of those who have waited, 2020 is that year. California has 494 Democrat delegates at stake on Tuesday. That figure represents just under 25 percent of all the delegates needed to win the Democrat nomination on the first ballot.
With states as diverse in population as California and Oklahoma and in localities as far apart as California and Maine, Super Tuesday is truly a national event – and, because all Democrat primaries are not winner take all primaries, candidates have the chance or the need to fight it out in as many states as possible.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}So, what does it take to come out on top in those 14 primaries? The answer is not new – it is a strong campaign operation matched with momentum and money.
It is important to note that television ads alone are not enough. The campaigns must be able to get their supporters to the polls. Given the size of all the states participating in Super Tuesday primaries that is no easy task for many of the candidates.
As I wrote last March for Fox News Opinion when I predicted Bernie would be the nominee:
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}“Putting together a national campaign requires lots of people working and volunteering for you. Hiring people requires money but it also is a difficult and time-consuming task if you are running for the first time. You literally need to meet new people in state after state.”
Nationwide, the Democrats’ current frontrunner, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. has more assets in his favor than anyone else. Sanders has momentum, money (including record fundraising of over $45 million in February), too many rival candidates dividing up the rest of the Democrat vote AND by far the best campaign organization.
Nowhere is that truer than in California. Bernie’s supporters nearly took over the California Democratic Party four years ago. His organization has been gathering volunteers and contacting voters relentlessly of late – but to some degree, they have never stopped working for him over the last 5 years.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}So, what can we expect on Super Tuesday?
The polls indicate that Bernie Sanders is leading in the three of the four largest Super Tuesday states, including Texas with its 291 delegates and in Virginia with its 99 delegates. Overall, Sanders currently has poll leads in 8 of the 14 states.
California, where Bernie is by far the strongest, has a three-tiered primary system. It’s complicated, so bear with me.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}First, 271 delegates are awarded on the basis of the vote in each congressional district. Another 90 of those delegates are awarded on a statewide basis.
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Only candidates that garner more than 15 percent of the statewide poll or in each congressional district are eligible to get delegates.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The remaining delegates are party leaders and officials, i.e. California super delegates – many of whom support Bernie.
In California’s leading poll, the PPIC poll, Sanders was the only candidate to poll above 15 percent statewide.
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Biden’s polling average is only 11 percent in the state, which could mean he could get none (or very few) of the more than 360 delegates chosen by the California voters.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The same holds true for the other candidates who are dividing up the rest of the vote.
Finally, keep in mind that California employs month-long early voting, which means the following:
- Bernie's fans have been voting for a month before other candidates had the money to come to California.
- Biden's South Carolina victory on Saturday will have a limited impact.
- Even though billionaire businessman Tom Steyer and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race over the weekend, they, along with former rivals Andrew Yang, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson still remain on the California primary ballot (and in other states). By dropping out so close to Super Tuesday, they have already taken votes away from Biden, Bloomberg, Warren and Klobuchar in early voting. This fact may make it difficult for these four contenders to get above the required 15 percent of the votes cast -- unless, of course, enough of their remaining supporters vote for one of those four.
If the actual vote total on Tuesday night plays out as recent polls indicate Sanders could easily wind up with 250 to 300 delegates from California alone – or 12 to 15 percent of the delegates he needs to win the Democrat nomination on the first ballot.
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That would also mean that Sanders will have the most delegates by the end of Super Tuesday by a significant margin.
Bottom line: Super Tuesday should make Sanders the solid front runner for the Democratic nomination with a large delegate lead. That lead will make the Democrat establishment burn not to mention fuel a long, hot summer of Democrat Party infighting -- all to the glee of Republicans.
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