Destroying a city is a Russian army specialty. Kyiv is next.
"Don’t let Putin turn Ukraine into Syria," Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted after the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting today.
Sadly, Russia under Putin has recent experience blowing up cities as seen in Aleppo in Syria in 2016 and in Grozny in the second Chechen war in 1999-2000, where tens of thousands died.
Putin wants Kyiv. Especially if he can’t catch Zelensky.
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"His only instinct is going to be to double down and to try and 'Grozny-fy' Kyiv," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Mar. 2.
"He will, in his own words, carry out his operation to ‘de-Nazify’ Ukraine to the end," French President Emanuel Macron said after his phone call with Putin Thursday.
The battle for Kyiv will decide the course of the war and set Europe’s security challenges for a generation. Putin's model of glory is the 1945 Red Army conquest of Hitler's Berlin.
The battle for Kyiv will decide the course of the war and set Europe’s security challenges for a generation. Putin's model of glory is the 1945 Red Army conquest of Hitler's Berlin. As the Red Army wiped away Nazis in World War II, so Putin want to see his armies to sweep across Ukraine. This is a delusional conquest. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Ukraine is full of patriots who want democracy.
Vladimir President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine only eight months after TIME magazine billed President Biden as ready to take on the Russian leader. (Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
The city fight is familiar ground for Putin. He craves this battle. Twisted Putin thinks he will become greater than Lenin and Khrushchev by standing up for Russia and taking back all of Ukraine. World opinion on casualties won’t affect him. A Russian flag over smoking rubble is his goal.
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President Biden and Europe and the world have at most a few days left to make sure Ukraine's fighting forces are supplied for what lies ahead. It may soon be down to hours.
Tanks are already probing Kyiv suburbs. At some point, the Russian convoy north of Kyiv will move down to encircle the city.
A cultural and community centre, which locals said was destroyed by recent shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in the settlement of Byshiv in the Kyiv region, Ukraine March 4, 2022. (REUTERS/Maksim Levin)
First, Ukraine must keep a supply route open out to the west even under attack. Fighting for Kyiv will consume Ukraine’s weapons and supplies, fast. Ukraine’s armed forces claim they’ve destroyed many Russian tanks and vehicles, which is good, but it also means they are using up Javelin anti-tank missiles. The U.S. and NATO should do whatever it takes to help Ukraine hold airfields and roads in Ukraine’s west. Few Russian forces are in that area so far.
Next, Ukraine says they are going on the counter-offensive. As the Russian convoy north of Kyiv moves south, they must pick their targets carefully. Yes, Ukraine should strike Russian tanks, but their overall aim should be to break up and harass Russian formations by hitting resupply vehicles, too.
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Ukraine can also disrupt Russian command and control. For example, that Russian supply convoy north of Kyiv has a mobile command post, with officers near it, and a known electronic signature squawking out even if they try to mask it. All are targets.
Of course, Ukrainian forces will find their own communications disrupted by street-to-street fighting around buildings and by Russian electronic warfare. The U.S. and NATO can help, with links to up to satellites, drones or other radio relays to stay in contact.
The one thing that would stop Putin from taking Kyiv is a strong no-fly zone. All week Zelensky and his officials have repeatedly asked NATO for help to "close the skies." The answer’s been no.
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If Kyiv is encircled, it’s not over. Ukraine’s defenders may end up attacking Russian forces in the city while other Ukrainian forces hit the siege lines from outside.
Senior Russian commanders know in their bones that a pitched fight in Kyiv will be hell. The Russian army in 1942-1943 swallowed up entire German divisions at Stalingrad. Today’s Russian generals had grandfathers and great-grandfathers in that fight. Their defense of Stalingrad was glorious. Now the tables are turned. The Russians invading Ukraine are on the wrong side morally – and tactically.
If NATO keeps helping, Russia will lose the city fight.
A man stands next to a burnt car near a cultural and community centre, which locals said was destroyed by recent shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in the settlement of Byshiv in the Kyiv region, Ukraine on March 4, 2022. ( REUTERS/Maksim Levin)
Many wonder if direct U.S. and NATO military help to Kyiv under siege risks nuclear escalation. Considering the long history of US and Russian nuclear confrontation, I'd say no. Putin will do anything to take Kyiv – except nuke it.
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Here’s why. A Russian tactical nuclear strike would affect Russian forces as well as Ukrainians. Remember also that Putin intends to "save" and occupy Ukraine. Radiation is not part of his plan. And for all his veiled threats, Putin knows full well that the extended nuclear deterrence endorsed by every U.S. President since Truman is still in place.
Let’s go save Ukraine.
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