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Democrats will meet in Chicago Monday to kick off their convention and nominate Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as their 2024 Ticket.
Democrats met in Chicago in 1996. More than a decade earlier, when they met in Chicago, they also nominated a sitting vice president (after their eligible-for-reelection President Lyndon Johnson dropped out of the race). That was 1968. The vice president was Hubert Humphrey…the convention underscored the party divisions over Vietnam…and protests in Chicago devolved into riots and wound up only underscoring party divisions and essentially guaranteed a Republican victory that year. Arguably, it also led to the Democratic Party being relegated to minority status for a generation.
Heading into Chicago half a century later, the Democrats this time around appear unified. They seem enthusiastically confident of victory and it is the Republican campaign that appears flummoxed about how to spring back from Biden’s decision to drop out and the Democrats quick pivot to supporting Harris’ candidacy.
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But will the Democrats use their convention effectively?
They need to.
Because the media’s optimistic conventional wisdom is looking at reality through blue-tinted glasses. They’re responding to the raucous crowds at Harris-Walz rallies – and have shifted from "Biden sleepwalking to November rout" to "likely blue wave." Some even suggest November will bring Democratic majorities in the House and even the Senate, where the Democrats still face almost impossible odds.
But the polls still show former President Donald Trump’s strength with the national electorate – and leading in enough battleground states to get an Electoral College majority.
Democrats aren’t going to chip away at Donald Trump's support with more negative statements. But they might be able to get folks to decide that, yes, it’s time to for a ‘new generation.’
Last week’s Fox News poll has Trump up one point over Harris 50-49 nationally. Other respected public polls have Trump at 49 or 48. Even if Trump loses the popular vote 52-48, he should still be considered a likely winner. Remember he lost the popular vote by wide margins in both 2016 and 2020, but he won the Electoral College in 2016 and just barely lost it in 2020.
In both years, Trump did about two points better in the key battleground states than in the national popular vote. The implication for 2024: If he hits 48 in the popular vote, he could still easily get to 50% in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – and return to the White House.
And Trump’s "number" – his share of the national vote – has hovered around 48 for much of the year. Early in this cycle, that was bad news for Trump: the former president’s number didn’t go up even after Biden’s disastrous performance in the debate. Now, there’s good news: It doesn’t seem to be going down even as Harris picks up support among Democratic and Democratic-aligned independent voters.
So, the challenge for the Chicago Democrats is clear: Can they chip away at Trump’s apparent national bloc of support?
Nowadays, party conventions are the best opportunity for each party to make their case to the public. They’re no longer the place for back-room machinations – other than younger politicians trying to build their careers for the future. Conventions provide four days of television time – when many voters – especially casual followers of politics – get their first real opportunity to learn something about the party's presidential and vice presidential candidates.
Here are three key things to look for in judging whether the Democrats are succeeding. Note: the judgment won’t be clear until the dust has settled after the convention – likely not until after Labor Day.
1. Are they Making the Case for Joe Biden?
Yes, Joe Biden. His name may no longer be on the ballot…but the record of his administration is very much on the minds of voters. Democrats, especially the elites, say he’s been a tremendous success. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – after playing Brutus in pushing her long-time friend off the ballot – said he belonged on Mt. Rushmore. But the voters remain skeptical. Last week’s Fox poll had his job performance at 41% -- just 1 point above his four-year low. That’s a problem – as it is a major reason why Trump’s term in office looks good by comparison.
There might still be hope for Biden. After all, folks always speak highly at a retirement party. The Convention needs to try to make the case that the economy has grown – while not belittling the challenges of inflation (something the Biden folks have failed badly at). They need to provide a narrative for the set of legislative achievements: the infrastructure investment; investments in addressing climate problems; addressing the cost of prescription drugs and the like – that most voters see as inside baseball pieces of paper rather than government actions that helped them personally. And they need to explain what is going on internationally – the largest war in Europe in 80 years, and a long war in Gaza – that is threatening to tear apart the party – and may spill into the streets of Chicago.
2. Are they Building a Firm Foundation of What People Should Know About Harris … and Walz?
Yes, almost every American voter knows that Kamala Harris is the first female vice president, and that she’s of African-American and Indian descent. But how many people know much real information about her beyond that she had some viral "word salad" responses to questions and that she has a laugh that some view as "strange?"
Similarly, folks have heard Tim Walz’ name – they may know that he’s a former football coach or even that he’s governor of a Midwestern state.
But the dearth of deeper knowledge about both nominees has enabled Republicans to provide information focused on Harris’ liberal stances in her failed 2020 campaign – and her subsequent flip-flops on most of them.
Similarly, questions have been raised about why Walz retired from the National Guard (was it to avoid service in Iraq?) and whether he’s from the Bernie Sanders’ wing of the party.
The only way to avoid that is for the Democrats to provide sufficient information that will make voters think they know the positive side of each candidate’s record and biography. For Harris – whom some denigrate as a "DEI hire" – it means letting people know about her record and how she says she worked her way up from prosecutor, to District Attorney, to California attorney general, senator, and then vice president. For Walz, it’s about presenting his Midwestern Tom Sawyer-esque childhood – and how he spent years as a teacher, coach, National Guardsman, congressman and governor.
Campaigns often hate focusing on candidate biographies. It’s seen as old-fashioned, and, especially with well-known candidates (like a sitting vice president) unnecessary. There’s a long list of failed candidacies that failed to promote the candidate’s strengths – and allow the opposition to fill in voters’ understanding with negative information (every person has negative information).
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The Republicans did a pretty good job of introducing their V.P. candidate, JD Vance with their V.P. candidate’s biography. The question is – how well will the Democrats introduce their two – little-known – candidates – who, without winning a single primary vote, are suddenly 270 Electoral College votes away from the White House?
3. Are they convincing voters that Donald Trump – and even Joe Biden – are part of the past?
While they need to try to get better grades for Biden – they also need to figure out a way to relegate the Trump -Biden (and even the Obama-Clinton) divisions to the past. They need to argue that "America should turn the page."
There is a generational difference between Harris and Trump – and Harris and Biden. Indeed, one of the major sources of the apparent enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket is the support for Harris among younger voters – who were either undecided about the election – or unenthusiastic about going to the polls to cast their vote for the 81-year-old Biden. It’s not just about the Beyonce soundtrack – it’s about the voters who respond to the music. To an extent, Trump, who seems to spend a great deal of time talking about the record of his administration and his historical fights with the Biden administration and Democrats – provides a useful foil for the Harris folks.
There will be a great deal of talk about Donald Trump in Chicago. Surprising as it seems, I suspect most of it will be negative. Democrats have been saying negative things about the former president for many years. Voters know that -- but almost 50% of American voters are ready to vote for him again. The Democrats aren’t going to chip away at his support with more negative statements. But they might be able to get folks to decide that, yes, it’s time to for a "new generation."
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The question remains: Will Democrats be able to take advantage of that and ensure that their convention outlines broadly what they want to accomplish in a Harris presidency? Joe Biden never seemed to have a theme that tied together what he was trying to accomplish as president – and that made it difficult for his 2020 campaign (even though he won) – and for his administration. Will the Harris people make their case for the presidency in Chicago – or will they solely focus on maximizing people’s negative views of Trump?
Those are the three things to look for over the four days of the televised infomercial – also known as the Democratic National Convention – which is probably the Party’s best chance to both firm up the apparent support of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and to chip away at Donald Trump’s solid support among 48% of the electorate.
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