Republicans have to get real about abortion to win in 2024

For Republicans, the fight over abortion is a matter of conscience; it is also quickly becoming a matter of survival. 

In recent days, Nebraska attempted to pass a law banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, at which point a heartbeat can normally be detected. The legislature moved to end a filibuster and allow a vote on the so-called "heartbeat" measure; the move, and the strict limits, failed by one vote. The holdout, an octogenarian Republican named Merv Riepe, argued for a 12-week limit, allowing women more time to realize they are pregnant and to make a difficult choice.

It was the second attempt in two years to tighten Nebraska’s abortion laws, and the second failure. Since 2010, abortions have been legal in the state up to the 20th week of pregnancy. 

South Carolina, too, failed to pass a near-total ban on abortions (for the third time this year), thanks to a multi-day filibuster carried out by the state Senate’s five female legislators. The proposed bill would have banned abortions at conception, with exceptions made for rape or incest within the first six weeks. It was the third time this past year that the legislature has failed to pass a similarly restrictive measure.

NEAR-TOTAL ABORTION BANS FAIL IN SOUTH CAROLINA, NEBRASKA AS REPUBLICAN HOLDOUTS EXPRESS CONCERNS

In the Palmetto State, independent Sen. Mia McCleod, threatened to tie banning abortions to denying men access to erectile dysfunction medications. She had proposed such a bill in 2016, as a member of the state’s House. 

"I don’t believe senators or representatives need to be focused on abortion or erectile dysfunction… if we are going to insist upon governing any of it, I’m going to insist we govern all of it."

Maybe McCleod’s message was clear: men are trying to control women’s bodies, and she and her colleagues cannot allow that to happen.  

The 2022 overturning of Roe v Wade has again thrust abortion policy into the spotlight. Democrats have demonstrated their preferences by passing, in 2019, for example, a New York law allowing abortion at any time up to delivery at nine months, offering virtually zero protections for a viable fetus. 

This is how extreme Democrats have become on abortion; this is the kind of law they want to enact across the country.

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At the same time, Republicans are busily constructing their own extreme abortion policies. In numerous states, legislators have proposed near-total bans on the procedure, which is not sitting well with voters, even those in red states.

In addition to Nebraska and South Carolina anti-abortion efforts also flopped last year in Kansas, which President Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2020. Kansas had already enacted some limitations to abortion but voters shocked many by voting down a more severe ban 59% to 41%. That 59% is exactly the same portion of the country that disapproved of the overturning of Roe v Wade.

That drastic limitations on abortion are proving unpopular should come as no surprise. Thorough and convincing polling over many years shows Americans think abortions should be legal and available but with restrictions. 

A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll shows 61% of the country supports abortion rights, including one-third of Republicans. But they also – unlike New York Democrats – support limits on the procedure. 

As NPR reports: "Two-thirds say abortion should only be allowed, at most, within the first three months during pregnancy. Most Republicans (86%) and independents (73%) favor restricting abortion to, at most, the first trimester of pregnancy. While a majority of Democrats (58%) favor a longer window for abortions to be performed, even 42% of Democrats want limitations."

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Less than one quarter of Americans think that abortion should be permitted at any time during pregnancy. 

Republican lawmakers who want to enact severe limits on abortion, like the six-week law endorsed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, may win support from evangelicals or other religious groups, but those groups do not represent the majority of the country. DeSantis should have refused to sign the law until Florida voters were given a chance to weigh in through a referendum; almost surely the proposal would have failed. Local polling last year showed a majority of state residents opposing even a less restrictive measure. 

The writing is on the wall. Democrats, and especially women, are energized not by Joe Biden, but by the abortion issue. We saw anger over proposed abortion restrictions recently elect a liberal jurist to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and we saw undeserving candidates like John Fetterman win important contests in 2022 thanks to well-organized opposition to pro-life Republicans.

In upcoming elections, Republicans can continue to champion unpopular restrictions on abortion or they can find a middle ground and move toward the majority and start winning. South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace is a Republican who calls herself "pro-life" but occupies a middle ground, accepting up to 15-20 weeks of pregnancy. 

She discussed her views in a recent interview with "Face the Nation," saying, "We have to as Republicans show compassion towards women and life. I mean, you can do both and win. That's why I say 15 to 20 weeks, that's something even pro-Life groups like Susan B. Anthony's list … two years ago they were for 20 weeks with exceptions." 

In addition to taking a moderate stance on terminating pregnancies, Republicans need to drive down demand for abortions by working to make birth control universally available and to help provide alternatives, such as more accessible adoption services and foster care. Most of all, the GOP needs to demonstrate compassion for women as well as for the unborn. 

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Pro-life advocates should realize that if the GOP continues to lose elections, they will lose the war, and not just the battle. There are other priorities important to religious groups like school choice and limited government that Republicans alone will champion. Moreover, continued losses by the GOP could result in a newly liberal Supreme Court, which could undermine important religious freedoms. 

Republicans claim to embrace individual responsibility and freedom; abortion decisions are among the most personal and difficult choices a woman must make. Let us allow her to make them.

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