Russian President Vladimir Putin is baiting Ukraine with artillery shelling, cyber attacks, mysterious explosions in Eastern Ukraine and nuclear missile drills featuring bombers and hypersonic missiles.
With President Biden’s economic deterrence against Russia teetering, keep your eyes on Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Russia is "uncoiling those forces and poised to strike," Austin said in Lithuania on Saturday. If Russia attacks, Biden will look to Austin to confirm it and recommend America’s next military move.
Austin, a retired Army four-star general, is by law the man who gives the president’s orders to the military. He’s the direct chain of command from Biden to U.S. and NATO forces in Europe (and around the world).
THIS IS BIDEN'S LAST CHANCE TO DETER PUTIN IN UKRAINE
All the crazy tactics from Putin’s playbook are no surprise to Austin.
Austin played it cool on his visit to Europe. He’s not about to be rattled by Russia’s attempts at provocation but he’s watching Putin like a hawk.
"We see some of those troops inch closer to that border," Austin said of Russian forces on Thursday. "We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft, we see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea. We even see them stocking up their blood supplies."
But Austin is aware of Putin’s darker intent. "I was a soldier myself not that long ago," Austin said from Brussels. "I know first-hand you don’t do these sorts of things for no reason."
The U.S. military is still the glue for the international system. With the world watching, here are the six things Austin must continue to do.
Bolster NATO. Austin says he’s never seen NATO more united or resolute. In part, that’s because Austin is giving NATO members frequent tactical updates on where the 150,000 Russian forces are, and if they are in attack position or not. Speaking in Lithuania Saturday, Austin said he’s ready to send American forces if NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg activates the NATO response force.
Keep Ukraine Calm and Confident. That "situational awareness," as the military likes to say, is vital for Ukraine, too. Kyiv can downplay the Russian artillery firing on the ceasefire line in part because the NATO overwatch assures Ukraine that Russians aren’t crossing into Ukraine at the same moment. Sharing this tactical information, some of which is very sensitive, is part of Austin’s job and it’s a crucial ingredient for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s day-to-day decisions.
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Stay Vigilant. Austin’s got this. Combat surveillance aircraft from the U.S. and NATO are saturating the skies from Helsinki to Istanbul right now. It’s a 1,300-mile air curtain with planes to listen for Russian tactical radio signals and monitor the 150,000 forces deployed by Putin. Austin has to keep ‘em flying, as he did by sending extra F-35 stealth fighters from Utah to Germany on Wednesday and adding select ground forces at eastern NATO bases.
Fight the Info War. In this first big war crisis of the social media age, information is everything. A splash of U.S. intelligence can unmask Putin’s plans. Austin must keep choosing the right intelligence to drop publicly from the White House, State Department, the Pentagon, etc. Each reveal of a Russian battle plan or "false flag" sabotage scheme peels away Putin’s options.
Make the Tough Calls on Russian provocations. The U.S. and Britain expect Russia will manufacture a crisis. It may be artillery shelling, cyber attacks, terrorist bombs, and fake or real chemical weapons events. If an incident flares up, Austin will be the one to weigh in on whether it’s a brief situation that Ukraine should ride out, or step one of an invasion.
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Look to America’s Defenses. Since it’s war started by Russia we’re discussing here, the prudent move is to fortify military cyber defenses, monitor American space assets on orbit, adjust force protection levels for our service members, and keep an eye out for Russian mischief directed at Americans abroad and at home. Austin’s probably done it already.
There is still time to avert war, according to Austin. Hopefully Putin will cave and de-escalate. If he does, it will be Austin who verifies that yes, Russian forces are moving back in a significant way. "We will match Russian words to Russian deeds," Austin said Thursday.