Gen. Kellogg: US must ‘decouple’ Russia’s energy stranglehold over Europe to stop Putin
Former national security adviser Keith Kellogg discusses Pentagon intelligence on a possible invasion of Ukraine.
America can’t sit this one out. Backed up by China, Putin has yanked fresh U.S. military forces into Europe. As months go by, the U.S. will be stretched thin covering NATO’s eastern flank plus the Pacific where China looms. Add in seven percent annual inflation, and it’s a huge cost in the defense budget.
George Washington told us to beware of foreign entanglements. Wouldn’t that be nice? However, just like in 1939, evil is once again bubbling up from central Europe. Vladimir Putin has 130,000 forces ready to unleash war on 44 million people in Ukraine for reasons that start and stop with Putin and his personal delusions.
Until just a few weeks ago, nobody thought the US would actually have to get involved in defending Ukraine against Russia. But the new geopolitical reality of this crisis has stark long-term consequences, and here’s why:
China’s involved.
When Xi Jinping backed up Putin, that really sealed it. The Feb. 4 agreement between Putin and Xi Jinping – during the Olympics, no less – put in place an alliance that runs on oil and gas and will help China and Russia bedevil America. Already, China has helped Iran and North Korea defy sanctions. Now they are poised to help Russia, too. If the U.S. ignores Ukraine, that’s a win for China.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at the Kremlin, in Moscow. (Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
A lot of this is Biden’s fault.
Biden started telephoning Putin to complain about Ukraine last spring, and the Geneva Summit in June 2020 was supposed to be about Ukraine. Putin steamrollered on. Then came the fall of Afghanistan, which showed Biden was clumsy as commander in chief. No wonder Putin sees Biden’s presidency as an opportunity to push NATO away from Ukraine. Putin’s wrong; NATO is strong, but a loss over Ukraine will eat at the alliance and leave NATO members vulnerable to China’s economic temptations.
REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: RUSSIA'S INTENTIONS EMERGE WITH UKRAINE TROOP BUILDUP
Watching Ukraine’s democracy suffer under bloody assault will be unbearable.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday to expect "aerial bombing and artillery," then a massive ground invasion if Putin strikes. Just look at how Russia handled Syria. Hospitals bombed massive artillery shelling, and forget precision weapons. Russian military doctrine prizes mass firepower. Urban fighting would be "horrific" said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley. Already we are seeing riveting pictures of citizens of Ukraine training with guns. Americans will have to watch it all unfold on TV and social media.
A participant of an open civil defense exercise aims at a target, Uzhhorod, western Ukraine. (Serhii Hudak/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
The U.S. military will be stretched.
Even if no one helps Ukraine, don’t think the crisis in Eastern Europe will end. NATO allies and partners are scared. With Russia holding Ukraine and Belarus, augmented U.S. forces will be in Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and maybe Hungary, too, for a very long time. Simultaneously, U.S. forces will have to be on high alert as China reaches toward Taiwan and helps Iran carry on with its nuclear blackmail. Don’t forget there are two fresh domains: space and cyberspace. Russia has killer satellite capabilities and very evil cyber tools. Picture Putin victorious in Ukraine – no telling what he could try next. The Pentagon is already scrambling to invest in hypersonic weapons and other modern systems to keep pace with China’s threat. Massed power in Europe will drive huge costs that don’t advance American military technology.
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Invading Ukraine is bad for Russians.
Leave aside the casualty predictions for a moment. Taking Ukraine is a bad business decision. Although Putin has tried to prepare by divesting dollars, sanctions will hurt. It will take years for trade and investment flows to recover back to the point where Russia’s economy can grow. That’s bad for America because it will deepen Russia’s dependence on China. If Putin deescalates and the Minsk talks resume the economic forecast for Russia is better, and there’s at least an option for natural tensions to unwind the China-Russia links.
Ukrainians pray as they take part in a military training for residents, which was organized by far-right activists in Kyiv.
Any way you slice it, a Russian takeover of Ukraine emboldens China. That’s why America can’t sit this one out. U.S. airpower with NATO could do a lot to foil Putin’s plans, if activated. Of course, Biden and NATO leaders can do nothing unless President Zelensky requests direct military help.
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Those amassed Russian forces around Ukraine are tilting the world toward China. Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once asked: "Who do we want to provide leadership in the world? Somebody else?"
Let’s be clear. The choice is here. Stepping back to let Russia and China do their worst with Ukraine means retreat for U.S. leadership.
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